Elections 2024
[ Nani Bath ]
Tawang, a geo-strategically significant frontier space, is known all over as the birth place of the sixth Dalai Lama. It is basically because of this reason that the communist China is fixated over the entire Tawang region.
On 30 March, 2024, China gave ‘standardised’ names to 30 additional locations in Arunachal Pradesh (in total 62). Tawang district, along with Papum Pare, gets the highest ‘standardised’ locations, with seveneach.
The attention of this article is not on the geo-strategic significance of the district, but an understanding of the political significance and electoral dynamics of Tawang as one of the assembly constituencies. Presently, the chief minister’s brother, Tsering Tashi, is representing the constituency.
The constituency remains a focal point for political analysts after it was announced, in a surprising turn of events, that Tsering Tashi was to be replaced as the BJP nominee by Khandu’s uncle (his father’s brother), Tsering Dorjee. It may be difficult to ascertain as to why the incumbent MLA was denied the party ticket. Here, an attempt has been made to fix the ‘broken pieces of information’ and draw a logical connection.
Sources have indicated that Tsering Tashi was in the midst of an anti-incumbency wave – the voters not being happy and satisfied with his leadership and performances. In order to control the situation, the chief minister had to personally intervene. At one point of time, the situation almost went out of the control of the chief minister, prompting him to give out an indication that he himself would contest from Tawang.
Many of the voters and leaders were in favour of Namgey Tsering, one of the main supporters of Tsering Tashi.
The situation was a bit normalised when a committee was constituted to find a consensus candidate. It was headed by the highly respected Thegtse Rinpoche and one of the members was Ngawang Sempa, OSD to the chief minister. The committee came out with the name of Dorjee Norbu. The names of Tsering Tashi and Namgey Tsering were rejected.
However, after the name of Dorjee Norbu was announced, Tsering Dorjee’s name cropped up, and he was issued the BJP ticket. This might have angered Thegtse Rinpoche and all those hoping for a consensus candidate.
Namgey Tsering, who otherwise was ready to accept the committee’s decision, was compelled to announce his candidature. He is contesting as an NPP candidate.
The Tawang episode brings us to a larger question of the ‘PP’ factor as a pan-Arunachal phenomenon. In Arunachal, every voter agrees, or is tutored to agree,that Paise and Pema (chief minister and his ‘blessings’) are the two essential ingredients for contesting an election. In the case of Tawang assembly constituency, none of these ‘ingredients’ looks to be playing a significant role.
In many or almost all other constituencies, particularly in the constituencies in the Abotani belt (Adi, Apatani, Galo, Nyishi, Tagin), the elections seem to revolve round these two factors. No recent elections or happenings were seen outside the orbit of these ‘essential ingredients.’
A leader belonging to the Abotani community went a bit far with his remark, “The Tani leaders are more obedient than school students in front of Paise and Pema.”
The chief minister could ‘manage’ Dorjee Wangdi Kharma, the MLA of Kalaktang, in favour of his cousin, Tseten Chombey.
Wangdi Khirmey is contesting against Tseten Chombey. He might be trying to swim on his community’s sentiment against an ‘outsider’. Tseten is basically from Lumla. Tseten Chombey is a younger brother of late Jambey Tashi, who represented Lumla assembly constituency before his death. Lumla, at present, is being represented by Jambey Tashi’s wife, Tsering Lhamu.
Tseten Chombey and Jambey Tashi are the sons of Dorjee Khandu’s (Pema’s father) half-brother, Goileng. Goileng and Dorjee Khandu share the same mother but different fathers. Dorjee Khandu’s father’s name is Leki Dorjee, and Goileng’s father is Leki Wangchu.
What role did the chief minister play in getting Dongru Siongju elected as an unopposed MLA of Bomdila? How did he ‘manage’ Japu Deru? What role did Kiren Rijiju play? Whose role was more significant? These are some searching questions.
Dongru Siongju’s son is married to Kiren Rijiju’s second daughter (from his first wife).
Two of the other constituencies that look to be defying the ‘essential ingredients’ theory are Dirang and Thrizino-Buragaon. There, the opponents are reported to be giving a tough fight to the official BJP candidates. Is it that the ‘PP’ factor is not working there like in Tawang? May be or may not be. It may also be possible that both PK and KR are constrained to play an implicit role.
This time around, Pema Khandu looks to be playing with ‘calculated political manoeuvres’ sans emotions. His political manoeuvres are through ‘carrot and stick’ policy. He really did not have to use his ‘sticks’. He could manage to silence his opponents, Tage Taki, Tumke Bagra, Bamang Felix and more, just by displaying ‘carrot’. In 2019, he took it as a personal challenge to defeat many of the political opponents – Tanga Byaling, Takam Pario, Kumar Waii, etc.
There is a reason, or many reasons, for his ‘calculated political manoeuvres’. The first is the ‘KR’ factor. Kiren Rijiju, an old-timer BJP leader with connections at 6-A, Deen Dayal Upadhaya Marg, New Delhi and Dr Hedgewar Bhawan, Nagpur, remains the principal challenge to his leadership. Secondly, his cases in the Supreme Court- one of the cases being examined by the comptroller and auditor general. Thirdly, many of my sources have confirmed that the DCM, Chowna Mein, is showing a sign of fulfilling his ‘last wish’ should there be a ‘consensus situation’.
Coming to the dynamics in the parliamentary elections, a new trend has been set for the future electoral politics with the entry of the Arunachal Christian Forum and the Pan Arunachal Joint Steering Committee.
The Arunachal Christian Forum has issued a ‘notification’, deciding to participate in the election process in the 2024 parliamentary elections to “elect the leaders who supports (sic) our demands.” It took the names of INC candidates Nabam Tuki (West) and Bosiram Siram (East). The demands include construction of a church in Tawang and repeal of the Arunachal Pradesh Freedom of Religion Act, 1978. In its support, the Arunachal Pradesh Catholic Association was more categorical, and writes that “membership of a national level coalition is more important than oratorial skills.” The statement looks to be directly against Kiren Rijiju. The Pentacostal Christian Fellowship Church echoes similar sentiment.
The Pan Arunachal Joint Steering Committee was formed for the reformation of the Arunachal Pradesh Public Service Commission. The committee decides to field a candidate, Techi Rana, in the West parliamentary constituency. There are significant numbers among the youths who are unhappy with the functioning of the commission and the way the government had handled the situation when they were protesting against the paper leakages. They were looking for ‘revenge’ for the treatment meted out to them during and after the protests.
The entry of the PAJSC candidate, however, is filled with controversies. The decision to enter electoral politics did not have the consent of Techi Puru, the chairman of the committee. The PAJSC’s decision, many feel, is politically motivated. It is “planting from the above,” a prominent member of the PAJSC says.
Tadak Nalo, the vice-chairman of the committee, is the eldest son a former minister, Tanga Byaling, who is contesting from Nacho assembly constituency as an INC candidate. Nalo himself had announced that the PAJSC would form a political party after the elections.
Having analysed the ticket distribution patterns of the BJP, it can be safely deduced that the party did not take into account the organisational loyalty, party discipline, commitment to ‘indigenous’ causes, etc. What it was concerned about was another ‘PP’ factor, ie, Power Politics. (Nani Bath is a faculty member in the political science department of Rajiv Gandhi University, Doimukh. He can be contacted at nanibath@rediffmail.com)
