India & the Neighbours
By Prof. (Dr.) D.K. Giri
Secy Gen, Assn for Democratic Socialism
The third term of Narendra Modi government began with great deal of goodwill with the neighbours. Barring Pakistan, all other countries were invited to the swearing-in ceremony of the new government. NaMo seemed to be heeding the profound advice given by his predecessor the BJP veteran and the former Prime Minister A.B. Vajpayee who said, “You can change your friends but you cannot change your neighbours”. This obviously means that it is advisable to live in peace and harmony with your neighbours in mutual interest.
The story has been unfolding inauspiciously for the South Asia region for New Delhi. Bangladesh burnt only recently. The embers of fire could still be noticeable. A friendly government led by Sheikh Hasina collapsed and Ms Hasina is a refugee now in India. Maldives had a change of government and consequently, change of power equations tilting towards China. There was quite a bit of bad blood in social media between a couple of Maldivian ministers and the Indian activists in social media. Yet again, there was a change of government in Nepal where supposedly pro-China leader KPS Oli became the Prime Minister again. Ever since, Nepal became a republic, the government has been unsteady in Kathmandu.
The tension and turmoil continue in the South Asian states. Sri Lanka experienced massive protests against the breakdown of its economy causing the President to flee the country. The island country is limping back to normalcy. Pakistan remains politically and economically volatile. Although, there is no formal contact in Pakistan, the adverse developments in the country do have repercussions in India. In particular, whenever Pakistan is in any kind of crisis, the cross-border terrorism dramatically grows in Jammu & Kashmir. There is no exception to this trend in this time around. Afghanistan is relatively quiet but cannot be taken for granted. The Himalayan kingdom of Bhutan is negotiating between Beijing and New Delhi although it has a traditionally close relationship with the latter.
India being the biggest country in the region and for its geo-political interest vis-à-vis China, the onus of keeping the flock together, the countries of South Asia in some kind of harmony within and across the countries, lies on New Delhi. At the same time, the evolving geo-political scenario in South Asia, requires New Delhi to adopt a prudent and pragmatic approach. The upheavals mentioned above – Bangladesh, Sri Lanka, Nepal – underscore the volatility of regional politics and the need for India to help consolidate democracy and good friendly relations in the region.
For New Delhi to be able to give a hand to its neighbours in stabilizing their politics and economies requires some investigation into the causes of tensions in those countries. Some known causes are military interference in civilian administration. Many countries in South Asia have a history of recurring military coups and interventions undermining the democratic institutions and forces. Pakistan is the worst victim of this trend, experiencing direct military rule for nearly half of its existence since independence. The 2021 military coup in Myanmar drew the concern of the entire democratic world. In Bangladesh, the military has stepped in multiple times.
The second cause for unrest and instability is the economic vulnerabilities and external debts. Sri Lanka’s economic crisis in 2022 is a stark example of this feature. Its external debt reached an all-time high causing negative impact on the economy which led to countrywide protests. Pakistan’s external debt amounted to USD 130 billion in 2022 out of which China accounted for 30% making Islamabad dependent on Beijing. Third, South Asian countries have not been able to diversify their economies which render them vulnerable to fluctuations in the market. Bangladesh depends on the garment industry for 80% of its exports. But, as the garment demand globally fluctuates, the economy of Bangladesh flounders. Likewise, tourism sector of Maldives contributes about 28% to its GDP exposing it to external socks like Covid-19 pandemic which squeezed its economy.
Fourth, geo-political competitions: in order to penetrate into South Asian countries, China in competition with India, is investing in infrastructure. In Pakistan, it is doing so through China-Pakistan Economic Corridor. In Sri Lanka, the 99-year lease of Hambantota port increases Beijing’s influence. Nepal is drawing investment from China on infrastructure projects while balancing India and China in its foreign affairs. The political structures in South Asia are yet to take deep roots. The Economist Intelligence Units’ Democracy Index puts most South Asian countries into the categories of either flawed democracy or hybrid regimes.
The consequence of the foregoing structural problems pose challenges for India vis-à-vis her neighbourhood. To cite some of them, the India-Pakistan relations remains frozen with continued tensions over Kashmir fuelled by cross-border terrorism. Pakistan’s growing proximity with China poses strategic challenges for India. The recent terrorist attacks in the district of Jammu, sponsored by Pakistan make things worse. The relations with Bangladesh become uncertain. The interim government in Dhaka is headed by a non-political Nobel laureate professor of economics. Although he is well-meaning, knows India well, will he be able to navigate through the key issues between two countries – managing share water resources, particularly Teesta River, the question of illegal migration and maintaining economic cooperation!
With Sri Lanka, the Katchatheevu island issue and treatment of Tamil minorities through the implementation of the 13th Amendment to its Constitution, continue to engage both the countries. Maldives, after the recent election of a pro-China President, tilted towards Beijing. External Affairs Minister Jaishankar visited Maldives last week from Friday to Sunday to reset ties. Maldivian Foreign Ministry hailed his visit as a significant milestone in bilateral relations. This was the first high-level visit from New Delhi after President Mohamed Muizzu, seen as a pro-China leader, assumed office last November.
Nepal has been shaky in its government formation with the frequent change of equations and leadership. The Foreign Secretary Vikram Misri was on an official visit to Nepal on 11th and 12th August to consolidate ties. He met his counterpart Sewa Lamsal to update on development projects including the big ticket projects in hydropower and connectivity. The discussions touched on ‘various bilateral initiatives and development projects and opportunities for further collaboration’.
All in all, as regional dynamics and challenges continue to evolve, New Delhi’s commitment to fostering peace and stability in its neighbourhood should be paramount for the South Block. A stable and secure neighbourhood should contribute to propelling India into the global stage that New Delhi aspires to achieve. On the contrary, lingering troubles in the neighbourhood may hold India back. New Delhi cannot remain neutral or indifferent. — INFA