[ Vandana Upadhyay ]
Over the last few decades, the state of Arunachal Pradesh has crossed a long journey in a comparatively short period of time. Today’s Arunachal Pradesh stands between the legacy of an ancient civilization and the promising horizons of a boundless future. This moment is, in fact, appropriate to reflect upon the journey covered so far. Celebration of the journey, in its true spirit, does not lie in uncritical celebration of milestones and achievements, but real appreciation of the progress made so far can be made through a dispassionate analysis of gaps, failures and alternative possibilities. This short piece cannot possibly do justice to the many important facets of the fascinating journey of Arunachal Pradesh in different spheres. Hence only some aspects of the state’s experience are being selectively highlighted in an effort to outline some of the achievements and significant challenges lying ahead.
Economic growth
Given the historical legacy of relative isolation and underdevelopment, the progress made by Arunachal Pradesh on the economic front in a comparatively short span of few decades is quite impressive. During the period of 1971 to 2001, the Net State Domestic Product (NSDP) had registered an average annual growth rate of 7.34 percent per annum. Further, the annual average growth rate in the Gross State Domestic Product (GSDP) was around 4 percent during the periods 2011-2012 and 2019-2020, much below the all-India average of 6 percent during the same periods. The per capita GSDP for the state was about 80 percent of the all-India average as in 2019-2020. Agriculture is an important sector in the economy with almost half of the workforce involved in it, though it contributes around 18 percent to the state’s income (2019-2020). Although the growth rate was much higher in the seventies and in the eighties than in the nineties and the 2000s, given the low levels of initial development, difficult ecological preconditions and geo-political constraints of being a border state, the development of the economy, in overall terms, may seem satisfactory. The dismal performance of the state’s economy in the past decades, particularly under the twin effects of fiscal contraction in the post-reform period and the de-industrializing consequences of the restrictions on timber trade, needs to be addressed with a forward-looking and realistic vision. As such industrialization never really had a firm footing in the state’s economy, the restrictions on timber trade imposed by the Supreme Court of India led to the closure of many of the timber-based industries. It is important to note that, in the last three decades, the contribution of manufacturing has never exceeded 7 percent of the state’s income. The key aspect of the changing sectoral composition of the state is that the expansion of the service sector has been almost entirely driven by government-sector activities. Public administration alone contributes substantially to the NSDP of the state.
Structural imbalances
The decade of the 1990s seems to have reinforced the structural imbalances of the state’s economy. Apart from the relatively slow growth of NSDP during this decade, Arunachal’s dependence on the service sector in general and public administration in particular increased substantially. Like many other states of Northeast India, Arunachal Pradesh continues to remain heavily dependent upon the central government’s assistance. The predominant role of the state as the prime economic actor and the dependence of the state government on central government aid and loans have crucially conditioned the pattern of development of Arunachal Pradesh over the past decades. A culture of dependence is bad for the economy in the long-run, and hence, there has to be strong political will for greater mobilization of resources at the state level to address the specific problems of Arunachal Pradesh, particularly in the light of important changes in the realm of fiscal policy at the central level.
Unequal development
Along with monetization of the exchange process and gradual commercialization of the economy, interpersonal inequalities in the distribution of income, assets and opportunities have grown manifold. While the elaborate networks of redistribution and reciprocity prevented the emergence of inequality in the traditional economy of the communities, under the mutually reinforcing influences of the market and the state, the gradual economic differentiation of the indigenous population has led to the emergence of inequalities in various spheres of life. Unless the potentially destabilizing implications of the emerging inequalities are taken note of, the future, in all likelihood, would be far more conflict-ridden than the present.
The spatially uneven process of development in the state has also created new challenges and constraints. Typically, areas near the urban administrative centres have better infrastructural facilities than the interiors. In the last few years, infrastructure development has really picked up in the state. But disparities do exist between regions. The areas surrounding the Itanagar Capital Region (ICR) have developed in terms of railway and road connectivity. The greenfield airport is likely to be made operational by the year-end. But the basic infrastructure facilities in the eastern part of the state are still in a very dilapidated condition. The Siang and Kameng regions have experienced development in terms of excellent road connectivity. But the same does not hold true for the hill districts at the borders and the eastern part of the state. Arunachal Pradesh has been the home of a number of tribes and sub-tribes, and many of them had limited mobility beyond their well-defined local boundaries. Inter-regional disparities in the state, therefore, has an additional implication – in many cases, up to an extent, it may reflect inter-tribal disparities.
