Pahalgam Terror Tango
By Poonam I Kaushish
Circa April 16, 2025: Twenty four year-old Himanshi is exhilarated and dreams of a married life with 26 year old Lt Narwal.
Circa April 22, 2025: Himanshi is widowed. Even as bridal bangles jingle on wrists and sindoor is fresh in her hair reminder of a honeymoon hacked to death.
Narwal was among 26 male tourists enjoying their holiday with families in salubrious Baisaran Pahalgam killed. Words fail me in the horror of the savage terror attack which began as collating beautiful memories, ended in a page soaked with blood and tears. Plunging the country into grief and provoking nationwide anger demanding retribution.
Predictably, Lashkar-e-Taiba (LeT) offshoot The Resistance Front (TRF) owned up only to retract later in the face of worldwide condemnation. The denial is disbelieved thanks to the litany of Pakistani-directed terrorist attacks following 1999 Kargil conflict.
Yet, one thought post Uri and 2019 Balakot strike to avenge the Pulwama attack on a 78 vehicles convoy of 2500 CRPF jawans travelling from Jammu to Srinagar, terrorists had learnt a lesson. But one was wrong.
Undoubtedly, payback will follow. Prime Minister Modi has made plain, “India will identify, track, punish every terrorist and their backers bigger than they can imagine and we will pursue them to the ends of Earth.” Already New Delhi has taken punitive action below the military threshold: Kept 64-year-old Indus Water Treaty in abeyance, closed Attari border, sent Pakistani visa holders back, expelled more Pakistani diplomats and withdrawn its attaches from Islamabad.
Yet, as New Delhi chooses the next course of action it will be difficult to shake of the sense of despair this kind of terrorism produces. A successful military operation might be an act of justice. It might restore a sense of confidence in the Government’s capabilities and perhaps satiate the desire for revenge. But even if these actions are successful we will continue to remain close to the edge of an abyss.
As we have seen this movie once too often, with antecedents going back to the 1980s and 1990s. Whereby, the script is tiresomely familiar: Islamist terror groups created, armed, trained, and guided by Pakistan’s ISI, kill innocents in India. Islamabad denies involvement even as groups therein “take credit” for attacks. The world denounces it. India carefully calibrates its response so as not to provoke a larger war. Once the tension settles everyone settles back to business-as-usual. Until it happens again.
Undeniably, the attack exposes the tenuous links in Pakistan’s ruling troika —— Establishment, Army and ISI. New Delhi, times out of number forgets that its neighbour has been nurtured on a military psyche whereby it views India as an ideological, not solely military problem fed on a staple anti-India tirade since 1947. For the troika seeped in armed tradition along-with its jihadist proxies, the ‘core’ issue of Kashmir is an article of faith. Succinctly, described by late Zulfikar Ali Bhutto as “bleeding India with a thousand cuts.”
Pahalgam shows Pakistan is the biggest enemy of normalcy in Kashmir. Defence strategists aver Islamabad timed the attack as it is desperate for wider confrontation to deflect global attention from its own existence-threatening domestic failings. It wants US, China to get involved. Confessed Pakistan Defence Minister, “We have been supporting, training and funding terrorist organisations for three decades as dirty work for the West —- US and Britain.”
As India readies for a strong and swift response it should not take the bait, instead hit Pakistan where it hurts by working closely with Iran, Afghanistan and China. With US President Trump breathing down its neck Beijing wants to restore cordial ties with New Delhi. Can it get Islamabad to crackdown on terrorists? If not, we know it will never abandon its “all-weather friend.”
In this age of real politik, India will remain at the mercy of terrorist organizations which will always have the upper hand in choosing the time and place of the next attack. Our leaders should not be under any illusion that the death of the fidayeens will deter jihadis operating from Pakistan and their State sponsors from carrying on their irrational jihad. In fact, they could raise a lethal phase of violence, notwithstanding Islamabad’s diplomatic isolation.
What next? New Delhi needs all its wits, military intelligence, resources, wisdom and restraint to ensure that it remains in control of the Indo-Pak script and teach Pakistan their criminal behaviour will exact a heavy price. One way is to adopt the Israeli Defence Forces strategy which aims to cause the opponent more damage (quantitatively and qualitatively) than the opponent caused Israel in the same time span. The fear of punitive retaliation would delay the next conflict and restrain the enemy’s ambitions.
For the success of any strategy be it combative or “limited” war one needs national will, great swiftness and sagacity more than readiness to use military power. War is an option every nation prepares. This entails a clear view of where the dangers lie, and of what kinds of responses are necessary to meet those dangers. It includes also a basic, crystalline faith that India is on the right path and that Kashmir is worth defending.
While an overt message needs to be sent, covert operations will also have to be enhanced. Key militant leaders and infrastructure within Pakistan cannot be allowed to feel secure. India must also employ cyber warfare tactics to disrupt militant communications and operations.
Consequently, the success of counter-terrorism lies in degrading LeT, JeM and TRF capabilities, forcing them to change their intentions and denying them opportunities to strike. New Delhi needs to think of ways to neutralise their fast-growing domestic base, availability of hardware and human resource, collaborative linkages with organized crime, gun runners, drug syndicates, hawala operators, subversive radical groups etc.
For any anti-terrorist operation to succeed one must be focused on the vitals, keeping a watch on the essentials, deliberate and debate the options and leave the desirables till the vitals have been achieved and essentials addressed. One only hopes that whatever action the Government takes is prudent in the larger sense, not performative or reckless.
Certainly, in this zero-sum game, muscle-flexing, war rhetoric and one-upmanship will continue till Kashmir is resolved. Pahalgam’s horror is a stark reminder the policy of “benign neglect” India had pursued towards Pakistan doesn’t work. We need to be tough to punish and deter cross-border transgressions. Make clear that protection to terrorists by Islamabad is unacceptable. They need to be smoked out and bombed, a la US seals of Osama bin Laden at Abbottabad.
Our leaders must understand the nature of threat and adopt a strategy that’s in tune with the situation. Any Indian response to Pahalgam will therefore involve a mix of measures targeting Pakistan and international community. India’s message must teach Pakistan’s military leadership their criminal behaviour will exact a heavy price. Security agencies have to uncover terror networks and linkages to nail the perpetrators. It must choose targets and path carefully while firewalling citizens from consequences.
Modi knows only too well staying ahead is the name of the game. The nation which survives is the one that rises to meet the moment, which has the wisdom to recognize the threat and the will to turn it back, and does so before it is too late. Modi has made plain: Let not any one kick India around with tall talk of bleeding India with a thousand cuts! Will Pakistan heed? — INFA