The outcomes in the 88 Lok Sabha seats that went for polls on Friday will have a bearing on the political fortunes of three parties – the Communist Party of India (Marxist), Janata Dal (Secular), and Janata Dal (United) – which are struggling to stay relevant in national politics. Once very important players in national politics, today these parties are struggling for survival. They are losing their support base and this election will have a huge bearing on their future. The CPI (M) has been in office in Kerala for eight years, but the party’s decline on the national scene has started to impact its chances in the state in a national election: In this election, the CPI (M) has focussed on the Citizenship Amendment Act to position itself as the only effective anti-BJP voice, and in the process polarise the 26 percent Muslim population in the state in its favour. This attempt at social engineering, if it succeeds, could help the party to expand its social base. The JD (U) faces a different predicament in Bihar. Its decision to dump the Mahagathbandhan for the BJP (yet again) may cost the party its secular image and regional identity.
The Mahagathbandhan had the trappings of a federal alliance, which allowed the JD (U) to position itself as a party that spoke for Bihar’s interests: Chief Minister Nitish Kumar even made the demand for special category status for Bihar a political issue. The party holds four of five seats that will vote on Friday and a decent show is necessary for it to guard its ground and find its voice when the state holds assembly elections in 2025. The JD (S), once the regional voice of Karnataka, has reduced itself to a party of the Deve Gowda clan and is appealing for votes in the name of family honour. Its inability to rise above the interests of the Gowda clan and unprincipled power politics has shrunk its political and social base.