Human development
Although Arunachal Pradesh until recently has been relatively free from secessionist violence and insurgency, its development performance, particularly in terms of the human development indicators, has not been satisfactory. Among the eight northeastern states, it was at the bottom in terms of Human Development Index (HDI), according to the National Human Development Report, 2001. In terms of the Human Poverty Index, barring Meghalaya, its position is the worst in the region. Since then, however, the position of Arunachal Pradesh has improved.
But in 2005-06, the HDI of Arunachal Pradesh improved to 0.687 and its rank among the eight northeastern states was sixth. Further, in 2012-13, the HDI of Arunachal Pradesh improved to 0.740 and its rank among the northeastern states was fifth (Roy, 2017). Sikkim is the only state in the Northeast that improved all the dimensions of human development during the said period. In 2005-06 its position among 32 states and union territories was 13th and in 2012-13 Sikkim moved up to the third position – it is indeed the outcome of rapid improvements in health, education and economic performance. This is a feat which no other Indian state or union territory exhibited in the period studied.
In 2012-13, among the northeastern states, Sikkim stood first and Assam’s position was last in human development.
In 2001 and 2011, Arunachal Pradesh had the lowest literacy rate among all the northeastern states, as well as the highest urban-rural gap and the highest gender gap in literacy. In terms of enrollment, dropout rates and school availability, the state’s performance, in a comparative perspective, has hardly been satisfactory.
In education, the lowest position is occupied by Arunachal Pradesh, the state whose literacy rate is one of the lowest in the country. Only Bihar has a literacy rate lower than Arunachal’s, as per the 2011 census.
In regard to the percentage of population living below the national poverty percentage, as per 2010-11 base, 34.64 percent of the people in Arunachal Pradesh were found to be living below the poverty line, while for India it was 21.92 percent (GoI, 2020).
While it is always possible to explain away this relative underperformance of Arunachal Pradesh by citing many historical, geographical and economic constraints, any forward-looking strategy of development for the state has to address these issues in their entirety as well as local specificities.
Gender relations
A significant aspect of the recent development experiences of Arunachal Pradesh has been the gender gap in wellbeing and opportunities. Either old barriers, which created differential treatments for men and women, are not withering away or, by chance or by design, new barriers are being created. There seems to be lots of misconception regarding the position of women in the society in the context of rapid social change. In comparative terms, in terms of some of the indicators of gender equality, most notably nutritional status and decision-making within the household, Arunachal Pradesh has done better than the national average. But what is surprising is the relative underperformance of the state in comparison to other states of the northeastern region. This argument is substantiated in the following passages by looking at selected indicators.
Child sex ratio
The child sex ratio (CSR), which is defined as number of girls per 1,000 boys in the age group of 0-5 years, is an important indicator of development. The child sex ratio (CSR), which is less likely to be affected by migration, has registered a sharp decline in the state from 982 in 1991 to 961 in 2001, but then it increased to 972 in 2011. This decline, which was sharper in the rural areas in earlier years, has been sharper in the urban areas in recent years. It is important to note here that the CSR in the state declined by 21 points during 1991-2001, whereas at the all India level it declined by 18 points. But in 2011 there was an increase by 11 points during 2001-2011 for the state of Arunachal Pradesh.
The low child sex ratio is generally associated with female disadvantage and the explanation for its low value is provided in terms of discrimination against female children. Many studies, however, point out that discrimination against the female children is relatively less severe in predominantly tribal societies. The low and falling CSR in Arunachal Pradesh, thus, needs further investigation.
Infant mortality rate
Infant mortality rate (IMR) is not a measure of overall health status, but it captures, to a great extent, the conditions of socio-cultural and medical technology of a society. As far as the level of IMR is concerned, the fall in mortality rate has been more rapid in this state than in many other states in the country. Given a strong positive correlation between the IMR and the overall mortality rate, we can safely conclude that the health status of the people in Arunachal Pradesh has improved markedly over the decades. The infant mortality rate in the state of Arunachal Pradesh has declined from 126 per 1,000 live births in 1961 to 107 in 1981 to 40 in 2002 to 37 in 2018 to 29 per 1,000 live births in 2019. The sustained reduction in the mortality rate has been made possible by the expansion of medical facilities, the enhanced availability of food and the spread of literacy. But a lot more needs to be done.
