[ Ripi Bagra ]
The recent ouster of Sheikh Hasina as prime minister of Bangladesh and her escape to India has put New Delhi in a difficult diplomatic position. According to The Indian Express, Hasina landed at the Hindon airbase in Ghaziabad on Monday and is expected to seek political asylum in the UK, although it is unclear whether the UK will grant it. This uncertainty poses a challenge for India, which is caught between supporting Hasina, who has been a longstanding ally, and maintaining relations with the new Bangladeshi government.
Historically, India has had strong ties with Hasina, providing her refuge during the 1975 unrest in Bangladesh when her family was assassinated. Under her leadership since 2009, India-Bangladesh relations have significantly strengthened, with advancements in connectivity, border management, and defence cooperation. Hasina’s departure could jeopardise these gains, especially if the new government includes the Bangladesh Nationalist Party (BNP) and the Jamaat-e-Islami, both of which have strained relations with India. The BNP, led by Khaleda Zia, has a history of anti-India rhetoric, and Jamaat-e-Islami has close ties with Pakistan.
Another pressing concern for India is the potential influx of refugees due to violence against minorities in Bangladesh. The Border Security Force (BSF) has already issued a high alert along the India-Bangladesh border to prevent infiltration. The situation is reminiscent of the challenges India faced in Afghanistan with the return of the Taliban, highlighting the geopolitical instability in the region.
The shift in Bangladesh’s political landscape might also tilt the country closer to China, posing a strategic threat to India. The new government, if influenced by the BNP and the Jamaat-e-Islami, could be more aligned with Beijing, disrupting the cooperative projects and security arrangements established under Hasina. India’s investments and connectivity projects in Bangladesh, vital for both countries’ economic growth, could be at risk.
India’s cautious stance is evident as it refrains from making any hasty decisions regarding Hasina’s asylum. Despite National Security Advisor Ajit Doval’s meeting with her, there has been no official response from India. This reflects the complexity of the situation, as India must balance its historical ties with Hasina against the need to engage with the new regime in Dhaka.
Internally, the political turmoil in Bangladesh stems from widespread protests that began over a controversial quota system in government jobs. The unrest escalated, leading to violent demonstrations demanding Hasina’s resignation. The situation culminated in jubilant crowds storming the presidential residence, followed by the announcement of an interim government by Army Chief General Waker-Uz-Zaman.
This upheaval has significant implications for India’s security and economic interests. Under Hasina, Bangladesh served as a buffer against extremist elements and a partner in counterterrorism efforts. The new regime’s approach to these issues remains uncertain, raising concerns about potential destabilisa-tion and increased anti-India activities.
Moreover, the political shift could affect India’s development projects in the Northeast, which heavily rely on stable and cooperative relations with Bangladesh. Projects like cross-border river transportation and energy cooperation, crucial for regional development, might face setbacks. India’s strategic interests, including its counterterrorism initiatives and defense cooperation with Dhaka, could also be compromised.
China’s role in the new political scenario is a critical factor for India. Hasina maintained a balance, ensuring that Chinese investments did not undermine India’s security interests. The new government’s stance towards China will be closely monitored, as it could significantly influence regional dynamics.
India’s diplomatic response must be measured and strategic. While it should express readiness to work with the new government in Dhaka, it must avoid actions that could be perceived as interference. The focus should be on maintaining and expanding economic engagement, leveraging the strong people-to-people ties and cultural affinities that transcend political changes.
India’s past experiences with political transitions in its neighborhood, such as in Afghanistan and the Maldives, offer valuable lessons. In these instances, India adopted a cautious approach, maintaining open channels for dialogue and cooperation despite initial hostilities. This strategy should be applied to the current situation in Bangladesh, allowing for a gradual normalisation of relations.
The immediate future will require India to navigate a complex web of diplomatic challenges. Key issues include ensuring border security, preventing the resurgence of anti-India activities, and sustaining economic and developmental projects. The potential impact on regional stability and India’s strategic interests necessitates a vigilant and proactive stance.
In conclusion, the ousting of Sheikh Hasina and the ensuing political instability in Bangladesh present a significant diplomatic dilemma for India. The historical ties and recent advancements in bilateral relations underscore the complexity of the situation. India must balance its support for Hasina with the need to engage constructively with the new government. The overarching goal should be to preserve and enhance the strategic partnership between the two countries, ensuring stability and mutual growth in the region. (The contributor is an independent researcher and writes on South Asian geopolitics.)
