The Russian invasion of Ukraine is keeping the whole world in tenterhooks. Russian President Vladimir Putin up the ante on Sunday by ordering the Russian military to put its nuclear forces on “special alert” in response to what he described as Nato “aggression.” His threat of nuclear war has shocked the entire world. The invasion of Ukraine is the fiercest attack on Europe since the World War II and the shocks are being felt all over the world. Political polemics apart, the key question that needs to be asked is whether the world can afford a full-blown war and what impact it could have on the people at large. Russia is one of the world’s biggest exporters of oil and gas and foodgrains. The war and the resultant western sanctions are bound to disrupt the economies around the world as societies are still struggling to emerge from the coronavirus pandemic.
The human costs are immeasurably huge. The United Nations refugee agency said an estimated one lakh Ukrainians had fled their homes. Thousands were crossing into neighbouring countries, including Romania, Moldova, Poland, and Hungary. The military invasion has brought a calamitous end to weeks of fruitless diplomatic efforts by Western leaders to avert war over Russian demands for a redrawing of post-Cold War security arrangements in Europe and preventing Ukraine’s entry into the NATO. Ukraine is now on the verge of becoming a theatre of conflict in a new Cold War. But the world is now more integrated and interconnected, unlike in the past. As a result, the war on Ukraine will lead to grim consequences across the globe. Crude oil prices are likely to soar in the days ahead as Russia accounts for one in every 10 barrels of oil consumed globally and is the largest supplier of natural gas to Europe. For India, which imports around 80 percent of its crude oil requirement, the impact will be far more serious.
However, there is a glimmer of hope that peace might still be achieved after Ukraine’s President Volodymyr Zelensky informed that Ukrainian and Russian delegations are set to meet on the Belarus border for talks. Hope this leads to lasting peace and the end of the war.