Quad Meet In US
By Dr. D.K. Giri
(Prof of Practice, NIIS Group of Institutions)
The Quad Foreign Ministers’ meeting in Washington on 1 July opens up strategic opportunities for India. Will New Delhi make the most of it having missed the bus a few times before? This is the time for reckoning for Quad in the context of freedom and security in India Pacific in the face of Chinese belligerence. For India, Quad meetings in the run-up to the Summit later this year become doubly important as New Delhi has been somewhat marginalised in the recent SCO meet. I will juxtapose Quad against other regional structures India is part of, namely BRICS and SCO. This is to drive home the point that New Delhi has to make a choice in the current chaotic geo-political situation.
The Foreign Ministers’ meeting at the behest of US Secretary of State, Marco Rubio was the second this year. Rubio had organised a smaller one, last January, on the fringe of Donald Trump’s swearing-in ceremony. The meeting this week sounded more assertive and definitive in its pronouncements. It excluded references to Israel-Iran war as well as Russia-Ukraine war in order to sharpen its focus on India Pacific. Although China was not mentioned by name, several statements called out Chinese high-handedness in the region – aggressive moves in East and South China Sea, needling India through Pakistan and even directly, crossing swords with Australia on its defence budget and so on.
For the first time, Indian External Affairs Minister S. Jaishankar led the charge by asking for greater focus and cohesion in Quad. He said, “Quad will deliver better if it works in a more focused manner”. The Japanese Foreign Minister Takeshi Iwaya was equally forthright as he said, “Quad will shape the future of India Pacific region”. Jaishankar was, however, platitudinous when he asked for a rule-based international order. He could be more effective for India if he eschews to be esoteric. China is a threat, an adversary, a manipulator which has to be recognised and factored into India’s security strategy.
Quad, by far, is the best strategic option for India. Quad was created in 2007 with a formal proposal by then Japanese Prime Minister Shinzo Abe. Although it started as Tsunami Core Group following the earthquake and tsunami in the Indian Ocean in 2004, there was little doubt about its real intention. That was to contain China. That is why for about a decade, Quad remained dormant, largely due to Australian concerns about potential negative impacts on its relationship with China.
Fast forward, Quad was vigorously revived in 2017 in the face of growing assertiveness of China. Since then, Quad has experienced increased engagement, greater institutionalisation, and sharper focus. There have been regular foreign ministerial consultations, sector-level meetings, and leader-level summits. The key objective of Quad has been to ensure, “free, open, prosperous and inclusive Indo-Pacific region”. The Quad countries also participate in joint military exercises like Malabar Naval Exercise which have since expanded to include all the four countries. Significantly, Quad is perceived as an Asian NATO.
Several experts have construed Quad as a counter-weight to China. The American think tank, Centre for a New American Security (CNAS) suggests that it is because of the rise of Chinese power Quad should serve as a tool for American statecraft. Admittedly, Quad has not yet achieved much in practice. It is because it has lacked a common ground or a coherent strategic approach. New Delhi is partly guilty of watering down Quad’s security structure by suggesting that it is a developmental and a humanitarian outfit.
Quad provides a great strategic opportunity for India as the interest of other three members converge with India’s especially on a common Chinese threat. It beggars understanding of why India is reluctant to project Quad as a security alliance. India is a member of BRICS and SCO, initiated and largely controlled by China. BRICS has expanded beyond five founder countries to ten in order to enlist allies for China and Russia in an increasingly polarised world. For India, the recent SCO meeting was an embarrassment caused by isolation on calling out terrorism. The joint statement issued by SCO mentioned terrorism in Baluchistan but omitted to do so in Pahalgam where innocent tourists were murdered in cold blood on religious identities.
Contrast that with the Quad Foreign Ministers condemning the Pahalgam terror attack in strong terms. It said, “The Quad unequivocally condemns all acts of terrorism and violent extremism in all its forms and manifestations including cross-border terrorism”. It added, “We call for the perpetrators, organisers and financiers of this reprehensible act to be brought to justice without any delay in accordance with their obligations under international law…. and to cooperate actively with all relevant authorities in this regard”. The phrase ‘relevant authorities’ here refers to Indian authorities.
Quad came down heavily on China although it did not name the country by issuing unequivocal condemnation of Chinese action in South-China Sea and by implication in other sovereign and independent areas. It said, “We express our serious concerns regarding dangerous and provocative actions …. repeated obstruction of the freedom of navigation and overflight, and dangerous manoeuvers by military aircrafts and maritime militia vessels”.
The Quad announced a few other initiatives. They agreed on a ‘new agenda’ that focuses on four key areas – maritime security, economic prosperity, critical and emergent technologies and humanitarian assistance and disaster response. They launched a Sea – Ship Observer Mission. This is supposed to deepen cooperation in maritime field in the India Pacific. This should reduce illicit maritime activity such as piracy, drug trafficking and illegal fishing etc.
Second critical step taken is the launch of ‘Quad Critical Minerals Initiative’. Quad members were concerned about China’s domination in critical minerals meant for emerging and new technologies. This initiative will aim at diversifying supply chains, minerals recovery and reprocessing. Quad will focus on supply chain resilience for critical minerals and will coordinate with private sector partners for increased investment in this critical field.
All in all, Quad renewed its focus which will result sharpening Quad’s ability to leverage resources in order to face the most pressing challenges in the region. It also reiterated its opposition to any ‘unilateral action that seeks to change the status quo by force or coercion in the Indo Pacific’. This should be good news for India, Australia as well as Japan. Depending on the depth of diplomacy of these three countries, Quad should grow stronger nudging USA to take an active part in the region. Washington should fall for it as it feeds the US objective of retaining the numero uno position in the global power structure.
To be sure, the onus of steering Quad rests largely on New Delhi as it faces the brunt of Beijing’s belligerence. New Delhi must play it cards well at least until the Quad Summit in November this year. This is important against the backdrop of Donald Trump’s flip-flops in foreign policy and New Delhi’s situation of being an Alice in the wonderland. Without doubt, New Delhi is more capable than it is perceived to be given its philosophical depth, cultural heritage and policy scruples. New Delhi will just have to recalibrate and reposition itself. — INFA