By Inder Jit
(Released on My 6, 1980)
Latest developments in the north-east region continue to cause grave anxiety. The stalemate in Assam was bad enough. Matters have now been made worse by the violent happenings in Manipur. Thinking in New Delhi among the ruling circles and the Opposition is, however, dominated mainly by the forthcoming Assembly poll. Outwardly, Mrs Gandhi looks like having won another round already. The Opposition has so far failed to come together. Nevertheless, it has not yet thrown in the sponge. Frantic, even desperate, efforts are still on to get the Opposition to come to some understanding to stop Mrs Gandhi and, more pertinently, Mr Sanjay Gandhi from acquiring absolute power via the States. No, it is not too late yet for the Opposition to forge a common front and prevent a split in its votes to Mrs Gandhi’s advantage. The last date for the withdrawal of nominations is no doubt over. But the Opposition has time still to unite for the common cause. Candidates can retire on the basis of mutual understanding any day prior to the poll.
Candidly, it should not have been impossible for the Opposition to forge some accord. All its top leaders are agreed on the analysis of the national scene, as reflected in the two-day meet of over a hundred Opposition leaders in their individual capacity in Bombay recently. India’s democratic system, according to a paper circulated as the basis for the dialogue, had survived thanks to the intervention of the people. Democratic stirring in the system had since “deepened and extended”. At the same time, however, “the trend to impose a populist, dynastic regime is gathering momentum.” There were “ominous whispers about the inadequacy of the present Parliamentary framework” and the traditions of the Indian national movement for liberation were “sought to be drastically altered to suit the dynastic interests.” Mr Chandra Shekhar seemed to air the general feeling of those present as he reportedly said: “Mafia rule is set to destroy the democratic institutions of our country. The Opposition parties today face a grim challenge.”
The Bombay conclave, convened essentially to forge a credible national alternative to the Congress (I), did not limit itself merely to brave words and to a timely declaration. (The declaration, among other things, called upon the Opposition parties to meet the political challenge posed by the Assembly poll by entering into adjustment of seats wherever possible locally and to avoid any mutual recrimination so as to give an effective fight.) Top Janata, Lok Dal and Congress (U) leaders, who attended the meet, followed up the get-together energetically. Discussions for mutual adjustments were initiated with the Bharatiya Janata Party also. The latter’s response was warm and positive. Alas, however, no acceptable formula could be hammered out. Some wanted tickets distributed on the basis of the 1977 poll and others on that of 1980. Maximum difficulty was, however, created on the question of tickets for seats won by the Congress (1) and which among the parties could be expected to bag them. Not unexpectedly, each side put up exaggerated claims.
At one stage, Mr Karpoori Thakur in Bihar looked like suggesting a practical solution to their mutual difficulties. He proposed that differences on seats might be referred to an agreed person for arbitration or, alternatively, lots might be drawn to settle the controversy. But the proposal fell by the wayside in view of an impasse reached over the question of mutual adjustments in Uttar Pradesh, which continues to be the single largest bone of contention. The Congress (U), the Janata Party and, most important, the Bharatiya Janata Party appear willing to concede without any hesitation that Mr Charan Singh and his Lok Dal are “truly strong” in the State and in an undoubted position to give a tough fight to Mrs. Gandhi, as proved by the Lok Sabha poll. But they have run in to “a dead end” in view of the “inflexible” stand taken by Mr Charan Singh. The Lok Dal Leader reportedly insisted on taking 400 of the 425 seats for his party. According to him, no other Opposition party counts in the State excepting the Bhartiya Janata Party and that some two seats each for the Janata and the Congress (U) should be adequate.
