West Asian Conflict
By Dhurjati Mukherjee
The West Asian conflict has affected global fertiliser supply. Shipments of it have piled up on the wrong side of the Strait of Hormuz. In India, Algeria and Slovakia, fertiliser plants have shut down or slowed their output due to rising natural gas prices. Australian wheat farmers are planning less and corn and soy farmers in the US are begging their President for relief. Meanwhile, China has restricted fertiliser exports.
Much of the concern about economic disruptions stemming from the Iran conflict centred on the higher price of oil and natural gas. But the cascading effects of the conflict on fertiliser supplies are growing worse by the day, raising prices for farmers globally and threatening to lead to food insecurity in some parts of the world, including India. As West Asia is a key global producer of the commodity, second only to Russia, nearly a third of the world’s fertiliser is shipped through the Strait of Hormuz.
The consequences have been far-reaching, impacting farmers in countries like the US and Brazil who rely on imported fertiliser. Adding to the pressure, it is understood that Russia was unable to step up production due to drone strikes on its factories and ports from its year-long war with Ukraine. It is significant that the WTO warned about the risks of food supplies of many countries. Persian Gulf states could also face food shortages, given their imports for products like rice, corn, soybeans and vegetable oil.
Reports confirm that domestic urea manufacturing has been hit in the West Asia crisis with production falling to 18 lakh tonne in March from an earlier average of 24 lakh tonne. As is well known, the Gulf region accounts for around 20-25 percent of India’s urea exports, 30 percent of diammonium phosphate (DAP) and 50 percent of LNG. The crisis has pushed up costs of inputs such as LNG, ammonia and sulphur, besides increasing freight charge.
The government maintained that there is adequate stock of fertilisers and is tapping alternative sources to boost supplies, even as urea units that had taken annual maintenance shutdowns. The Centre has asked states to monitor any abnormal spike in fertiliser sales during the current ‘lean season’ to prevent stockpiling and black marketing. On diversification of sources, ministry officials pointed out that a global tender has been floated and long-term arrangements have been tied up with countries such as Saudi Arabia and Oman. In addition, sourcing is proposed to be expanded to countries including Russia, Australia, Indonesia, Malaysia and Canada.
The government has also been trying unconventional methods like ‘spot buying’, which is resorted to for immediate operational needs during unexpected supply disruptions. Besides bringing forward the maintenance of fertilizer manufacturing units, it is carrying out a heat-mapping exercise for all districts for early detection and quick response to any signs of trouble.
Dismissing speculations of shortage of soil nutrients due to the conflict in West Asia, official sources pointed out that all partners of India in the fertilizer supply chain have assured the government ‘uninterrupted supplies’ and there will be comfortable stocks by mid-May when the kharif demand peaks. Information &BroadcastingMinister Ashwini Vaishnaw stated recently that urea stock was 6.2 million tonne, one MT higher than this time last year and the availability of DAP at 2.5MT was almost double of last year while NPK stock at 5.6MT is highest ever and 2.5MT more than last year.
India is among the large economies most at risk of worsening food insecurity as global temperatures rise, a new study has found, with projections showing a steady decline in access to adequate and nutritious food under warming scenarios. In fact, the country is set to face a significant decline in food security as global temperatures rise, a new study by the International Institute for Environment and Development (IIED) revealed recently.
The report placed India’s position in a newly developed food security index among the most concerning. Its baseline score of 5.31 is well below the global average of 6.74 — and behind countries such as Brazil (6.72), Mexico (6.36) and Indonesia (5.87). But the outlook worsens under warming scenarios. India’s score is projected to fall to 4.96 at 1.5 degrees Celsius (°C) of global warming, which may happen any time and further to 4.52 at 2°C. The analysis further showed that temperature increases will widen the already significant gap in food security between richer and poorer countries, with the sharpest declines expected in sub-Saharan Africa and South Asia.
The report suggested that India’s vulnerability is shaped by more than just temperature rise. A large share of the country’s population still depends directly or indirectly on climate-sensitive agriculture, while food affordability and nutritional access remain uneven across regions. That means repeated climate shocks such as heatwaves, rainfall disruption or crop failures could have consequences far beyond the farm, affecting household budgets, diet quality and long-term food stability, including exports.
With such a frightening report, it is an added concern that input cost of fertilisers along with pesticides and seeds have increased manifold. Some of the other consequences of the Green Revolution are being felt – the pollution of crops, soil, groundwater, air, the decimation of insect populations, declining soil fertility and the rise in human diseases. Added to this if such conflicts or wars take place, Third World countries may be severely affected as fertilisers are vital for increasing production and productivity.
In such a situation, India’s agri and food products worth $11.8 billion in West Asia are at risk as the war-ravaged situation has been disrupting shipping routes, raising insurance costs and creating uncertainty in logistics, think tank GTRI warned. the region, engulfed in war at present, accounted for 21.8 percent of India’s total agri export in FY25 with cereals, fruits, vegetables, dairy products, and spices accounting for bulk of the basket. Key shipments include rice, bananas, onions and vegetables, pulses, nuts, coffee, tea and a wide range of spices.
According to available data, rice faces the largest potential impact as India exported $4/43 billion of rice to West Asia, accounting for 36.7 percent of the global rice exports, making Gulf countries crucial for producers in Punjab, Haryana, Uttar Pradesh, Andhra Pradesh and Telangana. Apart from rice, India exported $7.48 billion of cereals, fruits, vegetables and spices to West Asia in 2025, with the region accounting for over 29 percent of India’s global exports in this category.
It is a known fact that wars – first between Russia and Ukraine and now the more dangerous one between Israel backed by US and Iran – has had its consequences on varied fronts. India has, no doubt, been a sufferer from various angles and if the latter conflict continues, the country’s exports and imports would be greatly affected. With agricultural exports playing a great role in the total export basket, and on the other hand, prospects of procuring adequate quantities of gas looking not quite favourable, India may have to suffer in the coming months. — INFA