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Japan’s New PM<\/strong><\/p>\n \n By Dr. Hab. Beata Bochorodycz<\/strong><\/p>\n (Political scientist, expert, Centre for Intl Relations, Poland)<\/strong><\/p>\n \n Sanae Takaichi became Japan\u2019s first female Prime Minister. Known for her conservative views, she belongs to the Liberal Democratic Party, which has ruled the country for most of its history since the 1950s. The stability of Takaichi\u2019s new cabinet will largely depend on the skillful balancing of political forces within her own party, relations with her coalition partner, the implementation of economic promises and public support.<\/p>\n The 61-year-old Takaichi is a remarkable figure. On the one hand, she is portrayed as an ultra-conservative and nationalist who regularly visits the controversial Yasukuni Shrine, and as a Japanese Margaret Thatcher who longs for a strong and prosperous Japan. On the other hand, her youthful passions for heavy metal music, drumming, a love of motorcycles and fast cars, and a workaholic who sleeps only two to four hours a night are cited. However, it wasn\u2019t her personal qualities that won her the award.<\/p>\n For decades, the next prime minister of Japan has been determined by two main factors: factional infighting within the Liberal Democratic Party (PLD), which has governed, with brief interruptions, since 1955, and public support for the cabinet. Since the late 1990s, a third element has been added: the coalition partner.<\/p>\n \n Faction Fights<\/p>\n The influence of intra-party factions began to wane following the 1993 electoral reform and political financing reform. However, the party and ministerial staffing in the new government demonstrates their continued influence. Takaichi had strong ties to former Prime Minister Shinzo Abe. In the party leadership election, she was supported by Abe\u2019s close ally, Aso Taro, which was reflected in the appointment of key party positions. The cabinet, in which Takaichi\u2019s rivals filled key ministries, ensured a balanced balance of power between the factions\u2014it included fewer women than expected, but the average age of the ministers is lower than in the previous one (59 versus 63).<\/p>\n \n The role of surveys<\/p>\n Public support is a key factor in determining the duration of a government. A drop below 20% usually signals an imminent end to the government. Takaichi began her term with very high approval ratings, exceeding 70% in polls. The stock market also reacted positively. A few days after her election as party leader, the Nikkei 225 index reached a record high, earning it the nickname \u201cTakaichi Trade.\u201d However, history shows that after the \u201choneymoon period,\u201d a government\u2019s popularity quickly declines, and factional infighting often shortens prime ministers\u2019 terms.<\/p>\n \n Coalition partners<\/p>\n Another key factor in the fate of Japanese cabinets is the ability to attract and retain a coalition partner. Since 1994, the PLD has governed through cooperation with other parties, the most important of which, since 1999, has been the small party with Buddhist roots, K\u00f4meit\u00f4. Immediately after Takaichi\u2019s election as party leader, K\u00f4meit\u00f4 unexpectedly ended the alliance, citing platform differences and an attempt to dissociate itself from the PLD\u2019s image, which has been plagued by corruption scandals. The PLD formed a new alliance with the conservative Nippon Ishin no Kai (Ishin for short), or Japan Renewal Association, paving the way for Takaichi to become prime minister. The PLD-Ishin coalition does not have a majority in parliament. Although the Takaichi cabinet\u2019s position is unstable, programmatic convergence with conservative opposition parties, particularly the People\u2019s Democratic Party, offers a chance to remain in power for a longer period.<\/p>\n Economy & Finance<\/p>\n The new PM has presented the basic assumptions of the new government\u2019s policy, taking into account the content of the coalition agreement signed a few days earlier. Learning from the experiences of her mentor, Prime Minister Abe, Takaichi\u2019s Expos\u00e9 focused primarily on economic and financial issues, particularly addressing the rising cost of living. Among the other proposals were a reduction in the consumption tax, the abolition of temporary tax rates on gasoline and heating oil, and subsidies for electricity and gas bills during the winter months. Public support for the government will depend on the effectiveness and speed of these reforms, and the resulting rapid and visible economic recovery and improvement in citizens\u2019 lives .<\/p>\n \n Security<\/p>\n Her second major focus was foreign and security policy. She announced the continuation of the reforms initiated by Abe as part of Free and Open Pacific (FOIP) strategy, which experts refer to as \u201cAbe Cabinet 3.0.