Japan’s New PM
By Dr. Hab. Beata Bochorodycz
(Political scientist, expert, Centre for Intl Relations, Poland)
Sanae Takaichi became Japan’s first female Prime Minister. Known for her conservative views, she belongs to the Liberal Democratic Party, which has ruled the country for most of its history since the 1950s. The stability of Takaichi’s new cabinet will largely depend on the skillful balancing of political forces within her own party, relations with her coalition partner, the implementation of economic promises and public support.
The 61-year-old Takaichi is a remarkable figure. On the one hand, she is portrayed as an ultra-conservative and nationalist who regularly visits the controversial Yasukuni Shrine, and as a Japanese Margaret Thatcher who longs for a strong and prosperous Japan. On the other hand, her youthful passions for heavy metal music, drumming, a love of motorcycles and fast cars, and a workaholic who sleeps only two to four hours a night are cited. However, it wasn’t her personal qualities that won her the award.
For decades, the next prime minister of Japan has been determined by two main factors: factional infighting within the Liberal Democratic Party (PLD), which has governed, with brief interruptions, since 1955, and public support for the cabinet. Since the late 1990s, a third element has been added: the coalition partner.
Faction Fights
The influence of intra-party factions began to wane following the 1993 electoral reform and political financing reform. However, the party and ministerial staffing in the new government demonstrates their continued influence. Takaichi had strong ties to former Prime Minister Shinzo Abe. In the party leadership election, she was supported by Abe’s close ally, Aso Taro, which was reflected in the appointment of key party positions. The cabinet, in which Takaichi’s rivals filled key ministries, ensured a balanced balance of power between the factions—it included fewer women than expected, but the average age of the ministers is lower than in the previous one (59 versus 63).
The role of surveys
Public support is a key factor in determining the duration of a government. A drop below 20% usually signals an imminent end to the government. Takaichi began her term with very high approval ratings, exceeding 70% in polls. The stock market also reacted positively. A few days after her election as party leader, the Nikkei 225 index reached a record high, earning it the nickname “Takaichi Trade.” However, history shows that after the “honeymoon period,” a government’s popularity quickly declines, and factional infighting often shortens prime ministers’ terms.
Coalition partners
Another key factor in the fate of Japanese cabinets is the ability to attract and retain a coalition partner. Since 1994, the PLD has governed through cooperation with other parties, the most important of which, since 1999, has been the small party with Buddhist roots, Kômeitô. Immediately after Takaichi’s election as party leader, Kômeitô unexpectedly ended the alliance, citing platform differences and an attempt to dissociate itself from the PLD’s image, which has been plagued by corruption scandals. The PLD formed a new alliance with the conservative Nippon Ishin no Kai (Ishin for short), or Japan Renewal Association, paving the way for Takaichi to become prime minister. The PLD-Ishin coalition does not have a majority in parliament. Although the Takaichi cabinet’s position is unstable, programmatic convergence with conservative opposition parties, particularly the People’s Democratic Party, offers a chance to remain in power for a longer period.
Economy & Finance
The new PM has presented the basic assumptions of the new government’s policy, taking into account the content of the coalition agreement signed a few days earlier. Learning from the experiences of her mentor, Prime Minister Abe, Takaichi’s Exposé focused primarily on economic and financial issues, particularly addressing the rising cost of living. Among the other proposals were a reduction in the consumption tax, the abolition of temporary tax rates on gasoline and heating oil, and subsidies for electricity and gas bills during the winter months. Public support for the government will depend on the effectiveness and speed of these reforms, and the resulting rapid and visible economic recovery and improvement in citizens’ lives .
Security
Her second major focus was foreign and security policy. She announced the continuation of the reforms initiated by Abe as part of Free and Open Pacific (FOIP) strategy, which experts refer to as “Abe Cabinet 3.0.” The Japan-US alliance remains the foundation, but Japan is also developing a network of partnerships (e.g., the Quad). In addition to accelerating defence spending growth to 2% of GDP, a revision of key security policy documents and the establishment of a central intelligence agency are planned. The aim is to strengthen Japan’s military capabilities and its international standing in a rapidly changing security environment.
Japan and China
Prime Minister Takaichi, like Abe, is known for her pro-Taiwan views. She considers China, alongside North Korea and Russia, a major threat to Japan’s security. At the same time, she recognizes that China is Japan’s largest trading partner, making economic relations with its powerful neighbor crucial. Takaichi’s exposé and first meeting with Xi Jinping point to a continuation of the “cold political, hot economic” model, or in diplomatic terms, a “mutually beneficial relationship based on shared strategic interests.” Diplomatic crises will undoubtedly arise, such as the one sparked by the Prime Minister’s statement on November 7th that a potential Chinese attack on Taiwan could be interpreted as a “situation threatening Japan’s survival,” which would imply the deployment of the Self-Defence Forces.
Japan and South Korea
The meeting between Prime Minister Takaichi and President Lee Jae Myung during the APEC Summit took place in a more positive atmosphere than expected. Despite the many challenges stemming from historical experiences, both sides recognize the need for cooperation, especially as US allies and democracies facing threats from North Korea and China’s growing assertiveness. Therefore, we can expect a continuation of “shuttle diplomacy.” Further positive developments in relations will depend on the South Korean president’s ability to deal with the radical left, and the Japanese prime minister’s ability to deal with the ultra-right, each in its own domestic sphere.
Japan and ASEAN
Takaichi made her diplomatic debut two days after assuming the premiership at the ASEAN Summit in Kuala Lumpur. There, she reaffirmed the key role of regional countries in implementing Japan’s Free and Open Pacific Strategy (FOIP). Japan, highly trusted in the region, is positioned as a positive alternative to the US-China rivalry.
Japan and USA
Immediately after returning from Malaysia, Takaichi hosted US President Donald Trump in Tokyo. She built a positive relationship, capitalizing on Trump’s fondness for the late Prime Minister Abe, but also through declarations to expand defense capabilities and accelerate the increase in GDP spent on military expenditures to 2%. She announced the easing of arms export regulations and cooperation with the US in expanding the shipbuilding industry. Thanks to its experience and technologies, Japan can support the US in its competition with China, including by providing modern warships. Prime Minister Takaichi’s expressive demeanor during the meeting stood out against the traditional reserve of Japanese politicians and was widely commented on in the media as a “charm offensive” and “rock star-like.” How it pans out will be worth a watch. — INFA