[ Ripi Bagra ]
The recent agreement between India and China regarding patrolling arrangements in Eastern Ladakh marks a pivotal moment in their long-standing border dispute. Following China’s aggressive manoeuver in 2020, which included troop massing and the establishment of blockades at several key points along the Line of Actual Control (LAC), New Delhi has responded with a mix of defensive military posturing and robust diplomacy. The latest developments suggest a complex but hopeful path toward restoring stability and trust between the two nations.
The Sino-Indian military standoff, which reached a critical point in 2020, saw confrontations at various points along the LAC. The establishment of blockades at six locations- including the strategic Pangong Tso and the Depsang Bulge- prompted India to bolster its military presence and engage in vigorous diplomatic discussions. India’s strategy has been notably defensive, focusing on both confronting Chinese advances and diplomatically pressing for a rollback of aggressive actions.
In a significant breakthrough, Indian officials announced on October 21, 2023, that the disengagement process has been completed and that an agreement on coordinated patrolling along the LAC has been reached. This development signifies the resolution of two contentious areas: the Depsang Bulge and Charding Nala, which had remained points of friction for over two years.
The agreement involves a multi-layered approach to disengagement and patrolling. As External Affairs Minister S. Jaishankar and Foreign Secretary Vikram Misri confirmed, the deal allows Indian troops to resume patrols to several previously blocked points (PP 10, 11, 11A, 12 and 13) in the Depsang area. In turn, Chinese patrols will also be permitted in certain areas, although specifics remain unclear.
The coordination aspect of the agreement aims to prevent face-offs by spacing patrols appropriately. This innovative approach, tested in the eastern sector, could potentially set a precedent for managing interactions in other disputed areas. The dismantling of prefabricated structures and military equipment by both sides indicates a commitment to adhere to the terms of the agreement.
The current agreement represents a significant achievement for New Delhi, particularly when considering the historical context of Sino-Indian relations. Previous confidence-building measures (CBMs) established in the 1990s aimed to promote peace along the LAC. Notably, the 1996 CBM prohibited the use of firearms, which played a role in limiting violence during the Galwan clashes.
Despite these agreements, important elements have been violated by China, leading to significant distrust. The need for a renewed focus on trust is evident. The restoration of a pre-April 2020 status quo in the Depsang Bulge and Charding Nala is a step forward, but the road to lasting peace will require a comprehensive approach to rebuilding confidence.
Implications of the Agreement
Potential for broader applications: The agreement in Depsang and Demchok could serve as a template for addressing tensions in other disputed areas, such as Yangtse, where recent clashes have occurred. The establishment of coordinated patrolling can help mitigate face-offs and promote a more stable environment along the LAC.
Need for continued diplomacy: While the agreement is a positive development, it does not signify an end to the broader territorial disputes between India and China. Ongoing diplomatic engagement, including potential meetings between Special Representatives, will be crucial for managing peace and addressing other friction points along the LAC.
Military and strategic considerations: The strategic implications of this agreement cannot be overstated. Both nations will likely remain wary of each other’s military capabilities and intentions. While the immediate tensions may ease, long-term stability will depend on how both countries manage their military postures and align their strategic objectives.
Challenges of implementation: The execution of the disengagement agreement is a complex process that will require meticulous coordination between the two militaries. Issues such as the size and frequency of patrols, as well as the management of buffer zones, will necessitate ongoing dialogue and trust-building measures.
Broader regional dynamics: The evolving geopolitical landscape, particularly concerning the Indo-Pacific and the strengthening of alliances like the Quad, will impact Sino-Indian relations. China may perceive such alignments as threats, prompting more assertive military posturing. Thus, India must navigate its relationships with allies while engaging with China.
Conclusion
While the recent Sino-Indian agreement on patrolling arrangements in Eastern Ladakh represents a significant step towards de-escalation, it does not resolve the underlying question of trust. Historical patterns of Chinese behaviour, characterized by assertiveness and strategic ambiguity, fuel skepticism regarding its commitment to the terms of any agreement. Moving forward, restoring trust will require not only adherence to the current agreement but also a broader commitment to transparency, dialogue and genuine cooperation.
As India and China navigate this complex relationship, the focus must remain on building a foundation of trust that goes beyond temporary agreements. Only through sustained diplomatic efforts, clear communication and a willingness to address historical grievances can both nations hope to transform a fraught relationship into one marked by stability and mutual respect. Ultimately, the question remains: Can China be trusted? The answer will shape the future of Sino-Indian relations for years to come.
(The contributor is an Independent researcher, whose area of focus is India-China geopolitics and border studies)
