By Dr. Ewa Fronczak
(Center for International Relations, Poland)
The numbers don’t lie – the Chinese People’s Liberation Army (PLA) is currently the largest armed force in the world, and the fact that it is constantly transforming towards greater flexibility and technological advancement increases its combat potential year by year.
The first “China Military Strength Report” was produced by the U.S. Department of Defence in 2000, and has been updated every year since then, with the latest one appearing in December last year.
The PLA is the world’s largest active military, consisting of some 2.035 million active-duty soldiers, 510,000 reservists, and 500,000 paramilitary personnel, totaling more than 3 million personnel. The primary goal of China’s military structure is to fully modernize its national defence and armed forces by 2035, and to become a world-class army by 2049; one that can engage in conflict on the periphery of the PRC as well as project power in distant theaters.
To achieve this, modernization will encompass all domains of warfare-land, air, sea, nuclear, space, electronics, and information. Among the weaknesses and shortcomings in China’s combat capabilities, the report cites urban warfare and long-range logistics capabilities.
One of the key observations worth noting is that China is in the process of continuous, steady modernization and increasing resources for the development of its military; each successive report records increasingly higher numbers in every area analyzed. According to the authors, this proves Xi Jinping’s unwavering determination to have an army that can ensure the achievement of his most important political goals – the “renaissance of the Chinese nation” by 2049 and unification with Taiwan.
Second, China continues to rapidly expand and modernize its nuclear forces, seeking to give itself greater control over the dynamics of escalation in a potential conflict with a significant adversary. The U.S. estimates that China has more than 600 operational nuclear warheads, up from 500 last year, and will have another 1,000 by 2030. This expansion includes intercontinental ballistic missiles (ICBMs), such as the DF-41, which are capable of striking most of the U.S., among other areas.
The PLA Rocket Force significantly enhances China’s missile capabilities, which are:
Ä DF-15 (CSS-6) – a short-range tactical ballistic missile from 725 to 850 km enabling precision attacks on regional targets
Ä DF-21D (CSS-5 Mod 5) – anti-ship ballistic missile, which, thanks to its range of over 1,500 km, poses a serious threat to ships and aircraft carriers
Ä DF-26 – a medium-range ballistic missile with high versatility. It can carry conventional or nuclear warheads to a distance of up to 5,000 km, thus covering the Western Pacific, Indian Ocean and South China Sea
Ä The DF-27, currently under development, has a range of 5,000 to 8,000 km and capabilities that include both land-attack and anti-ship capabilities. In addition to conventional anti-ship modes, it can also carry hypersonic, conventional and nuclear payloads for land attack. Potential targets include Guam, Alaska and Hawaii, the Americans emphasize.
The Chinese are also surprising in hypersonic technology. For example, the DF-17 missile is equipped with a hypersonic glide vehicle (HGV) and has a range of over 16,000 km. Thanks to its high speed and maneuverability, it is difficult to detect and intercept, posing a challenge to existing missile defence systems.
Third, in addition to expanding its nuclear arsenal, China is also improving the other elements of the nuclear triad. Three new missile fields with 320 silos for intercontinental ballistic missiles (ICBMs) were recently completed. In the meantime, work is underway on new, more survivable ICBMs. As the second leg of China’s nuclear triad, nuclear ballistic missile submarines conduct near-constant deterrent patrols. China’s JL-3 ballistic missiles launched from such submarines can reach the mainland United States from bases in the South China Sea or the Bohai Gulf. The nuclear triad is completed by the H6-N air-launched ballistic missile bomber. In addition, work is underway on a new H-20 stealth bomber with a range of over 10,000 km.
Fourth, China has the world’s largest navy, with over 370 ships and submarines (61 active submarines, including twelve nuclear-powered), while the Pentagon predicts it will have 395 ships by 2025 and 435 by 2030. The Chinese navy is continuing to build RENHAI-class guided-missile cruisers (CG), LUYANG III MOD-class guided-missile destroyers (DDG), and JIANGKAI II MOD-class and JIANGKAI III-class guided-missile frigates from the first half of 2024. The fourth YUSHEN-class (Type 075) amphibious assault ship will begin sea trials in late summer. Construction has also begun on a new YULAN-class (Type 076) LHA, which will be equipped with an electromagnetic catapult for unmanned aerial vehicles. In 2025, the third CV-18 Fujian aircraft carrier will enter service. In the near future, the Chinese navy will be able to conduct long-range precision strikes against land targets from its submarines and surface ships using cruise missiles to attack land targets, which will significantly increase its ability to project power.
