India & Pakistan
By Piotr Opaliñski
(Former Polish Dy Ambassador to India & Ambassador to Pakistan; CIR)
The April terrorist attack in Pahalgam has reignited a new wave of tensions between India and Pakistan. It exposed not only the fragility of bilateral relations but also the persistent nature of the decades-old unresolved Kashmir conflict, which continues to impact the regional situation.
Tensions between India and Pakistan—two neighbouring nuclear-armed countries—have a long history, beginning on the very day British India was divided based on religious lines. However, the current dynamics—combined with the passive stance of key international players—pose a serious risk of deteriorating security and destabilizing the entire region.
The brutal attack on tourists in Pahalgam, carried out on April 22 this year by members of The Resistance Front (TRF)—allegedly linked, according to New Delhi, to Pakistani organisations Lashkar-e-Taiba and Hizbul Mujahideen—was the deadliest attack on Indian civilians since the Mumbai attacks in 2008. Tourists numbering 26 were killed, and 17 injured. The incident caused a sudden spike in tension, evolving into one of the most dangerous crises in South Asia in recent years.
India’s Reactions
India accused Pakistan of directly supporting the attackers and, as a sanction, suspended the Indus Waters Treaty of 1960, closed the Attari–Wagah border crossing, revoked visas for Pakistani citizens, and initiated reciprocal reductions in diplomatic personnel. India also deployed significant military forces to the Jammu and Kashmir region and reinforced border control. It further threatened military action in response to “any further provocations.”
India’s decisions were also influenced by strong nationalist sentiments and the pressure of upcoming regional elections, which pushed the BJP-led government at the Centre to take a hard line against Pakistan.
Pakistan’s Reactions
In response to India’s actions, Pakistan closed its airspace to Indian aircraft, suspended the 1972 Simla Agreement, and froze bilateral trade, including trade through third countries. At the same time, Islamabad rejected New Delhi’s accusations and called for an international investigation into the Pahalgam attack under UN auspices. It traditionally condemned “terrorism in all its forms and manifestations” and declared “only moral and diplomatic” support for the Kashmiri people’s right to self-determination.
It also pointed out that Pakistan itself is a victim of terrorism, accusing India of supporting anti-Pakistani armed groups in the Afghan-bordering provinces of Balochistan and Khyber Pakhtunkhwa. It is worth noting that despite New Delhi’s sharp reaction, Islamabad continues to appeal for international intervention, emphasising that war with India is not a solution but rather a path to further destabilisation.
International Inaction
Despite the UN’s call for restraint from both sides, no world leader has proposed an effective mediation mechanism. The U.S. President Donald Trump downplayed the significance of the conflict, calling it “a thousand-year-old dispute.” China, a traditional ally of Pakistan, called for peace while Pakistani media reported on intensive consultations between Islamabad and Beijing. Saudi Arabia limited its response to a call for dialogue without offering a specific initiative. Russia, though traditionally maintaining close relations with India, declared neutrality in this matter. The European Union, while expressing concern and urging both sides to engage in dialogue, also refrained from proposing concrete actions, staying within the bounds of general appeals.
Rising Tensions
The suspension of the Indus Waters Treaty—already referred to by Islamabad as a casus belli—could have catastrophic consequences for Pakistan, where 80% of agriculture depends on the river system. The growing tensions with India could break the existing taboo around the use of “water weapons” as a tool of conflict. For Pakistan, this would mean not only the loss of vital resources but also economic destabilisation and rising social unrest that could turn into a crisis with international implications.
The scale of the problem may also draw other regional players into the rivalry, especially China, which has strategic interests in managing Indus waters due to its infrastructure projects in Pakistan and neighbouring areas. Potential Chinese involvement could further complicate the geopolitical situation and elevate the water dispute to a broader Asian forum.
Both countries are experiencing rising socio-political tensions: in India, there is an increase in nationalist sentiment driven by upcoming regional elections, while in Pakistan, political militarisation is progressing, sidelining civilian institutions.
Both trends increase the risk of radical political decisions that could have irreversible consequences for both countries. Escalating political polarisation creates a space for military decisions that could lead to tragic outcomes.
Outlook
In the short term, the most likely scenario is continued military pressure from India through limited operations, as well as ongoing violations of the ceasefire by both sides. The absence of effective mediation or pressure from key powers increases the risk that the current conflict between South Asia’s two nuclear states could escalate into a major threat to international peace and security.
The previous escalation of tensions following the Pulwama attack in 2019 showed how real the danger of a full-scale war was under similar circumstances, making a strong case for urgent and intensified efforts toward a peaceful and diplomatic resolution of the current crisis. — INFA