By Poonam I Kaushish
Circa 5 August 2019: In one fell stroke Article 370 was wiped out from India’s Constitution and Jammu & Kashmir State bifurcated into two Union Territories, Ladakh and J&K. Prime Minister Modi-led BJP Government rearranged the State geographically leaving in its wake an uproar of appreciation from across the country and silence and dread in the Valley under unprecedented blanket of security.
Circa 5 August 2024: The fifth anniversary of 5 August 2019′ is looking at the prospect of early Assembly elections September against the backdrop of a debilitating and troublesome security scenario thanks to increased terrorists with over 50 security personnel losing their lives this year.
The UT is facing low intensity conflict supported by Pakistan’s proxies Lashkar-e-Taiba, Jaish-e-Mohammed, Hizbul Mujahideen and their front organizations. Whereby militants have turned the till now safe Jammu region into their playground with frequent surprise encounters.
In fact, in the past two months attacks and ambushes have become regular events, particularly in the southern reaches of Pir Panjal, an area in which the spectre of terrorism had lain dormant for a long time. Among recent scares there was an operation in which two Army officers were killed and two Pakistani terrorists, one of them a Lashkar-e-Taiba sniper and explosives expert, eliminated and another attack on an Army camp in Rajouri last week, in which one soldier was injured.
According to officials over 600 highly trained foreign militants armed with sophisticated modern weaponry and the latest model of communication equipment having encryption which is difficult to intercept have infiltrated and hiding in the thick forest areas of Kupwara, Doda, Poonch and Rajouri areas. The recent removal of the BSF chief and his second in command underlines the seriousness of the security problem.
Worse, they have infiltrated the civil administration and J&K police. Borne out with at least eight Government staffers, including two cops being suspended. More. Local jihadi sleeper cells are active with civilian support in interior areas as locals are unhappy with outsiders being allowed to buy land and settle.
This has given rise to apprehensions that Assembly poll might be further delayed, notwithstanding the Supreme Court deadline. Today, the Valley’s political field is nearly an unrecognisable wasteland. Even the seemingly comfortable regional parties NC and PDP find themselves sans a political narrative post August 2019 as do BJP;s local proxies who are showing signs of crumbling as they have failed to strike roots. New Delhi-blessed Sajad Lone of the Peoples Conference was barely able to save his deposit.
More worrisome is how to counter the inevitability of the ‘Engineer Rashid’ (jailed under UAPA who won the Baramullah Lok Sabha seat against NC’s Omar Abdullah) phenomenon surfacing big time and upsetting national and regional Parties applecart. Reportedly, youth and locals were enamoured by his acts of ‘valour’ in the electoral calculus.
The BJP performance was also unsatisfactory in the elections whereby it lost the solitary Ladakh seat it had won in 2019 and polled far less votes in the two Jammu constituencies, compared to 2019. This despite the Government having a virtual free run Constitutionally and administratively, making changes and experimenting with combinations while curbing any resistance or voices of protest. Mercifully, the Valley has been safe and quiet with tourism at its peak over 21.3 million and counting..
Undeniably, there have been gains on the economic and governance fronts. Last mile delivery of services has improved, over 1000 public utility services have been digitized, major projects are nearing completion with over Rs 6000 crores investment.
Yet, as a senior Government officer said, “One need patience and perseverance for economic and administrative measures to fructify alongside we have to double haste put in place counter-terrorism operations amidst increasing radicalization among the youth. After the Galwan attack in Ladakh the army moved two battalions there which diluted the counter-insurgency grid. Now, two battalions of BSF comprising of 2,000 personnel have been airlifted from Odisha. Emphasis is on improving communications and logistics”.
Politically, people have shown faith in the ballot as underscored by an incident-free poll with a voter turn-out of 58.6%, highest in 35 years in the May poll. And yet it is too early to read the cherry blossoms as work in progress.
Clearly, restoring Statehood requires a calibrated approach and it should begin sooner than later with clear timelines. The Centre needs to realize that the J&K solution must involve the people on the streets as they are the primary stakeholders. As it is only through people’s involvement in governance process that alienation can be addressed.
In the ultimate New Delhi needs a track two approach: fulfilling people’s aspirations, healing the wounds and alienation of the youth promptly, creating employment avenues and development while continuing to deal with terrorism with an uncompromising iron fist to ‘smoke them out.’ Said a Home Ministry official “The Government cannot lose sight of the Kashmir Valley but, at the same time, we need to secure the Jammu region.”
Towards that end it is rolling out a new security matrix to counter targeting of civilians, military personnel and camps by terrorists in recent weeks and months. Deployment of security forces in the area is being rationalised with new combinations. As terrorists might attack highways — “lifelines” between the Valley and Jammu CRPF has been positioned with local cops.
It remains to be seen if the people will be appeased by the promises of development as growth is not the biggest grievance of Kashmiris. It is the unacceptable heavy-handed tactics of the Indian security forces wherein it could be difficult to win the people over.
All Parties who have large student wings should now send delegations to visit Kashmir and spend time with Gen Next listening to them. Despite provocation by Pakistan and its agents to ensure the emotional connect does not take place. Certainly, there will be bad eggs, but one hopes Kashmiris will not spurn a genuine hand of friendship or treat it with violence.
One way out as the Prime Minister asserted is for J&K to regain its Statehood once the situation there normalizes giving people the opportunity to elect a Chief Minister and MLAs in a fair and transparent manner.
New Delhi is confident that its measures to amalgamate Kashmiris into the mainstream will bear fruit. Namely, extending reservation in State Government posts and educational institutions to socially and educationally backward classes to help eradicate discrepancies suffered by them. The Government needs to arrive at a Modus Vivendi with locals by gathering lost threads from the baggage of chequered history and keeping ones ears to the ground to build a ‘Naya Jammu Kashmir.’
It must be remembered that a strong and stable J&K is an anti-traction thesis for Pakistan and the biggest tribute to the pluralist Indian society and its flourishing democracy. Modi has to leave no ‘stone’ unturned to further its national interests and make Kashmiris’ truly feel they belong to India. The Kashmiris’ too need to rise to the occasion. Till then a lasting normalcy remained elusive. (PTI)