In 2020, the infant mortality rate of India was 29.07 deaths per thousand live births. Between 1971 and 2020, the infant mortality rate of India was declining at a moderating rate to shrink from 139.19 deaths per thousand live births in 1971 to 29.07 deaths per thousand live births in 2020.
Access to employment
In terms of occupational structure, although women have been gradually moving out of agriculture and allied activities, they are lagging behind men in the extent of shifts to the secondary and tertiary sectors. Even when they are employed in non-agricultural occupations, particularly in government services, a higher proportion of women workers are found in the lowest ranks of the job hierarchy. While the share of female workers in the service sector expanded more than that of the male workers during recent decades, this growth has also been accompanied by ghettoization of women workers in the lowest paid jobs.
Youth unemployment rate has been recorded at 9 percent, and among the educated youths in the secondary level and above, it was as high as 24 percent (2017-2019).
Gender gaps in literacy
The gap between male and female literacy rates in the state declined very slowly during 1981-2011. In rural areas, the gender gap in literacy is sharper than that in the urban areas, remaining at 20 percent during the first two decades. Even in 2011, the state of Arunachal Pradesh had the highest gender gap in literacy at 14.12 percent among all the northeastern states. This needs to be addressed in all future initiatives, as access to education means access to better earnings and also it has an intrinsic value for human wellbeing.
Access to healthcare
Notwithstanding the significant efforts that have gone into establishing modern healthcare system in the state, it must be emphasized that the access of women in general and of rural and poor women in particular remains very low in comparison with the national average. According to the National Family Health Survey-5 (2019-2021) only 53.1 percent of mothers received antenatal check-ups and only 36.5 percent had at least four antenatal care visits. The positive aspect was that as high as 82 percent of births were assisted by trained personnel. Further, it was also reported that as high as 56.6 percent of the children aged between 6 and 59 months in the state were found to be anaemic, while only 22 percent of the children aged 6-23 months received adequate diet. There is a great deal of rural-urban disparity and also high concentration of these services in the few urban administrative centres.
Looking forward
Is it possible to come out of these cycles of marginalization and deprivation? Will it be possible for a state like Arunachal Pradesh, given its economic condition, to design policies that are more inclusive and more responsive to the marginalized sections? These are difficult questions, but there is always a possibility to learn from the neighbours and others. The Kerala model of development, despite its many other problems, has very clearly established that, for achieving better standards of human development, low levels of income cannot be used as an excuse. It is not necessarily the levels of investment which is the major constraint but the priority that is attached to social sector development, which determines the human development outcome. It is not only Kerala, in recent years, other mountainous states, like Himachal Pradesh and Sikkim, have also made rapid progress in the areas of education and health. Female literacy levels are much higher in tribal-dominated states of the the Northeast. All thinking individuals of the state should start reflecting, collectively and individually, regarding the constraints, real or artificial, in the path of making development more equitable and just in Arunachal Pradesh.
The fundamental challenges facing the government and civil society in Arunachal Pradesh today include the tasks of secularizing governance and democratizing development. The goals of building capabilities, expanding choices and safeguarding freedoms cannot be achieved unless the development process is made more inclusive and participatory. The often talked about but least implemented bottom-up approach to development is likely to suit the aspirations of the people in this state with so much cultural and ecological diversity. However, there is an urgent need to develop a transparent and non-discriminatory framework for governance, which in turn requires effective monitoring mechanisms and accountability at all levels. While there is always scope for enhancing public investment in the development of physical and social infrastructure, mere announcement of financial packages, without an institutional strategy that ensures proper utilization of the fund will only reinforce the existing cycles of corruption, inefficiency and perpetual dependence. The role of civil society in this transformation can hardly be overstressed. (Prof Vandana Upadhyay teaches in the Department of Economics, Rajiv Gandhi University, Rono Hills.)
