Worsening Ties with Dhaka
By Shivaji Sarkar
It’s a historic event. India and Bangladesh have entered a critical phase in their diplomatic relationship. On December 9, Indian Foreign Secretary Vikram Misri met with Bangladesh’s Foreign Advisor Tauhid Hossain and interim Prime Minister Md Yunus, amidst shifting political dynamics in the region. The meetings come after the dramatic events of August 5, when Sheikh Hasina, then Prime Minister of Bangladesh, fled to New Delhi during a period of escalating unrest.
While Misri struck an optimistic tone, emphasizing India’s desire for a “positive, constructive, and mutually beneficial relationship” with Bangladesh, Dhaka’s response was more measured. The discussions were overshadowed by tensions regarding Hasina’s refuge in India and her critical statements about the interim government.
Speaking at Dhaka airport, Misri described the talks as an opportunity for candid and productive dialogue, underscoring India’s commitment to strengthening bilateral cooperation for the mutual benefit of both nations.
“We have always seen in the past, and we continue to see in the future, this relationship as a people-centric and people-oriented relationship, one that has the benefit of all the people as its central motivational force,” he stressed.
The premier Dhaka daily Pratham Alo is not exuberant. In an opinion piece, a columnist writes in the paper “Before this development (mass uprising), in more than one and a half decades, New Delhi had offered a foreign policy puzzle by relying only on one party, practically a single Zaminder (landlord)-like chief executive officer in Dhaka, for serving Indian interests. It points out Misri raising the issue of safety of minorities in Bangladesh and a strong rebuttal by Dhaka, which went to the extent of stating that attacks on minorities or the issue of ISKCON activists being held in detention, killing or lynching of lawyers pleading ISKCON sannyasi Chinmoy Das’s release on bail as “internal” affairs.
Even posturing by Yunus and subduedness of Misri before him were eloquent, possibly exceeding diplomatic nicety. Misri apparently did not raise the issue of India’s role in helping the Mukti Bahini in liberating the country from the tyrants of Pakistan. Such mentions are part of diplomatic niceties.
Dhaka has particularly taken offence to Hasina issuing statements targeting the Yunus government. Yunus was categorical in stating that her statements “fan tension”. It’s pointing a finger at India indicating that Hasina “may have been acting at the behest of her hosts”. Still the host sometimes has to take care of the ties with the smaller neighbours. India has not yet resumed ties with Bangladesh Nationalist Party leader Begum Zia.
Safety of minorities is a serious issue. India alone has not raised it. Separately but simultaneously European Union also virtually condemned Bangladesh for the highhandedness. The European Union has called on the interim government to be mindful of the need to uphold the rule of law, and respect due process and fundamental rights. Ambassador and Head of Delegation of the European Union to Bangladesh, Michael Miller, made the call at an interactive session with Chief Adviser Prof Muhammad Yunus at the Chief Adviser’s Office on December 9 itself. Even the UK Parliament expressed concern over minority bashing in disturbed country about seven days back. The world has vociferously taken the cruelties on minorities in Bangladesh now. In reality, minorities are being mistreated there since the partition in 1947, their properties looted, women kidnapped and raped and forced to flee to India. After 75 years of continuous torture it has become the concern of the world.
A special tribunal in Bangladesh on Thursday banned the publication of any speeches by former Prime Minister Sheikh Hasina, a day after Hasina made her first public speech in a virtual address to supporters of her Awami League party in New York. In the speech, she accused Bangladesh’s interim leader, Nobel peace laureate Muhammad Yunus, of perpetrating genocide and failing to protect minorities, especially Hindus, since her ouster.
On the other hand, it appeared India was keener on restoring normalcy as Bangladesh and India have a whole set of issues ranging from trade, commerce, connectivity, power, water, and energy, and development cooperation, consular cooperation, and cultural cooperation.
Diplomatically, Misri took up the issues a bit too early. India and Bangladesh have a strong trade relationship, with India as Bangladesh’s second largest trade partner in Asia and Bangladesh as India’s largest trade partner in South Asia. The key listed Indian firms that have exposure to Bangladesh are Tata Motors, VIP, Emami, Marico, Dabur, Asian Paints, Pidilite, Adani Power, and Hero MotoCorp.
India’s exports to Bangladesh have increased over the past five years, from $7.17 billion in 2017 to $13.8 billion in 2022. The main products India exports to Bangladesh are refined petroleum, non-retail pure cotton yarn, and raw cotton. However, exports have moderated in recent years due to a decline in agricultural exports and lower demand.
Imports from Bangladesh have increased over the past few years, from $0.4–0.7 billion in 2010–11 to $2 billion in 2022–23. However, imports have moderated in recent years to $1.8 billion.
In 2022–23, the total bilateral trade between India and Bangladesh was $15.9 billion. China is Bangladesh’s largest merchandise trade partner. There are some pseudo exports too. Indian companies use the shorter Bangladesh rout to send their goods to North-East. That too is not affected
Misri may be concerned about suspension of train services from Bangladesh to India as also bus and shipping services indefinitely since mass uprising in August. The affected trains are – Maitri Express, Bandhan Express, and Mitali Express. India’s freight operations with Bangladesh have also been affected. Some wagons carrying food grains from India are stuck in Bangladesh, while eight loaded rakes are parked in India.
Bangladesh has not shown any interest in resumption of the services that benefit India more.
Another faux pas is the stalemate since 2014 in South Asian Association for Regional Cooperation (SAARC), a move that was bringing subcontinental countries of India, Nepal, Bhutan, Bangladesh, Sri Lanka, Maldives, Afghanistan and Pakistan closer. India could have taken a lead in the region. Bangladesh has not shown much interest in SAARC either though its initiative had led its formation.
The talks despite not being smooth has made a beginning. It is a significant step after the process of restoration of ties with Taliban in Afghanistan. India is changing, taking the lead back but it has to be calm so that its anxiety is not exposed. But Dhaka remains reticent and somewhat reticent. — INFA