Trump’s Long Shadow
By Shivaji Sarkar
The currency crisis is bound to impact India growth. Indeed, a deep crisis is ahead. The falling rupee is likely to hit the common man’s pocket as domestic fuel prices may rise sharply despite a global thaw in crude prices. Would the Russian President Vladimir Putin’s visit, his close embrace and promises, make a difference?
Putin’s visit may help New Delhi in many spheres but not in the crude sector, which India has decided to cut sharply. The Russian crude has impacted Indians, due to overdependence on trade with the US Trumpire, though they never benefitted from the deals. The benefit was only to two companies, one Indian and the other Russian. Their profits alone swelled, while people, government and companies continued to buy fuel at high prices.
India-Russia ties go back to the Soviet era and have endured irrespective of the changing geopolitical landscape coinciding with New Delhi’s talks with the US on a trade deal to cut punitive tariffs imposed by President Donald Trump on its goods over India’s purchases of Russian oil. That’s to put it mildly. Trump has been breathing down each movement of the Indo-Russian ties. There was even news that the plane Putin was travelling to New Delhi had the most-monitored movements. Trump shadows all.
The Putin visit is not a nostalgic return to Cold War diplomacy. “It is a negotiation over risk, supply chains and economic insulation”, says Global Trade Research Initiative. India has close ties since the Nehru-Kruschev era of 1950s, the 25-year strategic deal with Indira Gandhi, Putin renewing it in 2000 with AB Vajpayee continuing the legacy. Since then much has changed both in the Ganga and Volga, but “Russia ties like pole star”, says Prime Minister Narendra Modi. Putin promises non-stop energy.
The Ukraine war has added a new NATO-European dimension. The UK is all for NATO but not keen on joining a war. Putin faces pressure from his European allies. Russia feels being isolated in Europe, its geographical entity. Ambassadors of Germany, France and the UK write a rare joint article in an Indian newspaper criticising Russia’s stance on Ukraine as he lands in New Delhi.
Were the NATO allies acting on their own or at the behest of their masters? Not known but it’s more likely. Trumpian disgust for Russian oil purchases accusing India of fuelling/funding the Ukraine war ignites his sanctions to keep both the countries cornered if exactly not on leash.
For Trump, Putin got the freedom to move out with the Alaska meet for peace negotiations on August 15, where the two leaders discussed how to end the Ukraine war. That was the first free trip of Putin outside Moscow since 2020. The next is the celebrated visit to New Delhi. Almost it is his first visit to an Asian country. This is not to mention his discussions at Shanghai Cooperation Organisation (SCO) meet in Tianjin, China on August 31 and September 1.
Putin’s New Delhi visit has plenty of optics, modest deliverables but Russia or Soviet Union has been a dependable ally. The missing defence deal, even the nuclear submarine deal, spoke loudly: India is balancing Russia and America with caution.
The visit seeks India’s august revival of free-trade talks with the $5-trillion Russia-led Eurasian Economic Union (EAEU). With exports weakening due to steep 50 per cent Trump tariffs, two months of declining shipments, a slowdown in manufacturing, and the rupee falling past 90 per dollar, India is urgently seeking new markets. Russia and the EAEU have become priority destinations, as New Delhi works to offset rising pressure on its trade.
India and Russia announced a major expansion of economic ties during Putin’s visit. Both sides launched a new Economic Cooperation Programme aimed at sharply increasing trade and investment, with targets of $100 billion in annual trade by 2030 and $50 billion in mutual investments.
Putin reaffirmed the commitment to complete four more nuclear plants at Kudankulam. Two have been commissioned supposed to be India’s largest nuclear plant. The milestone advances India’s largest nuclear project highlights Moscow’s role as New Delhi’s most dependable energy partner.
Bilateral trade already hit a record $68.7 billion in 2024–25 from a mere $ 8.1 billion in 2020. Key agreements were signed in energy, finance (including national currency settlements), fertilizers, healthcare, steel, shipbuilding, coal, and banking. India also plans to open new consulates in Russia to deepen official engagement. Defence cooperation remains central, anchored by an existing military and technical pact that runs through 2031. Commodity exports to Russia minimal in millions dollar.
The national currency settlement reiterated by Putin is a commitment to BRICS. He held talks with Prime Minister Narendra Modi, attended a business forum and announced the launch of Russia Today (RT), a Kremlin-funded state-controlled TV network. Interestingly Trump has a dislike for the RT.
Even with relatively few major deliverables, the visit provided enough substance for Moscow and New Delhi to reaffirm their “special and privileged strategic partnership.” President Putin praised efforts to expand cooperation, underscored by agreements such as the Russia–India Economic Cooperation Programme, a framework for collaboration on critical minerals and supply chains, and a commitment to strengthen pharmaceutical ties, including a joint factory in the Kaluga region.
It may be recollected Soviet Union helped build the medicinal plant company Indian Drugs and Pharmaceuticals Ltd. (IDPL) (and other drug units) in the 1960s, providing crucial technology and aid for public sector drug production in India. It provided inexpensive necessary drugs for decades before the plant was closed.
Optics did not stop at economics. Rahul Gandhi and Mallikarjun Kharge, Leaders of the Opposition in both Houses of Parliament, were not invited to the dinner hosted for Russian President Vladimir Putin at the President’s residence on Friday, though Congress MP Shashi Tharoor was. This comes a day after Lok Sabha LoP Rahul Gandhi alleged the Modi government is going against “tradition” and doesn’t want him or a representative of the Opposition to meet Vladimir Putin because of its “insecurity”.
The Putin visit may have more optics left in the domestic and international scenario. Uncanny Trump, sceptical European leaders and neighbourhood developments in Afghanistan and Iran may have lot to unfold. Is it the beginning of a new era – peace, conflict or tranquil? — INFA