The killing of Qassem Suleimani, the Iranian commander targeted by an American strike last Thursday night, is the most consequential act taken against the regime in Tehran in 30 years. Even if we don’t know what those consequences will be, one thing is clear: we’re entering a dangerous period, in which the conflict between the two countries could easily spin out of control. US President Donald Trump, who is entering election year and is facing impeachment back home, has taken a huge gamble by authorizing the killing of general Suleimani. Iran has vowed revenge, and only Iran knows when it is going to hit back at the US. Many see the killing as an attempt by the erratic Trump to boost his image in order to win the election.
Trump has warned of launching more attacks if Iran responds to the killing. Suleimani’s biography as a pivotal figure in Iran and the region is well known. Since the late 1990s, he was engaged in trying to remake the Middle East to Iran’s advantage, directing his proxies to kill or dispatch anyone who impeded his vision of an Iranian-dominated sphere of influence, stretching from Tehran to the Mediterranean Sea. He was remarkably successful, legendary even – certainly the most influential operative in the region in modern times. His work in Syria, Lebanon and Iraq has made Iran very influential in these countries. There is no denying that Suleimani’s death is a heavy blow to the Iranian regime. He was not just the central figure in the country’s foreign policy and military; he was also considered a pillar of the Revolution itself. Since 1979, Iran has regarded its defence against foreign enemies, particularly the United States, as central to its survival. The biggest danger concerning the whole world now, of course, is how Iranians respond, and possibly miscalculate, and then the United States does the same. That’s how wars start.