By Inder Jit
(Released on 4 December 1984)
Poll talk dominates all else. The guessing game is on again. Newsmen commentators and anyone who appears to have some clue about the mood of the voters and the possible outcome of the forthcoming general election to the Lok Sabha are in great demand. So also are the astrologers who are better placed than most others. They have at least the Bhrigu Samhita and the stars to go by. Not only those in seats of authority and their cohorts but hundreds of others all over the country are busy getting them to peer into the future. Those anxious to retain power or aspiring to membership of Parliament want help to determine their prospects and tactics. Celestial guidance is also being sought by scores of captains of industry and others to decide on the political horses they should specifically back — and the best way they should hedge their bets. Seasoned politicians and observers alone prefer not to commit themselves and speak in parables. Candidly, talk in terms of numbers is wild at any time. It is even more so today — three weeks before the poll. Anything can happen between now and then.
Nevertheless, certain broad trends are discernible. Dame Fortune continues to smile benignly on Mr Rajiv Gandhi. He has not only got the Prime Ministership of India on a gold platter. He also looks like romping back to power in the poll. No, this assessment is not based on the feelings of the men around young Rajiv. It is based on informal soundings of some top Opposition leaders. One Janata leader, known for his political horse sense, gave the Congress-I between 250 and 275 seats out of 515 being contested. Another said: “Our friend is being cautious. I would give Rajiv anywhere from 275 to 300 seats.” A top BJP leader agreed later the same day. He told me: “Rajiv will easily get a majority even 300 seats.” A top Lok Dal leader and another top BJP leader differed in their assessments. Both separately said: “No one will get a clear majority. Rajiv will get only 100 seats.” Who would win the remaining 415 seats? I asked. There was some humming and hawing, but no answer. Eventually, both said: “Arre bhai, one can only make wild guesses”.
Several factors seem to favour Mr Rajiv Gandhi and his Congress-I, not the least of which is the tragic failure of the Opposition to unite and offer the country a credible alternative. Consequently, the Congress-I alone today offers the people a one-party government. No other party has fielded enough candidates to provide a government by itself. In fact, the Opposition does not even offer a coalition government, let alone a stable regime. This is of basic importance against the backdrop of past experience. In the post-1967 period, people voted against the Congress and for SVD coalitions in U.P. and elsewhere. But the experiment flopped. In 1977, people voted for the Janata, assured that they were backing one party and not an SVD. Yet the Janata leaders not only let themselves down but also the country. Self and personal ambitions were once again put before the country and we all saw the dream of a healthy two-party democracy come to a sudden tragic end. Little solid has been done by these leaders over the past five years to repair the damage.
No less important are the positive factors which seem to have encouraged the voters to view Mr. Rajiv Gandhi as a person who can give the country a stable Government. First and foremost, the people at large seem impressed by the poise, dignity and fortitude with which Mr. Gandhi conducted himself in the wake of Indira Gandhi’s assassination. True, not everyone was able to the day-long telecasts during the period. But the message appears to have spread widely. Remember, the 1977 poll threw up something altogether new in the field of communication. The media alone is not the message. The message is the message – its own carrier. The word about the Janata spread like wildfire to all nooks and corners of our country in short time even when it had little access to AIR and Doordarshan. Mr. Rajiv Gandhi, it is conceded, is an unknown quantity as Prime Minister. But the important thing from the Congress-I viewpoint is that he appears to have inspired hope and confidence among the common people.
Thinking and educated people have their own yardstick. They prefer not to be carried away merely by what they saw on Doordarshan and thereby establish their “superiority and sophistication” over the average voter — at least in their own eyes. However, they too, are impressed, though for different reasons. They are impressed by the fact that Mr. Gandhi has the background of a good and steady pilot. This ensures that he understands the importance of three things: the machine, the system and discipline without which he could not have taken off, sustained himself in the air or safely landed back. In fact, Mr. Gandhi recently said the same to a top industrialist when the latter complained that trucks and cars burnt during the recent riots in Delhi were still lying around. Reportedly said Mr Gandhi: “Unfortunately, nothing gets done except when the Prime Minister himself orders… As an airlines pilot, I know I can do well only if I have a good co-pilot and, indeed, a good team in which the hostess and all others do their respective jobs.”
Nevertheless, certain broad trends are discernible. Dame Fortune continues to smile benignly on Mr Rajiv Gandhi. He has not only got the Prime Ministership of India on a gold platter. He also looks like romping back to power in the poll.
