Taiwan’s Future
Dr Maciej Gaca
(Centre for International Relations, Poland)
Taiwan’s presidential vote in 2020 was over 74 per cent and in 2024 76 per cent, which testifies to the strong and enduring involvement of the society in the country’s democratic process. The Chinese-language Liberty Times notes that a month before the American elections, Taiwanese President Lai Ching-te outlined his vision for the island’s future in a dynamically changing geopolitical situation. It is based on three assumptions: strengthening democracy, building social inclusiveness, and defending sovereignty.
Taiwan’s future will depend on the ability to balance between the fight to maintain a political system different from the People’s Republic of China and the need to develop such civic activity as is evidence of the maturity of Taiwanese democracy and its deep roots in society.
In his October speech, President Lai strongly emphasised Taiwan’s historical aspirations for democracy and freedom. Referring to the revolution of 113 years ago, he emphasised that republican and democratic ideals are the basis of national identity. Remembering events such as the Battle of Guningtou and the Kaohsiung Incident reminds us that the road to today’s democracy was paved with the sacrifice and determination of many generations. “Although we came to this land at different times and belonged to different communities, we defended Taiwan together,” Lai noted.
This highlights the ethnic and cultural diversity of the island, where the indigenous people, Hakka, Hoklo and new immigrants co-create a social mosaic. Comments in Taiwanese media can also be read in this spirit. United Daily News, among others, writes that the government plans to increase investment in intercultural education and support programs for ethnic minorities in order to build a society based on equality and mutual respect.
CommonWealth Magazine draws attention to growing social inequalities and the need to reduce them. Initiatives such as housing programs for the young and fighting poverty are crucial to building a cohesive society. At the same time, they pose the greatest risk of losing votes if they fail.
In the social sphere, the president announced a series of initiatives aimed at improving the quality of life of citizens. Support programs for young parents, investments in education and healthcare are priorities for his administration. According to the 2023 “Social Development Report”, the government plans to increase spending on social welfare by 15 per cent over the next five years.
Relations with the PRC are the most important challenge for Taiwan’s foreign policy. President Lai has made it clear that the Republic of China and the People’s Republic of China are not subordinate to each other. This is a continuation of his earlier position, which rejects the concept of “one China” in agreement with Beijing’s interpretation. At the same time, the president expressed his willingness to cooperate with China on global issues such as climate change and public health. China Times notes that this approach is an attempt to find common ground for dialogue without renouncing sovereignty. This is important, as the largest daily is known for its political sympathies located on the side of the opposition Nationalist Party (KMT).
Apple Daily notes that Taiwanese society is showing increasing support for strengthening defence, especially in the face of more frequent violations of airspace by Chinese armed forces. Taiwan is actively participating in international military exercises and is strengthening cooperation with countries with similar democratic values. President Lai is seeking to strengthen relations with allies in the region and in the international arena to balance the influence of the People’s Republic of China. Through strategic partnerships with countries such as Japan, Australia and India, Taiwan wants to maintain stability in the Asia-Pacific region. According to data from the Ministry of National Defence, the defence budget for 2023 amounted to a record 2.4 per cent of GDP, reflecting a growing sense of threat. The president announced an intensification of efforts to strengthen the country’s defence capabilities.
The “Four Pillars of Peace” plan includes modernising the armed forces, increasing the defence budget, and developing the defence industry. One element of building Taiwan’s strength is investment in innovation and sustainable development. According to the Ministry of Economy, semiconductor exports in 2022 exceeded 45 per cent of the country’s total exports. Initiatives such as the Asia Silicon Valley plan are aimed at further developing the technology sector, with an emphasis on artificial intelligence, the Internet and 5G.
President Lai emphasises the importance of an innovation-based economy, especially in the technology sector. Taiwan is a world leader in semiconductor production, and companies such as TSMC play a key role in global supply chains. Media outlets such as Economic Daily News often point out that investments in green energy and ecological technologies are key to achieving the goals of carbon neutrality by 2050.
In the face of growing tensions with the People’s Republic of China and global challenges, Taiwan is focusing on democracy, inclusiveness and innovation. Public support, strengthening international alliances and consistent implementation of strategic goals can make Taiwan not only a regional leader, but also a model for other countries striving for democracy and sovereignty.
On the other hand, the international community is increasingly appreciating Taiwan’s role as a stable and democratic partner in the region. In the perspective of global problems such as the COVID-19 pandemic, climate change or the refugee crisis in the Middle East since 2012, Taiwan has proven its ability to cooperate and provide assistance to other countries. — INFA