Disunity In Unity?
By Poonam I Kaushish
Unity in disunity or disunity in unity? Flummoxed? Certainly, as INDIA bloc seems to have developed cracks. In the euphoria of BJP’s victory and despair of AAP’s defeat it is easy to slice, dice and analyze if the Bloc has lost its vitality after its victory in Lok Sabha polls? Specially post AAP-Congress’s failure in resurrecting itself in Delhi? Further raising challenges for the already-faltering Bloc. Has it hit the self-destruct button? Are its days numbered? Is time ripe for its epitaph?
Pertinently, INDIA bloc emerged as a platform of Parties against BJP in 2024 Lok Sabha elections run-up, based on the logic that no Party would occupy anchoring position, offering an alternate vision of governance which it did fairly successful by reducing Hindutva Brigade to 240 MPs.
Today, the Bloc seems fragmented after consecutive defeats in Maharashtra, Haryana and Delhi which might exacerbate it further. At the storm’s centre which is threatening to shred the Bloc apart, is its biggest constituent, Congress. Already, Akhilesh’s Samajwad, Mamata’s TMC and Thackeray’s Shiv Sena appear to have lost patience with Gandhis’, back AAP, leaving it to fight Kejriwal alone.
Many accuse Congress of contributing to BJP’s victory despite a senior leader dubbing it misplaced, as AAP ruled out alliance pre-election. “Boot is on the other foot. Both TMC and Samajwadi worked in tandem with AAP against us. Everyone is entitled to expand its footprint….Bloc was created for 2024 general elections only.”
Post BJP’s Delhi victory J&K Chief Minister Omar Abdullah snidely commented “Aur ladho apas mein.” Words echoed by Shiv Sena (UBT) “If this continues why form alliances?” Samajwadi castigated Congress of “Bad attitude and consequences of disunity among secular democratic forces.” Alternatively, many feel AAP’s defeat would discourage attempts to form a third pole without Congress.
In West Bengal concerns, suspicion and wariness have surfaced in TMC over Congress’s action replay in State polls due next year after Telangana Chief Minister Reddy described the Bloc “fractured,” Abdullah called for it disbanding while RJD’s Tejashwi queried, “Who will lead? What will be the agenda? How will the alliance move forward? There is no discussion. There is no clarity on whether we will remain united or not.”
Several constituents have been at loggerheads with Congress over its Adani protests and blaming EVM’s for election losses. TMC accused it of hijacking Opposition’s agenda in Parliament and Samajwadi questioned Congress’s priority. Also, both Pawar’s NCP and RJD’s Lalu put their weight behind Mamata to lead the Bloc.
She is banking on her West Bengal victory as ‘champion BJP slayer’ to propel her on national stage as she feels there is a vacuum in Opposition space, post Congress’s three defeats. Her plan is based on two tactics: One, ensure a broad understanding among all non-BJP players. Two, build her stature and relations with other satraps whereby she is seen as the obvious candidate who has a track record, network and credibility to emerge as the alliance face.
Congress’s senior leaders too question whether the Party do coalition politics or go solo. Specially, against the backdrop though it failed to open its electoral account its vote percentage rose by 2% and in 14 seats its candidates came second, relegating AAP to third place.
In fact, many preen over AAP’s defeat as Congress hugely ate into Kejriwal’s non-BJP votes that contributed to his defeat adding to Opposition dismay. Not a few, praise Rahul’s strategy to stop piggybacking on regional outfits as they feel allies use Congress only to rise and better their vote-share at its cost.
Its’ open secret AAP-Congress have been uneasy allies. Its entry into Opposition bloc was resisted by Congress, which refused to invite it for Bloc’s coordination meetings. Significantly, alliance leaders have not met since Lok Sabha results and Bloc remains in suspended animation with no joint programmes or campaigns. Recall, AAP-Congress had an electoral understanding in Delhi but went solo in Punjab. Ditto CPI(M)-Congress in West Bengal and Tamil Nadu but are rivals in Kerala
AAP too is in doldrums after its Delhi rout, growing internal dissent and cohesion in its Punjab unit. Some MLAs are unhappy with the Party’s Delhi leadership exerting significant influence over State’s governance and could be considering other options. Perhaps, Kejriwal’s meeting with his MLAs today is to quell dissatisfaction.
Some Opposition leaders predict a similar “downfall” for AAP in Punjab, where just three of its 13 nominees won Lok Sabha elections. Not a few feel Kejriwal could consider a more direct role in Punjab politics now. Remember, AAP secured a landslide victory in Punjab 2022, winning 92 of the 117 MLA seats.
In today’s professional politics, political analysts believe India Bloc is dead for all practical purposes as it came with a self-destruct button and an implosion was just a matter of time when regional Parties would review their ties with Congress as they would be wary of nourishing it and treat it at best as a junior partner. For three reasons.
One, with elections over, grouping which lacks an ideological commonality loose cohesion. For State polls, regional subsets of the Bloc have shown signs of discord. Resultantly, Congress alliance with NC in J&K, SP in UP, CPM in West Bengal, RJD in Bihar and NCP-SS in Maharashtra.
Two, regional satraps realise the political paradox. Allies who compromise on their strength end up bolstering Congress, which fails in head-on fights with BJP. Also Parties feel their contribution has delivered a booster shot to Rahul making him Leader of Opposition in Lok Sabha while hurting their national ambitions.
Besides, the Bloc is plagued with contradictions as it has sharply defined regional areas and consequently many turf wars. For regional Parties Congress is a useful ally but they are careful not to let it revive and become a behemoth again. An issue which needs redressal as it struggles to offer a viable alternative to BJP.
Also, a coalition cannot just be woven around an anti-Modi theme. It needs a vibrant script. Even as it underlines ‘inclusive’, BJP has usurped it by succeeding in drawing a parallel with politics of appeasement. It will have to find the language and repertoire that can match BJP’s dexterity, multi-vocality and resources with which it shores up its communication dominance and perceived imagery. The stability of an alliance depends on the structure on which it has been built.
BJP has already thrown down the gauntlet by refreshing Hindutva, projecting and redefining nationalism and country’s self respect. Who will take up cudgels against BJP beyond slogans and Parliament log-jams ?
Clearly, in this minefield of contradictions where strategies are crafted with vote-bank dividends in mind forging a path ahead for Opposition bonding is easier said than done in a polity that is for more splintered, has sharply defined regional areas and consequently many more turf wars. It will require foresight, nimbleness and flexibility.
In the ultimate, if they want to play the game right India will need a lot more than anti-BJP rhetoric to survive. It will have to start lengthening their stride, strike the right balance between being popular and taking care of popular interest with a long term vision. Either way it is good for India’s democracy to have more regional satraps finally coming in to their own. Remember, a weak and divided Opposition by any name will remain a weak Opposition. — INFA