Most Opposition leaders are today wiser by bitter experience. Time was when almost all of them had an exaggerated notion of their personal importance and mass appeal. Many thought of themselves essentially as subedars of feudal days, ever eager to assert their supremacy within their realms and demand their pound of flesh. But today few talk or think in those terms. Charan Singh is said to have changed. Currently, the problem in his case appears to have been caused by personal pique and anger against an alleged conspiracy by some “upper castes” in the Opposition to “outmanoeuvre and cut him down to size” with the help of Mr Raj Narain. He is, therefore, said to be eager now to prove that he is a leader to reckon with and can on his own win a clear majority in UP. The Congress (I), it may be recalled, got 35.6 per cent votes in the Lok Sabha poll, the Lok Dal 29.6 per cent and the Janata, 22.8 per cent. Mr Charan Singh feels that he will get at least 5 per cent of the Janata share in view of the split in the party. This should give him a backing of about 35 per cent and over 240 seats.
Considerable difficulty has also been caused in forging adjustments on one other score: the crisis of credibility. More and more Opposition leaders now realise that only half the battle will be won even if they succeed in putting up agreed Opposition candidates against Congress (I) nominees. The voters would like to get answers to some basic questions before they can be expected to support the Opposition candidates: After the poll, what? Who would form theGovernment? Would such a Government work and be stable? What would be the assurance that it would not repeat in the States the sad experience of the Janata at the Centre and give the people discredited SVD regimes as in 1967? As Mr N.G. Goray told the Bombay conclave: “We have to first establish our credibility.”In fact, almost the entire rank and file of the Bharatiya Janata Party is reportedly opposed to any truck with the other Opposition parties on the ground of credibility. “Do we want to win thepeople’s confidence or do we not?” they ask.
An interesting double-deck formula has now been mooted by some Opposition leaders and independent democrats to overcome the hurdle created by the credibility gap. The Opposition parties are being urged to seek mutual adjustments in terms of the States which are going to the polls instead of a mere adjustment of the seats which raises more questions than it answers. Specifically, it is proposed that the Opposition should agree to divide the States among themselves and the strongest party in each State put up candidates and proceed on the basis that it would form the Government. Accordingly, Lok Dal should be helped to form the Government in Uttar Pradesh and Orissa, the BJP in Madhya Pradesh and Rajasthan, the Janata Party in Gujarat and the Congress (U) inMaharashtra.Opinion is still divided on who should form the Government in Bihar. The Lok Dal’s claim of pre-eminence in the State is questioned by both the Congress (U) and the Janata. Punjab and Tamil Nadu do not yet figure in these moves as none of the four opposition parties enjoys a decisive position. This formula expectedly raises a basic question. But about the three parties who accept the supremacy of the fourth in a Stateand agree to back it for forming the Government? Are they to voluntarily liquidate themselves? An answer is provided by the second part of the formula. It is proposed that the party which is expected to form the Government in a State should graciously agree to give adequate representation to the other three parties. (In U.P., for instance, the Lok Dal would agree to give to the BJP, Janata and Congress (U) from 75 to a hundred seats). Further, the party forming the Government would be expected to emulate Mr Mugabe, free Zimbabwe’s Prime Minister, and make one other gesture to the smaller Opposition parties: give them token but prestigious representation in the Ministry. In a remarkable stroke of statesmanship, Mr Mugabe, it needs to be recalled, invited the other parties to join his Government even when he was in a position to form a single party Government on his own.
Privately, top leaders of all the four parties have responded favourably to the formula. But some major hurdles will still remain to be crossed. The Lok Dal would, for instance, have to find some justification for joining hands with the BJP whom it considers an “untouchable” because of its RSS connexion. The BJP, for its part, would have to make a major sacrifice in U.P. where it had about a hundred MLAs in the dissolved House. The Janata would have to reconcile itself to shaking hands with the Lok Dal which it denounces as a party of “betrayers”. The Congress (U) appears to be taking a pragmatic view and its President, Mr Devaraj Urs, is inclined to play the role of a catalyst and put up an effective fight against Mrs Gandhi. To him and to most otherOpposition leaders, the battle is principally against growing authoritarianism which they regard a “much greater evil than either casteism or communalism.” The odds against unity are clearly heavy. The coming fortnight will show whether the Opposition leaders can rise to the challenge as men of courage and vision. – INFA