{"id":95220,"date":"2020-03-02T01:16:31","date_gmt":"2020-03-01T19:46:31","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/arunachaltimes.in\/?p=95220"},"modified":"2020-03-02T01:16:31","modified_gmt":"2020-03-01T19:46:31","slug":"his-victory-to-reap-benefits","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/arunachaltimes.in\/index.php\/2020\/03\/02\/his-victory-to-reap-benefits\/","title":{"rendered":"His victory to reap benefits?"},"content":{"rendered":"

Trump In India<\/strong><\/h3>\n

\nBy Shivaji Sarkar<\/strong>
\nThe visit of US President Donald Trump would be remembered for the huge business that India has given him to revive the American economy as well help him in his election for a second term. On the other hand, India gains an international brand image it has created, thanks to Prime Minister Narendra Modi. The head of the most powerful nation, Trump, is obliged to come to his friend, Modi, helping him swell political support at home. This is a reversal of what Indian leaders used to do till some time back by showcasing their gains in a foreign country.
\nTrump has changed that dynamics. He has shown to his countrymen that India matters for changing the course of the US (world!) economy. The $3 billion arms\u2019 deal with India is a large sum to help the US economy, sagging because of the trade war and other domestic issues. In fact, Trump made the right noises for his home audience. Trade remains crucial for him. He harped on his pet peeves like India\u2019s high tariffs, Harley Davidson and others that help his farmer and industry friends.
\nDoes it not affect India? Possibly not. Such deals have many an unsaid part. The political dispensation understands that re-election of a friend has its import. Post-poll many negotiations are possible to reap benefits. That\u2019s a diplomatic risk for creating the right balance between protection and global engagement. This is a precursor to foreign investment.
\nThe American concern for striking the defence deal has its ramifications in its engagement in the Indian subcontinent as also its eagerness to reduce its involvement in Afghanistan. He has carefully improved his relationship with Pakistan and said so at the Motera stadium \u2018Namaste Trump\u2019 rally in Ahmedabad. Trump did not mind calling his relation with Pakistan as \u201ca very good one\u201d. The US has also struck a deal with Taliban, its own creation over 30 years back. It may usher in a new kind of diplomacy and ties in the region.
\nTrump goes satisfied with the copter deal. India is happy with the highly agile sophisticated choppers that apparently give it supremacy over its neighbours. However, India cannot be a mere buyer. It needs transfer of technology and co-production facilitation so that it can be a hub for Asia and Africa. It needs defence technology and trade capabilities to suit the country\u2019s strategic convergences. It is having relationships with other powers and needs to strengthen those alliances for a congenial atmosphere in the subcontinent.
\nOn terrorism his assertion \u201cworking on a positive way with Pakistan\u201d may be a way to read that the US is pressurising Pakistan to smoothen its gradual exit from Afghanistan as it is causing a heavy drain on its resources. A void is emerging and India has to be circumspect and gird up to counter any design of its western neighbours.
\nIt also has to make up with the Democrats, who control the House, so that the benefit that has been edged out of Trump is not seen as partisan. Balancing the relationship with other political entities in the US is an equal need to ensure that it is accepted as an American deal. That is how the US industry would perceive. In diplomacy, different formations have to be on board so that whosoever sees appears beneficial to it. Leaders matter in international issues but a country has to move pragmatically.
\nTrump has sought lifting of caps on foreign investment and for making rules more \u201ctransparent\u201d and lowering tariffs to get market access in India. No future US leader could budge from it. That is the challenge the Indian leadership would have. Even the ruling BJP has to take care of its own in-house allies such as the Swadeshi Jagaran Manch (SJM). Under the SJM pressure, the NDA government withdrew from the RCEP causing some unhappiness among ASEAN countries.
\nIndia has its concern too. Its economy is at a plateau and even Moody\u2019s predict that the growth in 2020-21 would be \u201cshallow\u201d and \u201cslower\u201d around 5.4 per cent. This is less than the budgetary projection.
\nThen there are noises also about high repatriation of profits abroad. It is not easy for the NDA government to open up to Trump\u2019s demands. It could be understood as Trump\u2019s election rhetoric but the successive US rulers of any colour would harp on it.
\nTrump is looking at the 4 million Indian American constituency as well as wants to show that he has won jobs back home. That would be pressure on any US leader after the November election.
\nIndia has its problems. It is aiming at creating a $5 trillion economy. It is not easy. Inflation is inching at a higher level and growth is not matching it. It is pressurising the rupee against the dollar. If it yields more benefits to the US economy, it can help the US increase its imports but put severe pressure on Indian economy. The demanded freer entry of US farm goods and other products may hit India\u2019s own critical domestic production.
\nIts negative impact will be on the rupee and many other aspects. If the US inflation increases, may be up to 7.5 per cent, as World Bank former Chief Economist Kaushik Basu says, then only or if India achieves a growth of 10.5 per cent it can sprint to its goal. Both are unlikely.
\nSo what Trump says a defining partnership of the 21st century extends beyond defence to oil and natural gas. It gives India energy security and adds $10 billion to the US economy.
\nMore deals from the US are guaranteed as the US wants to create an alternative to its ties with China. Trump emphasised how large a volume of trade he has with India. For Modi, who is trying to liberate Indian economy from its Nehruvian shadow of protectionism, it is a challenge to make it as large as the largest world economy \u2013 the US. India has to chart out strategically conceding a little at times but trying to grab the major chunk.
\nDiplomacy has become more subtle, competitive, noisy and nosy. India has done well in the past five years. Modi liberates the economy and can lead it in world trade. Whatever Trump has added is a new facet and India can steal the show in the coming years if it can live up to competition.\u2014INFA<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

Trump In India By Shivaji Sarkar The visit of US President Donald Trump would be remembered for the huge business that India has given him to revive the American economy as well help him in his election for a second term. On the other hand, India gains an international brand image it has created, thanks […]<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":2,"featured_media":0,"comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"footnotes":""},"categories":[16],"tags":[],"class_list":{"0":"post-95220","1":"post","2":"type-post","3":"status-publish","4":"format-standard","6":"category-features"},"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/arunachaltimes.in\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/95220","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/arunachaltimes.in\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/arunachaltimes.in\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/arunachaltimes.in\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/2"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/arunachaltimes.in\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=95220"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/arunachaltimes.in\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/95220\/revisions"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/arunachaltimes.in\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=95220"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/arunachaltimes.in\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=95220"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/arunachaltimes.in\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=95220"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}