\u201d The Japan-US alliance remains the foundation, but Japan is also developing a network of partnerships (e.g., the Quad). In addition to accelerating defence spending growth to 2% of GDP, a revision of key security policy documents and the establishment of a central intelligence agency are planned. The aim is to strengthen Japan\u2019s military capabilities and its international standing in a rapidly changing security environment.<\/p>\n Japan and China<\/p>\n Prime Minister Takaichi, like Abe, is known for her pro-Taiwan views. She considers China, alongside North Korea and Russia, a major threat to Japan\u2019s security. At the same time, she recognizes that China is Japan\u2019s largest trading partner, making economic relations with its powerful neighbor crucial. Takaichi\u2019s expos\u00e9 and first meeting with Xi Jinping point to a continuation of the \u201ccold political, hot economic\u201d model, or in diplomatic terms, a \u201cmutually beneficial relationship based on shared strategic interests.\u201d Diplomatic crises will undoubtedly arise, such as the one sparked by the Prime Minister\u2019s statement on November 7th that a potential Chinese attack on Taiwan could be interpreted as a \u201csituation threatening Japan\u2019s survival,\u201d which would imply the deployment of the Self-Defence Forces.<\/p>\n \n Japan and South Korea<\/p>\n The meeting between Prime Minister Takaichi and President Lee Jae Myung during the APEC Summit took place in a more positive atmosphere than expected. Despite the many challenges stemming from historical experiences, both sides recognize the need for cooperation, especially as US allies and democracies facing threats from North Korea and China\u2019s growing assertiveness. Therefore, we can expect a continuation of \u201cshuttle diplomacy.\u201d Further positive developments in relations will depend on the South Korean president\u2019s ability to deal with the radical left, and the Japanese prime minister\u2019s ability to deal with the ultra-right, each in its own domestic sphere.<\/p>\n \n Japan and ASEAN<\/p>\n Takaichi made her diplomatic debut two days after assuming the premiership at the ASEAN Summit in Kuala Lumpur. There, she reaffirmed the key role of regional countries in implementing Japan\u2019s Free and Open Pacific Strategy (FOIP). Japan, highly trusted in the region, is positioned as a positive alternative to the US-China rivalry.<\/p>\n \n Japan and USA<\/p>\n Immediately after returning from Malaysia, Takaichi hosted US President Donald Trump in Tokyo. She built a positive relationship, capitalizing on Trump\u2019s fondness for the late Prime Minister Abe, but also through declarations to expand defense capabilities and accelerate the increase in GDP spent on military expenditures to 2%. She announced the easing of arms export regulations and cooperation with the US in expanding the shipbuilding industry. Thanks to its experience and technologies, Japan can support the US in its competition with China, including by providing modern warships. Prime Minister Takaichi\u2019s expressive demeanor during the meeting stood out against the traditional reserve of Japanese politicians and was widely commented on in the media as a \u201ccharm offensive\u201d and \u201crock star-like.\u201d How it pans out will be worth a watch. \u2014 INFA<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":" Japan’s New PM By Dr. Hab. Beata Bochorodycz (Political scientist, expert, Centre for Intl Relations, Poland) Sanae Takaichi became Japan\u2019s first female Prime Minister. Known for her conservative views, she belongs to the Liberal Democratic Party, which has ruled the country for most of its history since the 1950s. The stability of Takaichi\u2019s new cabinet […]<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":2,"featured_media":0,"comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"footnotes":""},"categories":[16],"tags":[],"class_list":{"0":"post-275513","1":"post","2":"type-post","3":"status-publish","4":"format-standard","6":"category-features"},"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/arunachaltimes.in\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/275513","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/arunachaltimes.in\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/arunachaltimes.in\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/arunachaltimes.in\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/2"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/arunachaltimes.in\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=275513"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/arunachaltimes.in\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/275513\/revisions"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/arunachaltimes.in\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=275513"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/arunachaltimes.in\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=275513"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/arunachaltimes.in\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=275513"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}