Bihar’s Poll Chakravyu
By Poonam I Kaushish
Countdown for Bihar Assembly elections has begun. With 7.4 cr voters sealing the fate of who among 243 MLAs sits on the State’s Raj Sihasan 14 November. While BJP-led NDA under JD(U) Chief Minister Nitish Kumar seeks another term in office, RJD-Congress Mahagathbandhan is aiming to unseat the ruling coalition. Will newbie Prashant Kishore’s Jan Suraj be the disruptor?
Yet, lonely lies the head that wears the crown. And nobody knows this better than Nitish who is fighting hard to retain his titles of Bihar’s Chanakya and Sushasan Babu in a State where politics runs deep, thriving on opportunism, self promotion and caste remains integral to the political discourse and electoral positioning.
In fact, caste dynamics will be the underpinning of electoral choices of Parties, drawing both from old positions and new calculations. Candidly, confessed a senior JD (U) leader, “There nothing called vote for development, at least not in Bihar.”
Till yesterday, it was a given that 74-year-old Nitish would come back for his fifth term, but today it seems he’ll have to claw to retain his position with luck favouring him. And it is not anti-incumbency and alienation alone which is gnawing him.
Past his prime with two decades in power eroding freshness of his early years, health issues and Party lacking second-rung leadership worth the name, Nitish seems no longer master of ceremonies and has lost contact with ordinary voters. True, he is State’s tallest leader feted as champion of Bihar’s Turnaround Success but some dub him Old Guard who’s encumbering Gen Next to rewrite a new script.
Forgotten is JD(U) restored law and order, started many welfare schemes empowered women and Mahadalits, built roads, provided free electricity, potable water in rural areas, promised jobs and employment opportunities. Succinctly, issues Nitish has already encashed in four polls. With a less than 20% vote share Scheduled and Backward castes discontent is now born of insufficient empowerment.
There’s clamour for badlav, one many perceive Nitish is incapable of delivering. Having raised aspirational levels, Sushasan Babu seems to be faltering in engaging and addressing youngsters’ ambitions and key issues like rozgar. Bihar is falling behind in development rafter,is the common refrain.
But all is not lost. The TINA factor (there is no alternative) has tempered criticism against him. Alongside parivartan, one also needs modicum of trust and reassurance which Nitish embodies. Ironically, the section which seems to be holding fast to him are mostly upper castes whose loyalty lies with Modi.
True, BJP can look forward to filling the vacuum. But it’s not going to be a cake-walk. Despite Party’s efforts to expand its social base, it’s largely perceived as an upper castes Party of forwards accounting for 10%. Ironically, Congress’s ‘High Command’ culture is now heard in BJP too, which seems to have got used to power and its trappings.
Alongside, induction of turncoats, seen by many as “polluting influence” and adherence to Hindutva brings its own share of problems: scaring away Muslims, including Pasmandas, whom Nitish won over despite being BJP’s ally.
BJP with its well-oiled Party machinery and backed by powerhouse RSS is upbeat. On two scores. First, Nitish’s popularity is on the wane. Pollsters point JD(U) Chief’s ratings hover between 35%-40%, the right time for Saffronites to strike and explore a future without him dragging them down.
Second, over 20 years when Mandal politics steered the State, BJP used Nitish to gain legitimacy in the Mandal ecosystem but now Modi-Shah realize he has outlived his utility for the Hindutva brigade. It comes as no surprise that BJP continues to play footsie with LJP’s Chirag by using him to target JD(U) leaders. Keen to acquire power on its own steam it hopes for bigger tally than JD(U).
Undoubtedly, even as BJP continues to parrot Nitish as NDA’s Chief Ministerial choice, yet Prime Minister Modi is known to spring a surprise. Perhaps the reason why savvy gentleman Nitish is rattled and beginning to lose his cool at rallies, wondering whether BJP will stick to its pledge or dump him if JD(U)’s electoral numbers don’t add up. Given that there doesn’t seem to be much love between the two wary allies. His personalised attacks on Lalu-Tejashawi are uncharacteristic of his unflappable demeanour.
Tejashwi, leader of Opposition’s Mahagadbandhan comprising Congress, CPM-CPI and smaller Parties is defying pre-poll odds and putting up a stiff contest. Issues raised by him seem to be setting the agenda of debate. Ambitious and articulate the RJD Chief has not only vanquished his siblings in the family turf war but also learned some political tricks from father Lalu and got under Nitish’s skin.
Consequently, he’s busy wooing his new social support of job seekers alongside Lalu’s MY social base and gain their confidence. Sensing opportunity, he is quickly moving to neutralise opponents by connecting with masses specially six crores young voters by being jocular, voicing catchy slogans and speaking in local dialect. “This election is being fought on ‘kamai, padhai and dawai”, he asserts.
Congress is fighting for prestige to gain some kind of foothold in Bihar. The tussle over seat-sharing has assumed a new dimension with the Party hardening its stand against 2020 formula that saw it contest 70 Assembly seats but won only 19, with two MLAs defecting leaving only 17. Citing its poor strike rate, RJD is playing hard ball pushing to offload some of its own weak seats on Congress.
LJP Chirag Paswan seems to have come into his own and is at best, making a play at defeating Nitish on the coat-tails of Dalits who comprise over 17% of population and could be one of the game-changers. He’s also giving cover to BJP to emerge with maximum seats by eating into JD(U) votes.
Pertinently, at the root, is the State’s caste politics whereby its dynamics will be the underpinning of electoral choices of Parties, drawing both from old positions and new calculations tracing back to the Mandal politics of the late-1980s and the ensuing social-engineering experiments.
While Nitish’s politics is anchored on its political appeal towards the Most Backward Classes ( loose term for non-Yadav OBCs) and Mahadalits, Tejashawi is banking on Yadav-Muslim combine, Chirag on Paswans and BJP on upper caste base now stronger than before.
Undoubtedly, the Bihar election could well be the harbinger of change, nationally. With half of India’s population in 18-35 age bracket the aspirational levels of a young democracy has changed dramatically. No longer are old clichés, Styrofoam promises and histrionics palatable. All demand an Obama-like “Yes we can” and Trump’s MAGA (Make America Great Again) politics. Whereby progress is all set to overshadow Mandal-Kamandal politics.
However it will not be roses all the way. In an age of 24/7 digital world of post-truth and post-ideology politicking, there is the stirrings of new politics. An intent generation is unlikely to remain content in a scenario where a new incumbent Chief Minister create jobs or contain rural distress. They will no longer settle for any political hyperbole from the morass of empty commitments and promises of delivering palpable changes on the ground.
The Bihar poll has ignited a new chingari where everything is up in the air and thrown up new possibilities. Time for our netagan to walk the talk on the new lexicon: Develop, govern or we will boot you out! —— INFA