Exporting People, Importing Turmoil
By Shivaji Sarkar
Nepal has become the latest flashpoint of instability in the Indian subcontinent, echoing Bangladesh’s violent turn last year. The sudden collapse of Prime Minister KP Sharma Oli’s government—amid Parliament set ablaze, ministers chased out of their homes, and Finance Minister Ramesh Mahat hounded by mobs—has laid bare a crisis long brewing beneath the surface.
Interestingly, the banned social media has emerged as the tech for evolving a new political consensus of “electing” a new leader. The social media chat termed “Discord” is used to have consensus on the new leader, Justice Sushila Karki, as new prime minister, through a virtual nationwide public vote, under the “principle of necessity” as she is not a member of parliament. The Gen Z youth, targeting politicians to businesses, many in their teens participated in the voting. Karki is stated to have got over lakh votes in a two-day open countrywide discussion. She, unlike in Bangladesh, has decided the election date on March 5, 2026.
Will Nepal now transform, march on economic progress and create jobs? It definitely heralds new possibilities. May be the entire Indian subcontinent can learn to have transparent political discourse through the new system.
Nepal’s trigger may have been politics and its graft, but the fire is fuelled by economics. According to the World Bank, youth unemployment in Nepal stands at 20.8 per cent—among the highest in Asia. For those aged 15–24, the reality is stark: jobs at home are scarce, wages are meagre, and the only path to survival is migration.
On September 8, as protests intensified, Nepal Army units opened fire on crowds in Kathmandu. At least 30 people were killed and over 300 injured. The army chief, General Ashok Raj Sigdel, attempted to open dialogue with the so-called “Gen Z protesters,” much like his Bangladeshi counterpart a year earlier. But by then, the streets had turned unforgiving. The violence that followed was apparently leaderless, yet calculated—homes of former prime ministers, ministers, and ruling elites were selectively targeted, suggesting deeper organizational forces and interests at play. They included monarchists, their religious sympathisers and interests opposed to them for establishing a fair system.
The hands of some foreign powers, businesses and even social application providers are stated to have played their roles. There are stark similarities with the developments in Bangladesh and Sri Lanka, both had problems of graft, unemployment, sinking economy and morass.
A major part of Nepal’s working-age youth seek employment abroad, mainly in India, the Gulf, and Malaysia. Their remittances are a lifeline, contributing a staggering 33.1 per cent of GDP—one of the highest remittance-to-GDP ratios in the world.
It has its headwind. The Nepal currency sees artificial strength adding to difficulties for its exports, which have become expensive in the international market.
Between 1996 and 2023, Nepal managed an average GDP growth of 4.2 per cent, slower than most peers in Asia. Poverty, while officially reduced from 97.1 per cent in 1999 to 52.6 per cent today, remains high. And inequality has worsened, with wealth concentrated in a few ethnic business groups. The economy is in private hands but not in public interest and job creation has not been the priority.
Political instability has only worsened matters: 14 governments in 17 years have kept long-term policy off the table. Inflation is another flashpoint. Prices of rice, lentils, vegetables, and fuel have surged, largely due to Nepal’s heavy reliance on import. The World Bank notes that Nepal’s inflation is “persistently above the regional average,” eroding real wages.
That frustration boiled over when the government banned 26 social media platfoms—the only outlet for a silenced public. Even the pro-establishment Kantipur Post was torched. Army chief Ashok Raj Sigdel, much like his Bangladeshi counterpart a year earlier, stepped in, urging Gen Z protesters to dialogue. Instead, his forces opened fire in Kathmandu on September 8, killing 19 people and injuring over 300.
Any instability in the Nepal is a cause of concern for India. The Western Theatre Command of China sits right across Nepal. Nepal’s political churn has consequences not just for the nation of 3 crore people, but for the broader region. It’s a chosen route for Pakistan for creating trouble in Bangladesh and India. The new government of Karki, supposedly friendly to India, may be easy to deal with and allow hand holding for a prosperity that Nepal pines for.
Nepal’s meltdown carries lessons for the region. For one, exporting youth cannot be a sustainable development model. Second, suppressing dissent only fuels unrest. Third, armies stepping Nepal and Bangladesh in as crisis managers may stabilize the streets temporarily, but they cannot substitute for accountable governance.
The parallels raise troubling questions for the Indian subcontinent’s stability. Can countries in the region survive without meaningful economic delivery? Is the reliance on migration and remittances a sustainable model? And what role will armies, historically influential in both Bangladesh and Nepal, play in the political vacuum?
It should be a lesson for India to reconsider reviving the SAARC and the spirit of regional cooperation. Apart, it is necessary to have closer exchange of news flows within the region. No news channel has presence in the neighbourhood, springing surprises too often. The youth upheaval and Nepal’s ‘Discord’ chat is a lesson for all governments to allow open access to the people in rebuilding the subcontinent.
Nepal is not “someone else’s crisis”; it directly impacts India through migration, trade, open borders, and security. An unstable Nepal means disrupted trade routes and greater Chinese leverage. A more engaged India can stabilize the neighbourhood.
India and Nepal are major trading partners, with New Delhi exporting goods worth $7.32 billion to Kathmandu in 204-25, while imports into India stood at $1.2 billion. India transports most of its goods to Nepal via road, as the Himalayan nation is landlocked. Nepal needs to resume border trade to avoid shortage of essentials.
Nepal’s crisis is thus not mere street rage. It shows sparks of new participative political sagacity and hopes amid a deeper economic suffocation: joblessness, stalled growth, elite capture, and policy paralysis. The youth are trying to retrieve the country from a system that has stolen their future. May be, it would usher in a new governance model across the subcontinent. — INFA