[ Ripi Bagra ]
The unrest in Manipur, which erupted in May 2023, has plunged the state into a prolonged crisis, causing devastating consequences for its diverse communities. Despite recent years of relative calm, marked by efforts at coexistence among its diverse communities, the state has been unable to escape the shadow of conflict. This recurring conflict raises critical questions: Are there vested interests in prolonging the unrest? Who benefits from the destabilisation of peace in Manipur, and what can be done to address this challenge?
In the last few years, Manipur witnessed a period of comparative stability. The state’s communities, including the Meitei, Kuki, and Naga, had begun to bridge divides and foster coexistence. Grassroots initiatives, inter-community dialogues, and shared aspirations for development seemed to signal a promising path forward.
However, this peace has proven fragile. Despite mutual efforts, moments of harmony are interrupted by isolated incidents that spiral into large-scale conflicts. This cycle of peace and violence reveals the underlying complexities of Manipur’s social and political fabric.
The resurgence of conflict often follows a troubling pattern. Months of calm are shattered by specific incidents. These incidents are amplified by the circulation of pictures and videos on social media, purportedly showing atrocities committed by one community against another. The resulting outrage fuels mistrust, sparking a cycle of retaliation and counter-retaliation.
Behind these seemingly isolated incidents lie people with vested interests who stand to benefit from prolonged unrest. Militia groups in Manipur, many with alleged ties to influential political and administrative figures, wield considerable power. These groups, initially formed to represent community grievances, often operate with significant autonomy and influence, exploiting tensions to maintain their relevance.
At the same time, the communities themselves have always been inward-looking. In a climate of fear and mistrust, there is a tendency to protect one’s own people at all costs, even when wrongdoing is evident. This insular approach undermines accountability and worsens divisions, making reconciliation increasingly difficult.
Manipur’s proximity to Myanmar adds another layer of complexity to the conflict. Myanmar, embroiled in a civil war since the 2021 military coup, has become a significant source of arms for insurgent groups in the region. The civil war has forced Myanmar’s warring factions to seek funding through the illegal arms trade, with Manipur emerging as a key market.
Manipur’s proximity to Myanmar, a key player in the Golden Triangle and the world’s largest producer of opium according to the UNODC, has made the state a hub for drug trafficking. Narcotics from Myanmar flow into Manipur, feeding a thriving local market and spilling over into other parts of India. This fuels addiction, destabilizes communities, and provides funding for armed groups, further intensifying violence and unrest. Those with vested interests, including organised networks and local collaborators, exploit this trade to maintain influence and profits, perpetuating instability in the region. This influx of arms and drugs not only empowers these groups but also poses security threat to India.
In this volatile environment, the armed forces play a crucial role in maintaining law and order. Both the Meitei and Kuki communities have, at various times, accused the armed forces of partiality. However, such claims often reflect the polarised narratives within the communities rather than the reality on the ground.
The armed forces operate under challenging circumstances, tasked with enforcing peace while navigating the sensitivities of a divided society. Accusations of bias, whether real or perceived, undermine their efforts and further erode public confidence. Acknowledging the difficulties faced by security personnel while ensuring transparency in their actions is essential for rebuilding trust.
Misinformation has become a powerful tool in Manipur’s conflict, with both communities twisting incidents to fit their narratives. Social media amplifies these distortions, spreading fear and anger at an unprecedented scale. This manipulation of facts not only fuels tensions but also makes conflict resolution more challenging.
Countering misinformation requires a concerted effort from community leaders, the civil society, and the media. Promoting verified information and fostering dialogue between communities can help dispel false narratives and rebuild trust.
Amid this turmoil, it is the ordinary citizens of Manipur who suffer the most. Families are displaced, livelihoods are disrupted, and the social fabric is torn apart. Educational institutions, marketplaces, and places of worship that once symbolised unity now serve as reminders of the divisions within the state.
The psychological toll of living in a conflict zone is immense. Generations of Manipuris grow up with the shadow of violence and mistrust, creating a cycle of fear and hostility that is difficult to break.
Breaking the cycle of unrest in Manipur requires a collective commitment from all stakeholders. Community leaders must promote accountability by condemning wrongdoing, irrespective of ethnicity, fostering fairness and trust. Strengthened border security and diplomatic engagement with Myanmar are essential to curtail arms and drug trafficking and address its root causes. Grassroots initiatives emphasising shared values and histories, led by civil society and community leaders, can rebuild trust and encourage inter-community dialogue. Finally, countering misinformation through fact-checking and responsible media reporting is crucial to dispelling false narratives.
Manipur’s journey towards lasting peace is fraught with challenges, but it is not impossible. The state’s history of coexistence demonstrates that its people have the capacity to overcome divisions and build a harmonious society. The time has come for all stakeholders, communities, governments, and civil society to work together to ensure that Manipur’s peace is not just an interlude but a lasting reality. (The contributor is an independent researcher. The views expressed are personal.)
