Dealing with Pak
By Dr. DK Giri
(Professor of Practice, NIIS Group of Institutions)
India’s foreign policy has been driven historically by three determinants – Pakistan (because of Kashmir), non-alignment (now strategic autonomy or multi-alignment) and economic growth (previously culture and civilizational values). Today, I intend to deal with Pakistan as it has just challenged India´s diplomacy and defence by retaliating to India´s assault on terror. How should New Delhi deal with Pakistan from now on?
In the paradigm-shifting speech made on 12 May, Prime Minister Narendra Modi outlined the new strategy with regard to Pakistan. This seems to become the new normal. It may be in order for observers, commentators and scholars to decode the strategy. But before we do so, it is equally important to comprehend the parameters of Pakistani state prompting policies vis-à-vis India. This will help execute Prime Minister´s Pakistan policy with sub-strategies which the Prime Minister could not have said as the head of the state.
The state of Pakistan has been standing on three legs – Kashmir, Islam and its army. Two of those have broken and the third is tottering. Pakistan was created as an Islamic state. But religion as the basis of state formation proved to be untenable. If not, why did Pakistan break-up on the lines of language in creation of Bangladesh, which is also an Islamic state?
As a former part of India, Pakistan at its creation was a diverse country with Hindus, Christians, and multiple sects of Muslims inhabiting it. But the leadership encouraged the dominant Punjabi Sunni Muslims undermine other sects and cultural identities. Consequently, there have been sporadic protests against Punjabi domination by Baluchs, Sindhis and Pakhtuns.
Also, take the case of the biggest religious minority, that is Hindus. They were about 24 per cent of the total population at the time of creation of Pakistan. Now they are less than 1 per cent. This dismal figure points to the ruthless persecution of Hindus. Ahmediyas, another sect among the Muslims, are facing violent extermination in Pakistan. Baluchistan has already declared independence and is waiting for a day it can carve out a separate state by defying Pakistan military, which has kept them so far by sheer brute force. Sindhis and Pakhtuns will follow suit. At the time of writing, Sindhis are protesting against discriminatory water shortage as the demonstrators have set afire the house of the Home Minister of Sindh.
Kashmir is out of reach of Pakistan. The present government’s tough stand on Kashmir and reclaiming PoK should rattle the Pakistanis, but not quite. Pakistan survives economically by sponsoring terrorism in Kashmir. By playing the victim card on Kashmir, Pakistan continues to beg for funds from rich Sunni Muslim countries and the West. Kashmir also serves the political leadership in Pakistan as they mobilise electoral support by dangling to the voters the beautiful valley of Kashmir, which they promise to secure.
Former Prime Minister Zulfiqar Ali Bhutto had vowed to inflict thousand cuts on India to snatch Kashmir. So, Pakistan will keep the Kashmir issue burning until India puts PoK on the table and finally retrieves it. That is the solution to the Kashmir problem.
New Delhi should not also lose track of Chinese involvement with Pakistan. As Pakistan plans to continue the proxy war with India through terrorism, Beijing wants to undercut New Delhi by egging on Islamabad.
The third leg, Pakistan army is more a business operator than a fighting force. It is a mercenary army. Various countries in the world have governments and armies for their security, but Pakistan army has a country in its grip to further its vested interests. The army is steeped in corruption, money laundering etc. Gen Asif Munir may self-promote himself as the Field Marshal to cover his weakness and inefficiency, but the lid is wide open for the world to see in the fight. It will fall some day or the other in the face of challenges by forces of liberation like Baluchs, Pakhtuns and Sindhis. A truncated army will be of no use to anyone then.
The strategy adumbrated by the Prime Minister consists of three elements. One, unlike in the past, which Pakistan was comfortable with, India will pursue terrorists and their mentors ‘to the end of the earth’, meaning, deep into the territory of Pakistan. Second, blood and water, or terrorism and trade cannot go together. Unless Pakistani state decouples itself from terror networks existing in its territory, there will be no transaction with India; no people-to-people contact, no Pakistani player or artists in India and no visa processing. Third, if any dialogue has to happen, it will be on terrorism and PoK, nothing else. After these two are resolved, other areas could be opened up.
The above is a long-due masculine statesmanship aimed at achieving India’s interests and security. What the Prime Minister could not say in public is that Pakistan is a failed state and beyond redemption. It should not be allowed to be a pawn in the power games played earlier by USA and now China. The process of fragmentation on ethnic lines should be aided, into at least four states – Pakistan (Punjab), Baluchistan, Sindhistan and Pakhtunistan. The precedent of former Yugoslavia is a case in point. This is the way Pakistan and its constituents could stay in peace free from the oppressive clutch of the army.
New Delhi should continue the ‘Operation Sindoor’ in one way or the other till India’s purpose of terrorism-free security is served. The operation is not only against Pakistan, by extension, it is also against its new Godfather China. This is an opportunity for New Delhi to kill two birds with one stone. Of course, admittedly, India´s defence and diplomacy will have to be at their best to achieve the long-term purpose of ‘Operation Sindoor’.
India’s Defence Forces have demonstrated their capacity to punish Pakistan for their irresponsible adventurism. The indigenously produced BrahMos missile have outperformed their counterparts. There is a huge scope for India trading in this missile with countries that have shown interest, subject to some technical formalities. Ironically, the latest confrontation with Pakistan, an 88-hour battle has exposed some pitfalls while opening many possibilities.
The world will now look at India differently. It is for New Delhi to maintain the resolve in overwhelming Pakistan in diplomacy as well as security and check China´s surreptitious moves against India. At the same time, India should begin to count its friends while identifying the adversaries. This is necessary in an inter-dependent world, not isolation in the name of strategic autonomy. It is also time for a serious rethink and recalibration of India´s foreign policy. — INFA