Security & Transatlantic Ties
By Piotr Opalinski
(Expert, Centre for Intl Relations, Poland)
The global order is undergoing its deepest transformation since the end of the Cold War. The unipolar moment of the early 2000s, when US primacy seemed uncontested, has given way to a volatile multipolarity involving Washington, Beijing, Moscow, and several rising regional powers. For India, an emerging global actor balancing regional caution with international ambition, understanding the trajectory of US–EU relations is essential. Transatlantic ties shape Washington’s strategic bandwidth, Europe’s global role, and the balance of attention between the Euro-Atlantic and the Indo-Pacific.
For decades NATO anchored the US–European partnership, underpinned by Washington’s security guarantee. Today, the picture is more complex. The United States remains indispensable, but its commitments are stretched across Ukraine, the Indo-Pacific, the Middle East, and global counterterrorism. This overstretch has revived Europe’s debate on strategic autonomy. France champions an independent defence posture, Germany dramatically increases defence spending while remaining within a US-led framework, and Italy prioritizes flexibility. Poland and the Baltic states insist American guarantees are irreplaceable, fearing Europe alone cannot deter Russia. The war in Ukraine highlights these vulnerabilities, showing Europe’s dependence on US intelligence, logistics, and advanced weaponry. For India, the stakes are clear: if Washington is tied down in Europe, its ability to counter China in Asia could weaken.
Russia’s invasion remains the immediate transatlantic priority. The US provides critical weapons, while the EU mobilizes large-scale financial aid. Defence budgets across Europe are climbing, with Germany discarding decades of pacifism and the Baltic states spending above NATO benchmarks. Yet Washington insists Europe cannot confine itself to its eastern flank. Increasingly, the Indo-Pacific is framed as a shared concern. France, with territories in the Indian Ocean, has expanded naval cooperation with India. Germany has dispatched frigates to Asian waters, signalling willingness to contribute to maritime security beyond Europe. The EU’s 2021 Indo-Pacific strategy explicitly names India as a key partner, recognizing that Asia’s security architecture is essential for Europe’s own resilience. For New Delhi, the challenge is to ensure this engagement becomes substantive, involving technology transfers, resilient supply chains, maritime partnerships, and green energy projects.
Analyses of Europe often focus on Paris, Berlin, and Rome. Yet since 2022, Poland has emerged as a pivotal security and economic actor. Its defence spending now exceeds four per cent of GDP, the highest share in NATO. Warsaw carries out one of Europe’s most ambitious modernization programs, acquiring advanced US and South Korean systems, while its territory functions as NATO’s logistical lifeline to Ukraine. Politically, Poland positions itself as Washington’s bridge into continental Europe, advocating robust deterrence while resisting overreliance on Berlin or Paris. Beyond security, Poland is critical for trade, technology, and energy corridors. For India, this creates opportunities: joint ventures in defence production, cooperation on LNG, nuclear power, renewables, and participation in digital infrastructure projects. Poland’s assertive diplomacy and transatlantic orientation make it a credible partner for Indian policymakers and businesses seeking deeper access to Europe.
The broader debate on autonomy versus Atlanticism continues to shape the transatlantic landscape. Initiatives such as PESCO or the European Defence Fund illustrate ambitions, but their scope remains modest compared to NATO. Nuclear deterrence is solely French, and gaps in air defence, cyber, and logistics persist. Autonomy remains more aspiration than reality. For India, what matters are outcomes: a Europe that develops genuine capabilities could become a stronger partner in Asia, while one that entrenches dependency will leave Indo-Pacific security largely in American hands.
Despite post-2022 solidarity, friction persists. Trade disputes over subsidies, digital taxes, and industrial policy regularly flare up. Approaches to China diverge: the US increasingly defines Beijing through hard containment, while Europe labels China a “systemic rival” but maintains deep economic ties. For India, which balances cooperation and competition with China, these differences are significant. A divided West complicates coalition-building in Asia but gives New Delhi room to manoeuvre. By engaging individual European states with distinct approaches, India can turn divergence within the West into strategic opportunity.
Although security dominates headlines, economics will determine the sustainability of transatlantic engagement with Asia. Supply chain diversification is central, with Europe reducing dependence on China and India positioning itself as an alternative hub in pharmaceuticals, IT, and critical minerals. Energy is another field of convergence: the EU’s Global Gateway and green transition funds align with India’s renewable and hydrogen ambitions, while Poland’s LNG terminals and nuclear plans open practical avenues for cooperation. Digital infrastructure also offers fertile ground, as Europe’s emphasis on secure networks and regulation matches India’s interest in 5G, 6G, AI, and cyber security. Linking strategic dialogues with concrete economic projects allows India to transform rhetorical commitments into durable partnerships.
Implications for India are far-reaching. New Delhi should diversify its European engagement beyond France, Germany, and Italy, recognizing the rising influence of Central and Eastern Europe. It should use Europe’s Indo-Pacific awakening to expand maritime cooperation, build resilient logistics networks, and deepen technological exchanges. At the same time, India must monitor Europe’s approach to burden-sharing, as it will determine Washington’s ability to remain fully committed in Asia. A combined approach – pursuing both EU-level frameworks like the Global Gateway and bilateral initiatives with proactive states – will broaden India’s strategic options and minimize dependency on any single partner.
The US–EU relationship is in flux. Security remains anchored in American primacy, but debates on autonomy, burden-sharing, and global reach are reshaping transatlantic ties. For India, these shifts directly influence the availability of US resources in Asia, Europe’s credibility as a global actor, and opportunities with emerging players like Poland. India should anticipate developments, positioning itself as a partner of choice in defence, energy, and technology. By embedding economic cooperation within security dialogues and diversifying engagement across Europe, New Delhi can expand influence in both transatlantic and Indo-Pacific arenas.
In a world of accelerating change, foresight will be India’s most valuable strategic asset. Reading transatlantic dynamics early – and acting pragmatically – will determine how effectively India shapes the multipolar order now taking form. — INFA