Neighbouring Pakistan is in chaos, and India should be ready for any eventuality. Usually, whenever Pakistan is in chaos, the military tries to divert attention by increasing tension with India. The post-election chain of events in Pakistan is a chronicle of chaos foretold. There is an unmistakable sense of déjà vu as the dramatis personae in the unfolding political saga play out their scripted part. The same sets of discredited players are back in the reckoning, virtually making a mockery of electoral democracy. More than two weeks after one of the most tainted elections in the country’s parliamentary history, a coalition government brokered by the Army is finally in sight, however shaky and fragile it may look.
It is no surprise that the constituents of the new government – Pakistan Muslim League (PML-N) and Pakistan People’s Party (PPP) – are the same players that made up the Pakistan Democratic Movement alliance, which took office after Imran Khan’s unceremonious ouster in 2022. As per the understanding reached between the key players, Shehbaz Sharif will be back as Prime Minister and PPP co-chairman Asif Ali Zardari will become president. The speaker of the national assembly will be from the PML-N, while the senate chairmanship and the Khyber Pakhtunkhwa and Punjab governorships will go to the PPP. Nawaz Sharif will play the role of a mentor to the alliance. There is no guarantee this will work, and chaos might return if the military does not have its way. India should keep an eye on and take measures to safeguard its interests.