[ Ripi Bagra ]
On Tuesday, the results of India’s general election were declared. The unexpected result reflects a rejection of the hardcore Hindu nationalist image often associated with Modi’s leadership. Despite the shocks and surprises of the electoral outcome, the National Democratic Alliance (NDA) is set to come back to power, with Modi at the helm. As Modi prepares to lead the nation once again, the international community is keenly observing the potential shifts and continuities in India’s foreign policy. Modi 3.0 will likely build on the achievements and challenges of his previous terms, with significant implications for India’s role in global politics. From strategic alliances to economic diplomacy andregional security, Modi’s third term will be crucial in shaping India’s international trajectory in an increasingly complex and multipolar world.
Strategic Partnerships and Alliances
Over the past decade, India has strategically positioned itself as a non-aligned but influential global player, refusing to be drawn into the binary of great power rivalries, particularly between the U.S. and China. This stance allows India to leverage relationships with multiple major powers to its advantage. For example, India has deepened defence and economic ties with the U.S. while maintaining robust trade relations with Russia and balancing its strategic competition with China through mechanisms like the Quad.
Modi’s relationship with the United States is likely to deepen further, building on the foundations laid during his previous terms. The strategic convergence between the two nations is driven by shared concerns over China’s rise and its assertiveness in the Indo-Pacific region. Initiatives like the Quad (Quadrilateral Security Dialogue) with the US, Japan, and Australia are expected to gain momentum, emphasizing a free and open Indo-Pacific. Enhanced defence cooperation, joint military exercises, and technology transfers will likely characterize this relationship.
India’s historical ties with Russia are expected to remain strong, though they will be tested by India’s growing proximity to the US. Modi’s government will aim to balance this relationship by continuing defence procurements and energy collaborations while subtly navigating the geopolitical sensitivities involving Russia’s strained relations with Western countries. The balancing act between Moscow and Washington will be crucial for Modi’s foreign policy.
The India-China relationship will continue to be complex and cautious. The border skirmishes and the standoff in Ladakh and Arunachal Pradesh have strained bilateral ties. Modi’s approach will likely involve a combination of strategic deterrence and diplomatic engagement to manage the rivalry. India will continue to bolster its infrastructure along the border, increase its defence capabilities, and seek alliances to counterbalance China’s influence.
Regional Security and Diplomacy
Modi’s approach to South Asia is expected to involve a mix of diplomacy and strategic assertiveness. Relations with Pakistan are likely to remain tense, with India’s stance on terrorism and cross-border infiltration being uncompromising. Engagement with other neighbours, like Nepal, Sri Lanka, and Bangladesh, will likelyfocus on economic cooperation, connectivity projects, and cultural diplomacy, aiming to counter China’s influence in the region.
India’s leadership roles in regional and global platforms, such as the G20 presidency, provide it with opportunities to shape international agendas. Under Modi’s leadership, India is likely to continue emphasizing inclusive development, equitable growth, and sustainable practices. The G20 presidency, for instance, is a platform where India can advocate for climate finance, energy security, and the promotion of green technologies, thereby aligning global initiatives with its national policies.
The Indian Ocean Region (IOR) has been a strategic priority for Modi’s government. Enhancing maritime security, safeguarding sea lanes, and promoting economic connectivity will likely be the key focus areas. India’s naval capabilities are expected to be strengthened, and partnerships with littoral states will be deepened through initiatives like the Indian Ocean Rim Association (IORA) and bilateral agreements. India’s role as a net security provider in the IOR will likely be emphasized.
Modi’s third term is expected to focus on enhancing India’s soft power and global image. Cultural diplomacy, promotion of Indian heritage, yoga, and Bollywood will be tools to strengthen India’s soft power. India’s role as a responsible global player in addressing issues like climate change, health crises, and humanitarian aid will be emphasized.
Challenges and Opportunities
One of the major challenges for Modi’s third term will be maintaining a balance between competing global powers. Navigating the strategic rivalry between the US and China, and managing the relationship with Russia amidst its geopolitical tensions with the West, will require adept diplomacy. Modi’s government will need to ensure that India does not become entangled in the power struggles of major global actors.
Ensuring economic stability and growth will be crucial for Modi’s international ambitions. Attracting foreign investment, boosting exports, and fostering innovation will be essential to project India’s economic resilience. Managing internal challenges like unemployment, infrastructure deficits, and regulatory hurdles will have direct implications on India’s global economic engagements.
The geopolitical landscape is marked by volatility, with conflicts, trade wars, and shifting alliances. Modi’s government will need to be agile in responding to these changes, ensuring that India’s strategic interests are protected. Building resilient supply chains, enhancing energy security, and fostering regional stability will be critical.
Conclusion
As Narendra Modi prepares for a probable third term, India’s role in international politics is set to expand and evolve. The country’s ability to maintain strategic autonomy, drive economic growth, address global challenges, and enhance its soft power will be pivotal. These efforts will not only solidify India’s position as a key player on the global stage but also ensure that it continues to navigate the complexities of international relations with a nuanced and balanced approach. (The views and opinions expressed by the contributor are solely their own. She can be reached at ripibagra@outlook.com or @RipiBagra on X)
