There may not be a second peak of Covid-19 in India: Experts

NEW DELHI, 19 Dec: Healthcare experts have said that there may not be a second peak of Covid-19 in the country, and even if it occurs, it is unlikely to be as strong as the first one.

The comments come as the country’s Covid-19 caseload surpassed the 1 crore mark, though the number of daily cases and daily fatalities have been continuously coming down.

Noted virologist Dr Shahid Jameel said India’s curve for daily cases is on a downward slope since a peak in mid-September.

“At this time, we are getting about 25,500 cases daily compared to over 93,000 cases per day in mid-September. I believe the worst is over. But there will be small peaks in the future just as we witnessed in late November,” he said.

“I don’t think there would be a second peak as we have gone through the festive season (Dussehra to Diwali) and a state election without a significant jump. What is the reason for this? If we go by the second national serosurvey, likely cases were 16 times confirmed cases. By that factor, India would have 160 million cases now,” he told PTI.

It is possible that by now there are over 300-400 million infections in the country, Jameel said.

“By that token, we are seeing large parts of the population getting protected and breaking transmission of the virus,” he said.

When asked about a possible second peak of Covid-19, noted clinical scientist Dr Gagandeep Kang opined that the transmission would not be as rapid as was seen the first time and the peak would not be as high.

“I don’t think the exposure is enough to say that we have herd immunity and won’t need to worry about it again, but I think it is enough to ensure that we will have some level of protection, so that the transmission will not be as rapid as was seen the first time and the peak will also be not as high,” she said. (PTI)