Hasina Out, Yunus In
By Dr. Tomasz Gerlach
(Centre for International Relations Poland)
Bangladesh is not a country that makes headlines. Information from this part of the world rarely appears in the media, sometimes due to subsequent political tensions, and more often when natural elements wreak havoc in the country. However, this summer, Bangladesh became a hot spot because of the revolution which led to the change of the regime.
Nahid Islam, a sociology student at the University of Dhaka, was nominated the spokesman and told the media that the reason for the riots and their violent course was “the destruction of the country with injustice and robbery of state property” on an unprecedented scale. The students requested that the position of a chief advisor to the interim government would be taken by Dr. Muhammad Yunus, an outstanding intellectual and economist, widely known in the country for introducing a system of microfinancing for individual farmers, and also widely known abroad as, among others, winner of the Nobel Peace Prize. He freed Khaleda Zia, a leader of the opposition, and invited young leaders of the students movement and activists for human rights to join him and run the country.
Prof. Yunus’s responsibility is to stabilize the country and lead towards free elections by the end of 2024. However, the situation is far from being stable. Sheik Hassina and her son encourage her party Awami Leage to continue fighting and contest elections. Hundred thousand people who were supporting her regime and participated in its profits don’t want to give up power. Moreover, pro-Muslim sentiments are increasing while the perception of India is deteriorating, seen as a foreign power who supported Sheik Hassina’s regime.
Before Hassina’s fall, statistics cited positive economic performance for Dhaka. Bangladesh has blossomed in the South Asian Association of States SAARC group since its formation in 1985. SAARC has similar goals for South Asian countries as ASEAN for the Southeast Asian region, maintaining peace and security, developing business relations based on FTA agreements, cooperation based on equal opportunities, and building prosperity for their societies.
For many decades, Bangladesh and India have been each other’s most important trading partners. In trade relations with SAARC countries, Bangladesh was characterized by a surplus of its exports over imports of goods from these countries. According to the Economic Complexity Index, Bangladesh was ranked 54th among the world’s largest exporters. In turn, Transparency International has repeatedly placed Bangladesh on the list of the most corrupt countries in the world.
The latest data also showed upward trends in the country’s GDP – ADB predicted a 6.1% increase in 2024 and 6.5% next year, these data would be better than for Pakistan (1.9% increase) and for Sri Lanka (1.9%). 9%), Maldives (5.4%), Bhutan (4.4%) and Nepal (3.6%), except India, which in 2024 will enjoy a 7% GDP growth. Inflation will reach 8.4% in 2024, and GDP per capita growth is expected to reach 5.7% this year.
International organizations in this year’s reports predicted that Bangladesh would cope with combating poverty at home and by 2026 it would achieve the goal set by the authorities of leaving the world’s least developed countries (LDCs); they provided data on poverty reduction from 11% in 2010 to 5 % in 2022. Moreover, they recorded increasingly better rates of infant mortality, illiteracy and increasing access to electricity, typical for this group of countries.
In the initial period of Hasina’s rule, the country was developing, poverty was decreasing, and Bangladesh could even be described as an example of prosperity in South Asia. However, Sheik Hassina could not cope with the basic problems that society faced, especially unemployment and corruption.
Many times, when Bangladesh was led by the BNP and the very popular Sheikh Khaleda Zia, Hasina was accused of various crimes, including criminal ones; the list of allegations against her was extensive. Nevertheless, this did not prevent her further political career. From time to time, social revolts were happening but there were bloodily suppressed and the number of victims of persecution among oppositionists increased.
The confusion and chaos that the coup caused put the Bangladesh economy and society to a dangerous test of strength, also due to traditional religious tensions. In the past the country’s Hindu population often fell victim to violence from the Muslim majority during similar political upheavals. This is what happened now.
After the coup in Dhaka, there was already an exodus to India of Hindus from Bangladesh, who feared, not without reason, for their lives; immediately after Hasina stepped down, extreme Islamist groups attacked and destroyed businesses and homes of members of the ruling Awami League, as well as temples of the Hindu minority who traditionally supported the ruling party. For this reason, the advisor to the interim government, Dr. Mohammad Yunus, called Prime Minister Modi assuring him that the authorities are doing everything they can to make Hindus feel safe in Bangladesh.
For many decades, it seemed that Bangladesh’s prosperity, based mainly on textile exports, would continue, and world opinion believed this to be the case. The population was fed this myth by media propaganda. The relatively good economic results predicted by ADB, IMF and other international agencies must now be gradually verified as the political situation in the country normalizes.
