Modi in Ukraine
By Prof. (Dr.) D.K. Giri
Secy Gen, Assn for Democratic Socialism
Prime Minister Narendra Modi made a historic visit to Kyiv on the 23 August, the capital city of wartorn Ukraine. Modi’s government has been perceived as quietly supporting Russia since the war broke out three years ago. Also, Narendra Modi is the only leader, supposedly an ally of Russian President Putin, who went to Ukraine as the war is still raging. Irrespective of various reactions to his visit, Modi’s intention of championing peace both in Russia which he previously visited and Ukraine is commendable. Notably, there is no immediate hope or hint of conclusion of the war in Ukraine. Sadly, there are hardly any efforts by world leadership in bringing about an end to the war except the China’s peace proposal which has few takers, given Beijing’s lack of credibility and neutrality on the war.
Two interpretations could be attributed to Modi’s presence in Ukraine. One, that he was trying to balance India’s position which has been largely perceived to be pro-Russia. New Delhi has abstained from several resolutions in the United Nations as well as from the peace communiqué signed in Switzerland. Although India participated in the first Ukraine peace conference through her diplomats, a diluted form of representation, it abstained from signing the joint communiqué. This obviously did not go down well with Ukraine as President Zelenskyy was reluctant to invite New Delhi to host the second peace conference.
To many observers, Zelenskyy is almost a ‘puppet’ in the hands of the West, the United States in particular. Ukraine is being compared to Pakistan in terms of autonomy in foreign and security policy like Pakistan was under the tutelage of the United States in the recent past and now of China. Former Indian diplomats and senior security officials have reacted to Zelenskyy’s veiled slur on Modi. Some reactions relate to Zelenskyy’s inability to comprehend the compulsions of an elected leader of the largest democracy inasmuch as Zelenskyy himself is an ‘unelected individual who does not represent the people of Ukraine – their aspirations and anxieties’.
In his press comments, Zelenskyy called out India for buying Russian oil and fuelling the Russian war machines. This is considered improper as New Delhi has repeatedly explained its position over several months. Second, Zelenskyy suggested that Putin showed disrespect to Modi by bombing the children’s hospital in Kyiv when the latter was physically present in Moscow. To underscore the point, Zelenskyy began interaction with Modi by first escorting him into the museum where the children were buried. Naturally, Zelenskyy would like outright support from other countries against the aggression by Russia. He had said that he wanted India on his side and, “not balancing between us and Russia”. This is stark failure on Zelenskyy’s part to understand third countries’ geo-political situations.
As a matter of principle, rule of international law, the territorial integrity of countries has to be respected by others. In that sense, after the split of Soviet Union into several states including Ukraine, the independence and integrity of former constituents of Soviet Union will have to be acknowledged. Putin’s approach of irredentism in reuniting Greater Russia or Soviet Union is not sustainable. Some of us have consistently urged New Delhi to take an unequivocal position on the Ukraine war keeping with international law.
But, as things unfolded since the war, it seems the war is guided and maintained by the vested interests. One of the security analysts of a NATO member country confided with me that United States does not wish to end this war. One reason that he put forward is that, as Moscow faces sanctions and cannot sell its oil and gas to European countries, USA has a field day in selling its petroleum products at higher price to its European allies. The sale of war machinery to Ukraine is another obvious driver in continuing the war. No wonder, there is no sound of any initiative from the West in bringing the war to a conclusion. The Western alliance led by USA, seems to be working on the theory of ‘bleeding Russia white’. After crippling the economy of Russia through a hugely expensive war, USA plans to concentrate its resources on countering China.
The question is, should New Delhi be a part of the Western strategic calculations vis-à-vis Russia. Talking of India’s national interest, Russia, and its predecessor Soviet Union have been a friend and an ally of India standing by the latter in times of security crisis in 1971 and later, supplying defence equipments at a negotiated exchange mechanism and so on. Nevertheless, some of us have been critical of India’s foreign policy mistakes that have landed New Delhi in the lap of Russia which has not been in the material interest of the country. At any rate, that is another debate.
Coming back to Ukraine war, the consequences of the war are felt in the area which is in fact bit distant to India. Sweden and Finland, both geographically close to Russia, joined NATO for their own security. Likewise, other allies of USA and the Western block have taken their positions vis-à-vis the war. New Delhi, given its long and historical friendship with Russia, took a nuanced position. It is China that is India’s immediate concern. Zelenskyy indirectly alluded to that risk in his press comments. If he wants India’s fullest support, he should be better advised to use his leverage with Western powers in reining on China, especially diverting their investment away from the country.
Prime Minister Modi did speak to Putin a year ago that war is not the strategy to settle issues. New Delhi has consistently urged both countries to come to a negotiating table. The visits by Modi to Russia, and within weeks, into Ukraine demonstrate his government’s as well as his personal desire for the end of the war and for the peace to prevail. His visits can certainly be considered as efforts in championing peace, if not brokering at this stage.
Much will depend on the outcome of the ensuing Presidential elections in the United States. Biden has certainly been a weak President. If his successor in the White House is Kamala Harris, the world may experience some new energy and enthusiasm if not any radical change of policy towards Ukraine. But if Donald Trump were to return to the presidency, he will make all efforts to end the war. Trump’s equation with Russia is greater than any other leader in the US and Ukraine is fully dependent on American support.
Be that as it may, Prime Minister Modi has taken a great initiative in visiting both capitals of the warring countries and has made his intention of being a part of any peace initiative quite clear to the world. I have been, in this column, urging India to take on that role, ambitious and arduous it may be, but it is the call of the time. — INFA