[ Ripi Bagra ]
The timing of Prime Minister Narendra Modi’s visit to Bhutan, merely a week after Bhutanese PM Tshering Tobgay’s visit to India from 14 to 18 March, carries significant diplomatic weight. The visit brought to the forefront the Himalayan kingdom’s strategic significance in India’s foreign policy calculus. Against the backdrop of escalating Chinese influence in the region, this visit was marked by a sense of urgency and a focus on fostering deeper ties with Bhutan. Over the past few decades, China’s meteoric economic rise and assertive diplomatic manoeuvres have posed a significant challenge to India’s historical dominance in the subcontinent. With China’s economy now towering over India’s by fourfold, its ability to wield financial resources and influence in South Asia has become increasingly formidable.
China’s strategic economic cooperation with countries in the region, despite previously having a weaker economy than India’s, has raised concerns over its growing political and diplomatic clout. This influence has been particularly visible in India’s neighbouring countries, where Beijing has employed various tools to sway local elites and shape narratives in its favour. Nowhere is this more evident than in Bhutan, situated in the sensitive eastern Himalayas, where the borders of India, Nepal, and Tibet converge around the strategically crucial Siliguri Corridor.
The Siliguri Corridor, commonly referred to as ‘Chicken’s Neck’, serves as a vital geopolitical and geo-economic link, connecting the Northeastern states of India to the rest of the country. This strategic location holds immense importance for India’s security. If China were to advance towards the Chicken’s Neck, it could potentially reposition defences around Sikkim, thereby mitigating the threat posed to the Chumbi valley. This represents a tangible threat that India could pose to China.
The Chumbi valley, which lies adjacent to Bhutan, poses a direct challenge to India’s security interests. The tense military standoff between Delhi and Beijing in Bhutan’s Doklam plateau during the summer of 2017 highlighted the potential ramifications of China’s growing activity in the region. Despite Bhutan’s steadfast partnership with India and the absence of formal diplomatic relations with China, Beijing has relentlessly pressured Thimphu for a favourable border settlement and equal bilateral relation.
Since 2020, China has laid claim to Bhutan’s Sakteng Wildlife Sanctuary situated west of Tawang. This area holds strategic significance, as it could potentially serve as a base for China to access the Siliguri Corridor. The recent inauguration of the Sela Tunnel by PM Modi has significantly heightened China’s perception of the threat posed by India. The timing of China’s declaration of the Sakteng Wildlife Sanctuary as disputed coincided with the commencement of work on the Sela Tunnel, indicating a concerted effort to assert military dominance.
China’s actions underscore its determination to gain tactical advantages militarily in the region. Therefore, it is imperative to ensure that both India and Bhutan are aligned regarding the trijunction between India, China, and Bhutan. China’s unilateral attempts to alter the trijunction from Batang La to Gipmochi must be met with a unified response to safeguard regional stability and security.
Recognising the evolving dynamics in South Asia, India has begun to reassess its approach to China’s regional challenge. External Affairs Minister S Jaishankar has acknowledged that India cannot maintain its historic primacy in the region solely through assertion. Instead, India now aims to offer deeper economic cooperation to its neighbours, treating them as sovereign equals, while simultaneously developing mutually beneficial security partnerships. Modi’s visit to Bhutan served as a concrete manifestation of this strategic shift.
The joint statement issued after the visit emphasised the enduring partnership between India and Bhutan, encapsulating the sentiment of ‘Bharat for Bhutan and Bhutan for Bharat’. This commitment was bolstered by strong pledges for enhanced consultation and coordination on security issues, as well as initiatives aimed at fostering transformative economic connectivity, both physical and digital.
Prime Minister Tobgay’s gratitude for Modi’s visit, despite logistical challenges and electoral constraints, underscores the symbolic importance of the trip. It reaffirms India’s unwavering commitment to Bhutan’s development and highlights Bhutan’s integral role in India’s broader regional infrastructure and trade initiatives. “A big thank you to my brother, PM @narendramodi Ji, for visiting us. Neither his busy schedule nor inclement weather could prevent him from fulfilling his promise to visit us. This must be the #ModiKaGuarantee phenomenon,” Tobgay said in a post on X.
Modi’s visit to Bhutan was mostly symbolic in nature. It highlighted India’s steadfast dedication to Bhutan’s development, especially in initiatives like the Gelephu Mindfulness City project through likely investment. Additionally, initiatives to expand bilateral collaboration in the fields of energy, development cooperation, youth, education, entrepreneurship and skill development were explored. Moreover, India remained cognisant of Bhutan’s deepening ties with China, particularly in the context of forthcoming boundary agreements. However, India asserted its commitment to not cede ground to Beijing.
Lastly, Modi’s visit to Bhutan represents a significant step in India’s efforts to recalibrate its foreign policy approach in the face of China’s growing influence in the region. By reaffirming its commitment to its “neighbourhood first” policy and strengthening ties with Bhutan, India aims to bolster regional stability and safeguard its security interests. The visit underscores the importance of continued cooperation and coordination among South Asian nations to navigate evolving geopolitical challenges and reinforce the enduring bond between India and its neighbours. (The contributor is an independent researcher)