The Bhattacharya Commission, appointed by prof. yunus to investigate Hasina’s financial situation and governance, is already producing documentation showing financial abuse and corruption of her officials and an unprecedented state debt of more than three years of GDP. The figure of the former prime minister is fading more and more. Bhattacharya, in one of his public statements, said that what happened in Bangladesh was not unique. It starts with a departure from pluralism in internal politics, then from responsibility in a democratic spirit, until it comes to filling all important positions in state administration with “one’s own” people, and these are the phenomena that have taken place in Bangladesh in recent decades. In the past Hasina has been repeatedly accused of abuse of power, corruption and other pathologies of power.
What happened in Bangladesh fits perfectly into the broader spectrum of the emerging conflict in the Indo-Pacific region between the United States and China. Comments in the Asian media link the events in Dhaka with the activation of Washington’s policy towards the countries of the ASEAN region and the Indo-Pacific region.
Animosities between ethnic groups living in the ASEAN region are now being used in the US-China game in the region. This was most visible in Burma, where in recent weeks the so-called National Army of the Democratic Alliance of Shan ethnicities captured one of Burma’s government military bases in Lashio, on the border with China. The Shan people have been one of the ethnic minorities fighting for self-determination for years. Their military success not only harms the interests of the junta, but also the Chinese trade route leading through Lashio to Mandalay and further to Burmese ports, where the Chinese are also strengthening their military presence.
For China, Bangladesh was an important trading partner. In this region, for several years now, China has started to strengthen its position through infrastructure investments from Sri Lanka, through Myanmar, and the Indochinese peninsula. China supported Hasina’s government because it was comfortable with Bangladesh’s relatively stable economy and political situation. China’s response to Hasina’s ouster has so far been cautious. China expressed its opinion that the situation would settle peacefully, and at the same time, the Chinese “Global Times” of August 5th called for the need for mutual support between India and China on issues happening in the immediate region in such a way that both countries do not lose the status of world powers.
The fall of Sheikh Hasina’s government is a big problem for New Delhi. if only because she managed to escape to India. Formally, however, she cannot feel completely safe there, because both countries had signed a bilateral treaty on the mutual extradition of people accused of serious crimes. Meanwhile, the former prime minister has already been accused in her country of causing political murders, not to mention tolerating corruption and similar pathologies. It is a kind of paradox, or twist of fate, that she is now facing the same charges as the murderers of her father, Mujibur Rahman.
For Prime Minister Modi, Hasina’s arrival in India has become a serious nut to crack. It has long been known that the Indian authorities have for years become emotionally attached to Majibur Rahman’s Awami League, which was led by Hasina until recently. In bilateral relations, New Delhi looked at the Bangladesh National Party-BNP with distrust as its leaders had always had close emotional ties to Pakistan, which obviously conflicted with the Indian raison d’état.
What’s more over the decades there have been tensions on both sides of the border, not only due to disputes over the management of the Ganges waters. India has often accused the Bangladeshi authorities of sheltering terrorist groups operating in India’s north-eastern states, and Bangladesh’s security was, in turn, threatened by terrorists from Islamist groups operating from Indian Assam and West Bengal (Jamaat-ul-Majahideen Bangladesh – JMB) and accused India of the same.
This was an important reason for sparking mutual relations, and the ideology of the Awami League was a kind of platform for maintaining political dialogue, especially in periods of crisis. Now that the League has disappeared from the forefront of Bangladesh’s domestic politics, India will have to take a good look at the vacuum that has arisen in mutual relations.
Bangladesh has built its own identity over the years and considers itself a democratic country since parliamentary elections are held and there are political parties. The coup in Bangladesh may have had the character of a “military coup” behind the outbreak of social discontent and student protests. By establishing a temporary civilian government, its authors avoided the imposition of economic and political sanctions on the country.
The appointment of 84-year-old Dr. Muhammad Yunus as an interim Prime Minister, was a signal to Washington that Bangladesh is considering undertaking reforms to democratize political life in the country. The demands for further democratization made in Bangladesh were echoed in Thailand, where the Supreme Court banned the Move Forward party, suspecting that it was preparing students demonstrations in Bangkok similar to those in Dhaka.
This entire series of events also affects the road and rail communication route being built by India from the north-eastern Indian states of Assam and Meghalaya through Burma to the Indochinese peninsula and to sea ports in Vietnam, and, consequently, threatens the further implementation of Prime Minister Modi’s “ActEast” policy and his ambitions to strengthen India’s position in the region. In this context, Hasina’s fall is a serious challenge and a warning of how far India can go.
Demands for the democratization of political life and respect for human rights have been for years directed from West to Asian governments, steeped in the traditions of autocratic rule and served as agendas for influencing the situation there. Bangladesh has taken its first steps on this path a long time ago and now it can go further. However, the gradual calming down of the situation after the coup does not guarantee the implementation of democratic practices. —- INFA