The Ukraine War
By Dr. D.K. Giri
(Prof of Practice, NIIS Group of Institutions)
The rivalry with Pakistan leading to a limited 88-hour war has deflected India’s attention on the war in Ukraine. However, the tell-tale experience of the war should nudge India to reengage with Russia-Ukrainian war. It is so critical as the war with Pakistan has revealed the crux in India-European ties, so-called India-American growing friendship, India-Russia historical relations and India-China continued antagonism. One could surmise that India’s position and role (or lack of it) had a visible bearing on India-Pakistan war.
The war in Ukraine is rapidly descending into a catastrophe for Europe and by implication, most of the world. The battle is now full-blown with no holds barred. Russia is hurling swarms of drones and missiles at Ukraine. This ceasefire has not happened despite Donald Trump’s tall claim that he was to bring it about in days after assuming the office for the second term. In fact, he was trying to seduce a tiger which had tasted blood with sweet talks. Vladimir Putin sized up Trump and realised that the latter had no gall to militarily back Ukraine. So, conversely, Putin intensified the war aiming at a total victory. He perhaps, thinks that Europe is no match for his military power or nuclear deterrence. Apparently, Ukraine is hitting back with calculated military plans like Operation Spiderweb.
Kyiv is claiming to retaliate to bullet to bullet, drone to drone and has downed several Russian aircrafts. But the obvious reality on the ground is that Russia is inching forward and nibbling away territories and towns of Ukraine. Europe is not able to resist despite its full backing to Ukraine. NATO spending has increased. Germany has unblocked funds for military expenditure. European countries, mainly the border states like Sweden, Norway and Poland are undertaking massive preparations to face the expansion of war into their respective territories. Denmark Foreign Minister supposes that Putin will attack Europe in less than five years. Indeed, if unchecked, the Ukrainian war could spiral into entire Europe.
The situation became worse for Europe after Trump returns to the White House. He told off Europe and asked them to prepare and pay for their own defence. He almost threw NATO under the buss. Left alone, Europe cannot match Russia’s nuclear power or military strength. The former is only a deterrent, but the tactical nuclear bombs could be used. Putin has already threatened that he could used them. Its non-use has been attributed to Prime Minister Modi who persuaded Putin against it. Militarily Russian army is 1.5 million strong.
Where does India stand on Ukrainian war? It has been neutral since it started. New Delhi harped on diplomacy and dialogue to resolve the problem. This stance amounted to tacitly supporting Russia which is the invader and has been increasingly occupying Ukrainian land. New Delhi stuck to its policy of strategic autonomy and Vishwabandhu (friend of the world). India’s war with Pakistan has exposed the limitations of these approaches. If dialogue and diplomacy are the way to go, why is New Delhi open to dialogue with Pakistan? Prime Minister Modi has maintained that there can be no dialogue with Pakistan until terrorists are publicly disowned. After the recent war, Modi has added another pre-condition for dialogue, which is return of PoK to India. Apply the same approach to Ukraine. How can Ukraine dialogue with a country that is occupying its territory? The dialogue can start if the war stops or ceased.
It is now obvious that Vladimir Putin did not invade Ukraine to prevent it from joining NATO. Zelenskyy will be more than willing to give up any desire of joining NATO if his country’s territorial integrity and security is respected by Russia. From the course of the war, it is not hard to realise that Putin wants complete subjugation of Ukraine. Will India still be sympathetic to Russia’s position and witness the forceful takeover of Ukraine?
The fallout of India’s neutrality, strategic autonomy or multi-alignment could be seen in India-Pakistan war. No European country openly came in support of India. There is no quid pro quo in Pakistan and Ukraine. The game is not over in Ukraine, nor Asia Pacific, where India is facing an adversarial China-Pakistan axis. It is time India re-focussed on Ukraine, did the course-correction and revive partnership with Europe. As such, New Delhi is individually friendly with many European countries.
As India and Europe go for the re-set of their bilateralism, let us deal with the elephant in the room, that is Russia – India’s historical security and defence ties with the country. But times have changed. Is Russia protecting India’s interest against China? Moscow and Beijing have a strong ‘eternal bond’. China is poking India off and on and now with its proxy state Pakistan. Russia has not deterred China against India. So is it not wise for India to negotiate with Europe and America who could ably support India to take on China?
New Delhi should work with individual countries of Europe. In this new strategy, Poland is a case in point. It borders Russia, has been invaded and occupied by its former incarnation USSR. Warsaw has become a part of EU and NATO, has bilateral security ties individual countries like France. Warsaw has just decided to train every adult in warfare to raise its military strength to 500,000 personnel. India could team up with Poland in ending the Ukrainian war. If that happens, Poland could be more vocal and nudge other EU countries to back India against China. India and Poland have upgraded their ties to strategic partnership. Modi visited Poland last year and en route to Kyiv, 45 years after PM Morarji Desai had been there.
It is time for India to seriously rethink its strategy vis-à-vis Ukraine. It may not take sides, but could pull all stops to stop the war. Trump is failing, which does not mean no one else can succeed. Prime Minister Modi could. He can bring about reconciliation between Russia and the West. That will be the safest bet for India. New Delhi can no longer remain aloof from Ukrainian war. The world security depends on the resolution of this continuing war in Europe. Let us remember that the security players in the world consist of America, Europe, Russia and China. How can India stay away from this security apparatus and isolate itself? — INFA