{"id":139281,"date":"2020-10-10T03:26:03","date_gmt":"2020-10-09T21:56:03","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/arunachaltimes.in\/?p=139281"},"modified":"2020-10-10T03:26:03","modified_gmt":"2020-10-09T21:56:03","slug":"nitish-banking-on-bjp","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/arunachaltimes.in\/index.php\/2020\/10\/10\/nitish-banking-on-bjp\/","title":{"rendered":"Nitish banking on bjp"},"content":{"rendered":"

Bihar Elections<\/strong><\/h3>\n

\nBy Sagarneel Sinha<\/strong>
\nFor the past 15 years, barring one-odd year, JD(U) President Nitish Kumar has been Bihar\u2019s Chief Minister mostly with the support of the BJP. For a brief period, his government had to rely on support of Congress, CPI and independents and later for two years, with the help of his foe-turned-friend RJD, which turns out to be an arch rival again. But now, Nitish\u2019s graph is plummeting, particularly due to his flip flops \u2014 quitting the NDA in 2013 to ally with RJD in 2015 and again returning back to NDA in 2017. And if this is not enough, he has earned the ire of the migrants for initial failure to efficiently bring them back to their homes during the lockdown.
\nAccording to a recent survey done by C-Voter, 57% of the people in the State have expressed anger against the Chief Minister. This means that Nitish, for the first time, is facing a strong anti-incumbency wave. But the same survey also says that he is preferred by around 30% i.e. double than that of RJD\u2019s Tejashwi Yadav, the chief ministerial face of the Mahagatbandhan, which also includes the Congress and the three Left parties, CPI, CPI (M) and CPI (ML).
\nHowever, Nitish knows that the voter support isn\u2019t enough for him to return back to power, plus a section that presently wants him as back as Chief Minister isn\u2019t that fond of him. Another survey of C-Voter done earlier this year along with IANS pointed out that Prime Minister Narendra Modi has an approval rating of 58% in the State. This clearly shows the attractiveness of BJP here, which with Modi\u2019s popularity has been able to penetrate among non-Yadav & non-Kurmi OBC voters, Dalit and Maha Dalit voters.
\nIn 2015 Assembly elections, when the Mahagatbandhan (JD-U + RJD + Congress) combine won with a thumping majority banking on Yadav-Koeri-Muslim combination, BJP-led NDA had an upper hand of support among these non-forward caste social groups. This is quite significant because BJP earlier was known as party of the forward castes.
\nJD(U) is well aware of this ground reality. That\u2019s why the party has had a climb down on seat-sharing with BJP and agreed to contest just one more seat i.e. 122 to that of BJP\u2019s 121. From its share, JD(U) gave seven seats to Jitan Ram Manjhi\u2019s Hindustan Awami Party (Secular), while the BJP allocated 11 seats to Mukesh Sahni-led Vikassheel Insaan Party from its own share. This means JD(U) will contest on 115 seats while BJP on 110 \u2014 a very different picture from that of 2010 Assembly elections when JD(U) contested on 141 and BJP on 102 seats.
\nOne can easily spot the difference between the two NDA partners from the seat sharing compared to that of 2010 and 2015. JD(U) wanted to retain the old formula but finally had to climb down recognising the changing ground reality, although it is on expected lines.
\nAmidst all this, the big surprise that has now emerged is the walking out of the Lok Janshakti Party led by Chirag Paswan from State NDA, protesting against Nitish\u2019s leadership. The LJP declared it would put up candidates against JD(U) but won\u2019t contest against those of BJP. Many political analysts are terming this as a shadow alliance \u2014 designed mainly by BJP high command to marginalise Nitish\u2019s JD(U) through LJP. The same analysts also say that this is BJP\u2019s game plan to deny Nitish the top post after election results and to grab the Chief Minister\u2019s kursi, a long cherished dream of the BJP.
\nImportantly, BJP\u2019s strike rate has always been higher than that of JD(U) and in light of LJP contesting against JD(U), even Nitish\u2019s party fears its tally will be lower than that of BJP. However, not to upset him, the saffron party has announced that if the NDA wins, irrespective of the outcome, Nitish would be Chief Minister from the alliance. One mustn\u2019t forget that in 2015 Assembly polls, RJD emerged as the largest party but Nitish became Chief Minister.
