Op Sindoor: Pak Badnam Hua
By Poonam I Kaushish
Every tragedy falls into two parts: a complication is followed by denouncement and unraveling, said Aristotle. Pakistan learnt the hard way post 22 April’s terror strike killing 22 tourists in Pahalgam. In this battle, Prime Minister Modi has come out trumps. Not only did he payback for Pahalgam, change the terms of engagement “Water and blood cannot flow together” but showed the world “Jo kaha woh kiya! Ye nyay ki akhand pratigya hai.”
In just 25 minutes Operation Sindoor, India defined a new normal: Raising Pakistan’s cost of a terror strike. Whereby, New Delhi made it unequivocally clear to Islamabad that terrorist incidents will neither be ignored nor tolerated. A calculated doctrinal of zero tolerance to terrorism. Whereby, it is willing to do the job that Pakistan is unwilling or cannot do — Eliminate terrorists.
Importantly, India sent three clear messages: Kashmir is no longer a bilateral issue between neighbours. It is no longer an issue at all. The only real matter between the two is Pakistan occupied Kashmir (PoK). Two, it has no compunctions of crossing the Line of Control (LoC) and striking Lakshar-e-Taiba and Jaish-e-Moammed’s bases Muridke and Bahawalpur. Alongside, debilitating strikes on over 12 military bases including Lahore and Jacobabad.
Thereby, reiterating every act of terrorism will be considered an “act of war” and receive proportionate response. Three, suspension of Indus Waters Treaty and trade bans will continue keeping relations strained given Pakistan’s economic and financial constraints.
Clearly, Pakistan has got caught between a rock and hard place even as it conveys not rolling over and playing dead by starting a new cyclical political-economy of violence on military and civilian infrastructure. But to what avail? Showcasing to the world be it US, Saudi Arabia, Qatar etc that it is the fountainhead of terror. Earning it the ignominy: Pakistan badnam hua,darling kiske liye!
Little did it realize that terrorism and escalation by State actors need funding that leaves, however, nebulous a money trail. This is what got Islamabad on the grey list of Financial Action Task Force, the global money laundering and terrorist financing watchdog.
Both sides have made their point. Both used military escalation to test the other’s resolve and find strengths and weaknesses of their defenses. Both realize they cannot prevail in a war without inflicting and sustaining massive destruction.
Undoubtedly, this precarious unpredictable uneasy truce has triggered long term instability and hostilities between the warring neighbours. It highlights the fragility of such agreements in the context of deep-seated mistrust and the complex dynamics of civil-military relations, particularly in Pakistan.
In fact since 2019 Indo-Pak ties have been delicate as there have been no diplomatic engagement and New Delhi and Islamabad are in the race for armed one upmanship and inflicting damage. Since 2014 India has had three military crisis with Pakistan, Uri 2016 , Balakot 2019 and now.
Underscoring this paradigm shift in its Pak policy, New Delhi made plain that past precedents are not binding on it in its dealing with recalcitrant Islamabad and its terrorists’ army. This was communicated to over 25 countries. Modi’s success internationally can be gauged by the firm US backing to the strikes, notwithstanding President Trump taking credit for the truce.
Despite India’s upper hand, not a few feel discontent over agreeing to a ceasefire arguing Pakistan should not have been spared this time. This is understandable but a deeper analysis shows India achieved its intended goals by inflicting significant damage on Pakistan through its operation.
Some observers believe this lull will hold in the short term due to international pressure with both countries recognising costs of escalation. Or it’s a ruse to reinforce before another offensive. Perhaps. The worry is the long term instability that these hostilities have triggered. The next Pahalgam attack would mean a full scale war. And this time it will start on a much higher escalatory ladder.
Undeniably, though the de-escalation might mark the end of India-Pakistan worst military confrontation in 25 years, relations with Pakistan are likely to continue to be challenging and will not lead easily to an enduring peace. Specially, till Islamabad shuts its tap on terrorism.
New Delhi has managed to push Pakistan to the margins of international relevance. Islamabad’s goal is to drag India’s confrontation so that the world starts viewing them as equals. But our goals are greater. Economic power-house and self reliance. We cannot let our guard down given that a hurt Islamabad might be licking its wounds but is readying to fight another day.
True, it is not in the interest of either country or peace and stability in the region to have a larger military conflict. Asserted a defence strategist “New Delhi is facing two difficult relationships at the same time – Pakistan and China. This escalation has created a two-front problem for India. India’s Pakistan problem does not exist in isolation. It comes with other geopolitical factors like our difficult relationship with China. It has to manage all of this along with its ambitions of becoming a superpower, its growing economy and favourable external climate globally.”
With an economically and politically bankrupt Pakistan has less to lose and more to gain. India understands future containment requires more than kinetic action, it needs to force Islamabad’s hand by taking out terrorist infrastructure and its funding routes along-with shoring up international support in a Trump-skittled world. Make Pakistan’s Establishment know that wages of war are inexorably high.
For now, both militaries remain on high alert but the risk of further flare-ups — for instance through misinterpreting drone activity or artillery fire —- remains high, especially in contested areas along the LoC. Pakistan will fight tooth and nail for the abeyance of the Indus Water Treaty by India
What next? New Delhi new assertiveness would need all the wisdom and restraint to ensure that it remains in control of the Indo-Pak script as both have limited room for imposing costs on each other, without risking major catastrophe. With Pakistan weak or strong there is no avoiding the political process in the sub-continent.
South Block knows only too well a war with Pakistan would cast a shadow over India’s growing economy—it’s the fastest-growing big economy in the world—as well as raising international alarm. Holding out threat of a nuclear threat is more of a deterrent as it a well established norm that since Hiroshima in 1945 technology in a unipolar world talk of nuclear war is baloney. Hence the plan to escalate this diplomatically and politically.
It remains to be seen if the latest crisis has strengthened Pakistan Army Chief Gen Munir’s hold over power or it has cracked open some space for civilian leaders who pushed for de-escalation despite the Army Chief’s hard line. One hopes it realizes the dangers of war and results in deeper introspection of its tragic state of affairs, even as it continues the muscle-flexing and war rhetoric.
In sum much work is needed going forward to ensure we don’t see a repeat of this crisis and that should be the primary focus for both sides. It will take a lot more to address the long-term distrust between the two countries. As a rising global power, India has a lot to lose and has a lot to manage because of this escalation. The next few years will tell us how it’s going to play out. — INFA