The East-West face-off over Ukraine has reached dangerous levels following Russian President Vladimir Putin’s provocative move to invade Ukraine. Earlier, he had announced recognizing the independence of the two restive regions – Donetsk and Luhansk – in Eastern Ukraine. The West, led by the US, has issued a series of strong sanctions and is further expected to announce more harsh measures as Russian forces continue to march inside Ukraine. This is by far the most intense confrontation since the collapse of the Soviet Union and could have far-reaching implications for the global economy and trade. For India, which has been banking on a peaceful resolution of the crisis through diplomatic negotiations, the challenges are quite daunting.
It has to strike a delicate balance between its historical friendship with Russia and the growing strategic ties with the United States while constantly fending off the threats from China. So far, New Delhi has taken a neutral stand on the Ukraine crisis and couched its statements in safe phrases, without having to condemn Moscow’s aggression. However, as the situation escalates further, India will no longer have the luxury of a neutral approach. Moscow’s actions are becoming increasingly indefensible. India cannot remain silent if Russian troops invade Ukraine while taking a tough stand on China’s territorial expansionism. In the event of a full-blown war erupting in the region, the European nations will prefer to toe the American line rather than continue to pin hopes on peaceful negotiations. This reduces the efficacy of India’s European initiative. The escalation of the situation will impact the rest of the world as oil prices are already touching $100 a barrel and most major economies, including India, are facing high inflation and struggling to recover from the pandemic. Moreover, India will be faced with tough choices on defence supplies from Russia with the US getting ready to impose sanctions. Curtailing of defence supplies will impact India’s ability to respond to China’s aggression.