\nTrue that BJP desires to fulfil its dream, but it\u2019s also true that for now it wants Nitish to be NDA\u2019s face, given that the saffron party is aware that despite his declining popularity, he still is ahead of others in the race. Plus, BJP\u2019s State leadership itself is a divided house that banks primarily on Modi\u2019s popularity.
\nAs far as LJP is concerned, Chirag Paswan appears to be somewhat in a hurry to become Chief Minister at least in the next 2025 Assembly polls. He wants to utilise Nitish\u2019s declining popularity plus cash in on Tejashwi Yadav\u2019s failure to fill in the gap. The theory that BJP wants to marginalise Nitish through LJP isn\u2019t that spot on or even if it is, it won\u2019t materialise, barring a few seats, because LJP\u2019s contested vote share in 2015 was 29% to that of BJP\u2019s 38% \u2014 a gap of 9%. LJP then contested 42 seats in alliance with BJP.
\nThus, despite being in an open alliance with BJP, there wasn\u2019t a smooth transfer of BJP\u2019s votes to LJP. That is also the main reason that BJP wasn\u2019t keen to give 42 seats to LJP, which later climbed down to 36 seats, a demand, reported to not being agreed by BJP. In fact, LJP isn\u2019t a pan-Bihar party. Its best performance was in February 2005 Assembly polls, when it won 29 seats. Since then, the party\u2019s fortune has been declining, both in terms of seats and vote share. In 2015 polls, it managed to win only two seats and secured 5% vote share, that too fighting in alliance with BJP.
\nOn the other hand, in both Assembly polls of 2010 and 2005 (October), the vote transfer between JD(U) and BJP was smooth, as both have been traditional partners. Unlike LJP, JD(U) still has a voter base of around 14-16% in the State. That\u2019s why BJP won\u2019t dump JD(U) for LJP, an action that shall only benefit its two arch rivals, RJD and Congress as it happened in 2015. Also JD(U) isn\u2019t Shiv Sena, which too was stubborn to accept the changed ground reality, the rise of BJP, in Maharashtra.
\nBut one thing is certain i.e. if NDA, which is ahead in the race as of now, wins on 10th November, there is a high probability that BJP will get more seats than JD(U), or even if it surprisingly loses, it may still get more seats than JD(U). The most likely scenario after this election is that BJP will replace JD(U) as the leader of one pole, while RJD will continue to play the lead role of the other pole in the state. So, the future road for Nitish isn\u2019t going to be easy even if he retains the Chief Minister\u2019s post, as his party will eventually have to depend on either BJP or RJD. \u2013 INFA<\/p>\n

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Bihar Elections By Sagarneel Sinha For the past 15 years, barring one-odd year, JD(U) President Nitish Kumar has been Bihar\u2019s Chief Minister mostly with the support of the BJP. For a brief period, his government had to rely on support of Congress, CPI and independents and later for two years, with the help of his […]<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":2,"featured_media":0,"comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"footnotes":""},"categories":[16],"tags":[],"class_list":{"0":"post-139281","1":"post","2":"type-post","3":"status-publish","4":"format-standard","6":"category-features"},"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/arunachaltimes.in\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/139281","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/arunachaltimes.in\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/arunachaltimes.in\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/arunachaltimes.in\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/2"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/arunachaltimes.in\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=139281"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/arunachaltimes.in\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/139281\/revisions"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/arunachaltimes.in\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=139281"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/arunachaltimes.in\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=139281"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/arunachaltimes.in\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=139281"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}