A nuanced position on the ongoing Israel-Hamas war, articulated by the External Affairs Ministry, reflects India’s delicate balancing act concerning an issue that is bound to impact its trade and economic interests. In its first official statement on the conflict, the Ministry of External Affairs opted for a balanced approach: condemning the terrorist strike on one hand and, on the other, advocating the resumption of direct negotiations toward establishing a ‘sovereign, independent, and viable State of Palestine’ living within secure and recognized borders, side by side in peace with Israel.
By calling for global efforts to combat the menace of terrorism in all its forms and manifestations, New Delhi has sent a strong signal of support to Israel. At the same time, it has reiterated its long-held stance in favor of a negotiated settlement in which both Palestine and Israel can coexist peacefully with dignity. India’s emphasis on the “universal obligation to observe international humanitarian law” is apparently aimed at Tel Aviv, which is carrying out massive aerial strikes in Gaza. Any further deterioration in the war situation would harm India’s interests, particularly in sectors dependent on crude oil. India relies heavily on crude oil, and any price increase could exacerbate inflation fears. Nearly 60% of India’s crude oil demand is met by the Middle East region. An uncertain Middle East could cause supply interruptions, driving up global oil costs. Oil price increases can exacerbate the country’s current account deficit, putting downward pressure. Moreover, Israel is India’s third-largest trading partner in Asia and tenth globally.