[ Ripi Bagra ]
The escalating tensions between India and China along their disputed border have once again drawn international attention, with US intelligence agencies warning of a “potential” armed conflict. Both nations have maintained large troop deployments, and sporadic encounters between their militaries continue, heightening the risk of miscalculation and escalation. Despite efforts to ease tensions, the border dispute “will remain a strain” on their bilateral relationship, according to the annual threat assessment released by the Director of National Intelligence.
The assessment further claims that China’s intentions to establish overseas military bases, including in neighbouring countries like Sri Lanka and Pakistan, have further fuelled apprehensions about its expanding influence and power projection efforts. This development underscores Beijing’s strategic ambitions to safeguard its interests abroad and assert itself as a global player in military affairs. The PLA’s pursuit of modernisation and its aspirations to become a world-class military by 2049 adds another dimension to the geopolitical landscape, prompting concerns about regional stability and security.
The situation along the India-China border has been tense since the military standoff in the Ladakh sector began in May 2020. Both sides have deployed a significant number of troops, with India emphasising that normalisation of bilateral relations hinges on achieving peace and tranquillity in the border areas. Infrastructure projects, such as the recently inaugurated Sela tunnel, reflect India’s efforts to enhance connectivity and fortify defence in strategic regions, signalling its resolve to protect its territorial integrity.
The escalation of military posturing has raised concerns about the potential for conflict escalation. Despite numerous rounds of talks aimed at resolving the standoff, a definitive breakthrough has remained elusive. Both countries have deployed additional troops to the border region, further heightening tensions and increasing the risk of inadvertent clashes.
News agency Bloomberg reported that India has recently made a significant move to bolster its disputed border with China by reallocating 10,000 soldiers from its western border to guard a stretch of the frontier with China. India had already repositioned an additional 50,000 troops along its border with China in 2021. This move marked a significant escalation in tensions between the two nuclear-armed neighbours and led to a flurry of military-related infrastructure upgrades and deployments of missiles and aircraft on both sides of the border.
Military demonstrations and exercises by both sides have only served to heighten tensions. News magazine Newsweek reported that China carried out a live-fire test in the Karakorum plateau, a contested border, to showcase its military capabilities and determination to assert control over disputed territories. The timing of China’s military drill raises questions: Is it mere posturing or indicative of preparation for a significant event? Is China attempting to instigate a fresh dispute? The decision to conduct such exercises immediately after India’s missile test, especially with India’s elections coming up in a few months prompts speculation about the underlying motives.
India conducted its missile test on 11 March, underscoring its readiness to defend against perceived threats and maintain strategic deterrence. India’s successful test of the Agni-5 missile, equipped with multiple independently targetable reentry vehicle (MIRV) technology, marks its entry into a select group of nations possessing this capability. These missiles not only have the capacity to inflict significant damage on adversaries but also possess the ability to evade most defence systems.
On 9 March, Prime Minister Narendra Modi inaugurated the world’s largest bi-lane tunnel, known as the Sela tunnel. The inauguration of the Sela tunnel marks a significant milestone in India’s infrastructure development, particularly in the context of border security and connectivity. Situated at an altitude of 13,000 feet in Arunachal Pradesh, the tunnel provides all-weather connectivity to Tawang, a strategically important region near the India-China border.
The Tawang region in Arunachal holds significant strategic importance in the India-China relationship, with the People’s Republic of China laying historical claims to the area, citing ties to the 6th Dalai Lama’s birth there in the 17th century. Despite this, there has been a noticeable absence of Indian prime ministers visiting Tawang over the years, leaving some observers puzzled.
The prime minister recently inaugurated the Sela tunnel remotely from Itanagar, the capital of Arunachal, rather than making a physical visit to Tawang itself. This decision, while symbolically significant, missed an opportunity to assert India’s sovereignty over the disputed territory, particularly in the wake of successful Indian efforts to repel a People’s Liberation Army intrusion into the region in December 2022.
Diplomatic efforts have been ongoing to defuse tensions and find a peaceful resolution. In an event in New Delhi, External Affairs Minister S Jaishankar emphasised the importance of reducing forces along the line of actual control (LAC) and adhering to existing agreements during discussions with Chinese counterparts. However, the persistence of the border dispute and the absence of a comprehensive resolution mechanism continue to hinder progress towards lasting peace. (The contributor is an independent researcher)