Fifth, the Chinese Air Force is the largest air force in the Indo-Pacific region and the third largest in the world, with over 3,150 aircraft (excluding training or unmanned aerial vehicles), of which about 2,400 are combat aircraft (including fighters, strategic bombers, tactical bombers, tactical multirole aircraft, and attack aircraft). The J-16 is the latest fourth-generation multirole fighter, which will be capable of carrying the PL-17 long-range air-to-air missile. As of 2023, more than 225 J-16s were in service, with plans to produce more in the coming years. As for fifth-generation stealth fighters, the latest acquisition is the J-20, manufactured by the domestic Aviation Industry Corp of China.
Sixth, China is building a global military and investing in capabilities that will allow it to project power far beyond the first island chain. In 2023, the PLA Navy continued to enhance its ability to carry out missions beyond the first island chain, and in the near future will have the ability to conduct long-range precision strikes against land targets from its submarines and surface ships. The PLA’s air force bomber fleet also has the ability to conduct long-range precision strikes against targets in the second island chain from home bases in mainland China.
The report noted that China is seeking to expand its overseas logistics and base infrastructure and that it has likely considered a variety of countries as locations for military logistics facilities, including: Burma, Thailand, Indonesia, Pakistan, Sri Lanka, the United Arab Emirates, Cuba, Kenya, Equatorial Guinea, the Seychelles, Tanzania, Angola, Nigeria, Namibia, Mozambique, Gabon, Bangladesh, Papua New Guinea, the Solomon Islands, and Tajikistan.
Seventh, the modernization of the Chinese military is possible thanks to a world-class defence industrial base. Most importantly, China has managed to close the entire production chain at home and is able to independently produce a wide range of combat ships, gas turbines and diesel engines, and ship weapons and electronic systems, making it almost self-sufficient. It has sufficient production capacity to build various classes of ships: submarines, surface ships, and auxiliary and landing ships. This is in stark contrast to the US defence industrial base, which is struggling to produce everything from submarines to surface ships and ammunition, lagging far behind in this field .
Eighth, the report notes that China’s leaders see unification with Taiwan as a fundamental condition for national rejuvenation, to be achieved by 2049. Throughout 2023, Beijing has been increasing diplomatic, political, and military pressure on the island, using a range of tactics, including maintaining a naval presence and holding major military exercises near the island. According to Taiwan’s Ministry of National Defence, PLA incursions into Taiwanese airspace continued throughout the year, with a slight decrease in 2023 to 1,641 incidents compared to 1,733 the previous year. Chinese documents list a naval and air blockade of Taiwan among possible scenarios, which should be taken very seriously. In March of this year, Beijing held its largest-ever military exercise simulating such a blockade .
Last but not least, space and counter-space operations. China has devoted significant economic and technological resources to developing an advanced space program, improving military space applications, developing human spaceflight, and conducting lunar and Mars exploration missions. In 2023, 67 space launches were carried out, placing more than 200 satellites into orbit, making China second only to the United States.
In sum, over the past two decades, China has achieved the most noticeable increase in military power since World War II. Against the backdrop of the global security scene, the modernization of the Chinese armed forces is an element of a broader national policy aimed at strengthening China’s position in the world. The main challenge for the Middle Kingdom is the growing rivalry between the powers, and according to China, the culprit is the US, which, in the name of defending its own national interests, is undermining global stability and reshaping the existing balance of power to its advantage. Although the famous Chinese proverb says, “The sound of a weapon is the defeat of a strategist,” and Xi will certainly do everything to avoid a military clash with the American superpower, he is also preparing his country for the worst-case scenario. Such a rapid and multi-faceted process of developing the Chinese army (not limited only to equipment modernization, but also encompassing organizational reforms and changes in the command system) is intended to provide greater flexibility and response capabilities in the face of the dynamically changing international situation.
Xi Jinping seems to understand perfectly well that with an inexperienced army at his disposal, he has no choice but to first and foremost equip and train it perfectly. The Pentagon Report described above, and the twenty-four previous ones, confirm that the leader of the Middle Kingdom is doing this with unwavering determination and effectiveness, increasing his chances of winning the ongoing systemic war of the two largest economic entities on this globe from year to year. — INFA