Not only that. Mr Gandhi is expected to get powerful support both from the youth and women. Large sections among the youth are happy to see a younger person at the helm – a person who they feel is likely to reflect better the hopes and aspirations of their generation. Most women find him “very handsome and charming”, to quote an expression used by scores of women over the past few weeks. (Women libbers will, no doubt, protest. But we cannot ignore basic facts of life and human nature.) Actually, Mr Gandhi’s popularity with the fair voters brings to my mind an interesting experience of the 1952 British general election. In the course of my travel, I also visited Lamington Spa, the constituency of Sir Anthony Eden, Britain’s handsome Foreign Secretary. But I was told that Sir Anthony was never required to campaign. He merely plastered the town with his portraits and repeatedly won hands down. The reason? All the women voters invariably turned up to poll and, after taking a good look at his winsome portrait, voted for him enthusiastically saying: “Oh, Anthony, ain’t he ‘andsome!”
Many doubts were raised in regard to young Rajiv’s capacity to play politics or, more specifically, poll politics in the wake of Mrs Gandhi’s assassination. But Mr Gandhi, aided by Mr Arun Nehru, Mr Arun Singh, Mr M.L. Fotedar and a few other select friends, has taken even his supporters and sympathisers pleasantly by surprise. First, he did not seek any postponement of the poll. Instead, he expressed himself in favour of a poll at the earliest. (Initially, Mrs Gandhi also favoured a poll in the last week of December. But she then opted for the first week of January.) Second, he has not made sweeping changes in the Congress list and limited these to the barest minimum for the present. Third, he has largely tied down two top Opposition leaders, Mr. Hemwati Bahuguna, Atal Behari Vajpayee, to their constituencies by putting up the matinee idol Amitabh Bachchan and Mr. Madhav Rao Scindia respectively against them in a surprise move. Mr. Bahuguna and Mr. Vajpayee were otherwise expected to spend most of their time campaigning for others both in the Hindi heartland and elsewhere in the country.
What about the opposition and its leaders? Barring unforeseen circumstances and a miracle, they seem to have missed the bus once again. The average voter appears psychologically ready for a change without doubt, he is disenchanted and disillusioned with the ruling party. It has largely failed to keep most of its poll promises. What is worse, the nation’s plate, already over full, has now Punjab and other problems added on top. (According to Mr. Charan Singh, more than 60 per cent of India’s population now lives below the poverty line as against 35 per cent earlier.) Nevertheless, voters feel there is no one they can really turn to in the Opposition in this hour of crisis. The Janata leader, Mr Chandra Shekhar, the BJP leader, Mr Atal Behari Vajpayee, and the Congress (S) leader, Mr. Sharad Pawar, aroused hopes at one stage. But few talk of them as potential Prime Ministers – at least for the present. Mr. Charan Singh’s name comes up repeatedly. But then he appears to have few takers outside his strongholds in U.P. and Haryana.
Indira Gandhi’s assassination created overnight an altogether new situation. It opened up political prospects and possibilities. Power seemed within the Opposition’s grasp in a country which still largely respects age and believe that youth is no substitute for experience. Yet, all this has been missed by the Opposition. All, they had to do was to dismount from their high horses, put country before self and unite. Instead, each was once again lured by the prospects of Prime Ministership — the pie in the sky. Tragically, they could not even agree on adjustment of seats in the crucial Hindi heartland — the States of U.P. and Bihar which have all along had a decisive voice in the choice of the Government and Prime Minister at the Centre. Different formulae were put forward for division of seats. But each got shot down eventually. As a top Opposition leader explained: “Since no party is expected to win a majority, everyone is desperately trying to win as many seats as possible in the hope of being strong enough to play a decisive role in the new picture that emerges after the election.”
Consequently, we have lost another opportunity of taking India towards a healthier and more purposeful two-party or three-party system. Most constituencies look like witnessing multi-corner contests in which the will of the people seldom gets reflected truly
What the poll will eventually yield is anybody’s conjecture. It is a pity, however, that Mr Charan Singh, Mr Vajpayee and Mr Chandra Shekhar were unable to bring off in the north what Mr N.T. Rama Rao and Mr R.K. Hegde have been able to achieve in the south by way of seat adjustments. (Mr Hegde expects to bag at least 14 to 16 seats out of a total of 28 seats in Karnataka. In 1980, the Congress-I won 27 seats and Janata only one seat.) Consequently, we have lost another opportunity of taking India towards a healthier and more purposeful two-party or three-party system. Most constituencies look like witnessing multi-corner contests in which the will of the people seldom gets reflected truly. In 1980, Indira Gandhi and her Congress-I polled only 42.5 per cent of the total votes cast. But it won 352 seats in a House of 527 members. The Janata Party polled 18.93 per cent votes but won only 31 seats. Whether Mr Gandhi can do one better than his mother remains to be seen. One thing alone appears clear for the present. If poll guesses are any indication, young Rajiv appears set for a win. — INFA