COP29 & After
By Dhurjati Mukherjee
The yearly climate talks and extensive discussions have not yielded much result. The UN Environment Programme assessment showed that several major economies, including the US, Canada, Japan, Australia, China and Saudi Arabia are not on course to meet their 2030 emission reduction targets or Nationally Determined Contributions (NDCs). However, countries like India are projected to meet their NDCs though their overall emissions are increasing as they expand energy use to support basic development needs. Overall, the global scenario is far from encouraging and targets set at the Paris agreement are likely to be breached by the end of this year itself as the final agreement at the Baku conference was rather disappointing.
Delving in figures, human-caused global warming has already breached 1.50C limit over temperature levels in the 1700s, widely viewed as critical to avert the most devastating impacts of climate change. A study released recently indicated that human-induced average global temperature rise had breached 1.490C by the end of 2023 and 1.530C presently over the 1700s level. This indeed is quite threatening and the whole point is that national development plans have rather failed to check global warming.
Meanwhile, the World Meteorological Organisation (WMO) stated that the January-September 2024 global mean surface air temperature was 1.540C above the industrial average, boosted by a warming El Nino, a natural phenomenon marked by slightly elevated Pacific Ocean and surface temperatures. Under the Paris agreement, the 1.50 C target has been almost breached though the pact assumed 1850-1900 period as the baseline, not the 1700s. Obviously, the ambitions of the Paris pact are in great peril.
As monthly and annual warming temporarily surpasses 1.50C, it is important to emphasise that we have failed to meet the Paris agreement goal to keep the long-term global average surface temperature below 20C above industrial levels”, observed WMO Secretary General, Celeste Saulo. She said that record breaking rainfall and flooding, intensifying tropical cyclones, deadly heat drought and the likes was the new reality and a foretaste of the future.
It is significant to mention here the observation of Simon Stiell, Executive Secretary of the UN Framework Convention on Climate Change that “if nations can’t build resilience into supply chains, the entire global economy will be brought to its knees” and emphasised the need for climate finance at the COP29 conference. But he failed to point out that the tropical countries have been brought to their knees as global warming has seriously affected the vulnerable and marginalised sections.
Though it is very much a fact that an ambitious climate finance goal, called New Collective Quantified Goal (NCQG), is in the interest of every nation, the figures dished out of the requirement of climate finance may not be forthcoming from the developed nations. Reaching the figure may be even more difficult with the President-elect of the US, Donald Trump unlikely to make available enough funds for climate mitigation to most developing countries. It may be mentioned here that as per estimates, clean energy and infrastructure investment will reach $2 trillion in 2024, almost twice that of fossil fuels.
A significant report titled ‘Raising Ambition & Accelerating Delivery of Climate Finance’ released at the conference recommended that climate finance should focus on mobilising $1 trillion per annum for developing countries by 2030. It warned that “any shortfall in investment before 2030 will place added pressure on the years that follow, creating a steeper and potentially costly path to climate stability”. The report estimated global investment requirement for climate action to be around $6.3-$6.7 trillion per annum by 2030 of which $2.7-$2.8 trillion is in advanced economies, $1.3-$1.4 trillion in China and $2.3-$2.5 in emerging markets and developing countries.
Importantly, the group of Like Minded Developing Countries and also G77 had made it clear that anything less than $1.3 trillion annual finance from developed to developing countries is very much needed. India demanded $600 billion in grant-based climate finance from developed countries out of the overall $1.3 trillion. Similarly, the role of G20 is indeed critical as Simon Stiell pointed out at the conference. Climate action has emerged as ‘the core business of the world’s biggest economies,’ who need to play a more active role, whether in controlling emissions or making available cheap finance to the emerging economies. But the quantum of finance may be much less than expected.
The requirement of resources of developing countries that have been struggling for funds has obviously been correctly assessed as these would go towards adaptation, mitigation and loss and damage. But it is necessary that these funds are not in the form of investments and should be adequate, accessible, grant-based, low-interest and long-term. If the last few years are taken into consideration, the recommended target of the report is indeed difficult, or rather impossible to reach.
It is pertinent to mention here that India underlined that the developing nations should not be burdened with the rich nations’ failures on their pre-2020 mitigation targets and developed countries should not put Intellectual Property Rights barriers to scaling and transfer of technologies to the developed nations. According to the Indian environment secretary, “new technologies and solutions are needed to drive the transition to a low-carbon economy”. Innovations in areas like clean energy, carbon removal etc. is still in early stages and there are barriers to scaling and transfer to the developing nations.
But in spite of all these, the developed countries agreed an amount of just $250 billion per annum by 2035 for the developing world, compared to the latter’s demands of at least $1.3 trillion. Experts pointed out that the final figure of $300 billion per year in support by 2035, up from the current target of $100 billion was indeed a disgrace as the developed world was fully aware of the devastating crisis afflicting the developing nations and the staggering cost of climate action.
Further, it is understood that the paltry sum includes mostly loans and lacks the crucial commitment to grant-based finance, which is essential for developing nations to address climate impacts and transition away from fossil fuels. It is believed that the Trump factor might have pushed the developing countries to accept the $300 billion annual target.
However, the final UNFCCC text on finance to cover up the meagre funding by the developed world also mentioned the need for all actors to work together to scale up funds to developing countries from public and private sources to $1.3 trillion by 2035. Later India stated that it does not accept the goal proposal in its present form. It observed: “Developed countries taking the lead for mobilisation goal of a mere sum of $300 billion and that too to be only reached by 2035, that’s almost 11 years later, and that too from a wide variety of sources”.
It is thus quite necessary that at this juncture just setting targets may not be of much use as there is need to implement agreed commitments and ensure energy transition and phase-out of fossil energy. Obviously, this calls for strengthening of delivery mechanism and holding countries accountable for failure to implement climate targets, robust tracking of climate financing, recognising the interdependencies between poverty, inequality and planetary instability etc.
Finally, it needs to be stated that COPs are being held every year and some action has undoubtedly been taken but we are way behind to effectively tackle global warming and control emissions. Firm action is called for by industrialised countries of the West as also China and even India to take more stringent steps to tackle the looming environmental challenge that is accentuating with every passing year. However, finance is a crucial necessity that may not be forthcoming from the Western world, raising the question whether sincere and judicious approach alone can save humanity and mother earth from the looming catastrophe. — INFA